PepsiCo is running out of carrots. At about 790 million gallons of Gatorade a year, coloring fruit punch alone would take around 90,000 tons of black carrots, a crop the US mostly imports from India and Turkey.
Gatorade will pull artificial color from three flavors this fall: fruit punch, lemon lime, and orange. Fruit punch switches to color from black carrot and purple sweet potato. Lemon lime to beta-carotene, the orange pigment in carrots and dark leafy greens.
But to match the same shade, a plant-based color takes up to 10x the volume of a synthetic dye like Red 40. For fruit punch, about two black carrots per bottle. Once the whole US food industry switches, demand for natural colors rises 400 to 500%.
Orange was supposed to get natural beta-carotene, but will use synthetic beta-carotene for now. PepsiCo told the FT: "We just couldn't get enough to do the orange."
The Danish company Oterra sells about 1,200 natural colors, black carrot color among them. Black carrot color already exists and the FDA permits it.
PepsiCo, Conagra and Smucker have said they'll drop artificial dyes by the end of 2027. All three will buy natural color from many of the same crops, at the same time. Natural colorant prices are modeled to rise anywhere from 53% to over 1,000%, depending on how fast the industry moves.
The solution is precision fermentation. Put the genes for the plant's pigment-making enzymes into a microbe, feed it sugar, and let the microbe make the pigment. It already works for other colors. Impossible Burger's red comes from a soy gene put into yeast, and the FDA has allowed it since 2019.
Anthocyanin, the red in black carrots, is harder. A beet red needs about three plant genes in the yeast. Anthocyanin needs about ten, and the yeast breaks down some of the pigment it makes. So far this only works in the lab, and in tiny amounts.
Oterra is working toward FDA approval for a fermented replacement for Red 40, with a commercial product targeted in about three years.
The future of Gatorade depends on fermentation.