I've worked up an assessment of U.S. and Israeli missile defense interceptor expenditures since June 13 Based on video evidence AT LEAST, 39 THAAD, 34 Arrow-3, & ~9 Arrow-2s have been used. For more on the methodology, ABM sites in Israel, and implications, check out the article

PONI has opened applications for a fall intern! The PONI interns will provide assistance to the team, learn more on deterrence, arms control, and disarmament, support programming, and have the opportunity to produce an independent research product for the Next Generation Nuclear Network website. To receive priority consideration, please apply by Monday, September 28: job-boards.greenhouse.io/cen…

She is absolutely correct too!

Perhaps the breathless speculation that AI will automate away the analyst, or much of the analytic burden, is a bit premature?

In recent months, there's been some really great research on Iran's nuclear sites. Hat tip to OSINT experts @DAVIDHALBRIGHT1, @StrickerNonpro, @NicoleGrajewski, @dex_eve, and @sam_lair, and strong analysis from next-gen experts including @baileyschiff. There's been some discussion about overlap in recent Pickaxe Mountain analysis. Happy to speak to what our work contributed to a growing body of research by several organizations and media outlets, including @TheGoodISIS, @CNN, and @JamesMartinCNS: -We used 6 years of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to identify more activity at Pickaxe Mountain this year than ever before, not just optical imagery to show a change in activity. -We offered an original policy analysis comparing the difficulty of striking Fordow versus Pickaxe Mountain, including with GBU-57s: Pickaxe is much harder to hit because it is buried deeper in a granite mountain. -We found evidence of external reinforcement of the portal tunnel entrances at Pickaxe Mountain in August of 2026. My hope is that this contributes to the ongoing community-wide effort to address the challenges of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran's nuclear activity has been one of the biggest challenges to the nuclear regime for decades, and tracking it while offering concrete policy solutions will take a diverse field of experts working on the problem. As ever, I’m proud of PONI’s work and look forward to further discussions on Iran’s nuclear program across our multi-generational and ambitious network.

I am tired of hearing about the impending arms race. horsdoeuvresofbattle.substac…

🆕 Nothing New Under the Golden Dome: Space-Based Interceptors in the Trump Administration by @Sam_Lair, @ArmsControlWonk, and @AaronStein1. For this report, the authors developed a model to tailor the size of space-based interceptor satellite constellations to various adversary missile threats and estimate the cost. Click to read their conclusions. buff.ly/zD7PDN8

Trump says North Korea has "57 very powerful nuclear weapons." 57 is an oddly specific number. A short 🧵on why the real number is almost certainly higher.

My new, go-to answer when asked where the paper I promised is