Lead analyst at @jrf_uk for social security and economics. Previously @NEF @policy_practice
London
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Sam Tims retweeted
📢Your essential guide to poverty in the UK is out!
When Labour came to power, very deep poverty & child poverty were at record levels. Some vital changes have been made- like scrapping the two child limit- but that needs to be the beginning not the end of their ambition.
Poverty is deepening.
🔎 Our #UKPoverty2026 report was launched this morning.
People in very deep poverty now make up the biggest group of people in poverty, at 6.8 million people.
This is unacceptable for the fifth richest country in the world, and it has consequences.
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New DWP forecasts show that spending on working-age social security is expected to be stable over the rest of the parliament at 5.1% of GDP
This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing cuts
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The latest Personal Independence Payment data shows a further slowing of applications, with average claims down 7% in the year to October
The largest reduction in new claims is from over 45s
The OBR expects monthly applications to fall to around 60,000 during the parliament
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Sam Tims retweeted
Like all too many children in the UK today, I grew up poor. I am no longer poor, and I am delighted to pay higher taxes to reduce - or ideally eliminate - child poverty. 1/3
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Scrapping the two-child limit will significantly reduce child poverty over the parliament and improve the living standards outlook for low-income families
But more is needed to improve incomes, through higher earnings, lower housing costs, and a stronger social security system
But, interventions at the #Budget2025 have mitigated the fall for lower income families, helping to reverse some of the rising inequality seen during the first half of the decade.
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Brilliant to see that the two-child limit will be scrapped, lifting 450,000 children out of poverty in 2029/30
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Good to see DWP accepting much of the @CommonsWorkPen recommendations for improving jobcentres
Moving from a one-size fits all to a tailored approach will improve the relationship people have with their work coach, help them find better jobs, and improve their economic security
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The full response to the committee is here: committees.parliament.uk/pub…
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In new @jrf_uk analysis with @KatieSchmuecker we show how cost-effective improvements to social security can quickly improve the living standards outlook for families
Scrapping the two-child limit and creating an income floor in Universal Credit would make a real difference
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Improvements of this scale are urgently needed.
Families with children saw unprecedented reductions in their income last parliament and could do so again given the poor economic outlook
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Analysis from @jrf_uk this week suggests this could be the worst parliament for living standards since detailed records began
This doesn't have to be the case, but clearly more needs to be done to boost household incomes and ensure every family can afford the essentials
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But these projections can also be downgraded
As my colleague @chrisbelfield points out, lower productivity growth will make us poorer
Last week, the @FT speculated on whether the OBR would downgrade its productivity forecast and what this would mean for the how the Chancellor would meet her fiscal rules.
But this debate misses the most important impact.
Lower productivity growth will make households poorer.
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For the full write-up of the analysis from @chrisbelfield, @StatsPeter, and myself see the link below
jrf.org.uk/cost-of-living/a-…
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