Founder @ McDuck Enterprises, Adventure Capitalist, Pince-nez glasses and spats aficionado. 95% Intraday Speculator.

Europe
While all the sell side is preaching $META, Oppenheimer has a more cautious take today. I'm eyeing whether META could take a small breather today. Meta shares have rallied to $778, leaving the stock trading at 25.5x 2026E EPS and 24.5x 2027E EPS (a premium vs. Alphabet at 21.6x 2027E). Oppenheimer argues that the market is over extrapolating the early download success of Meta’s AI assistant, Muse, while drastically under-modeling capital intensity, operating expenses, and the timeline required to turn Muse into an actual business. Opco ran a bull case subscription model assuming Muse sustains 500k daily downloads through YE27 (reaching 220M cumulative downloads), achieves an unprecedented 100% download>DAU conversion, suffers zero user churn, and immediately monetizes 28% of users at a $21.60/mo ARPU. Even under these unrealistic assumptions, Muse subscription revenue in 2027E would be $11B which is representing basically only 4% upside to consensus revenue and 9% incremental to Street EBIT.
7
8,807
My hunch is every lawyer gonna argue that it is not force majeure and we have a legal battle on top. Not a good look. $ORCL
$ORCL 's force majeure - what it means (explained by AI based on the available headlines)
2
1,751
"See he wears Crocs too today, so I made the right choice for a first date attire"
One of my guys took a first date to the meta product announcement. wtf is wrong with people.
2
888
MScience posted a rather scathing note on $AMD today. They are saying data center momentum deteriorated sharply in early Sep as new CPU deployment volumes plunged & turned neg YoY. It's undercut by a deteriorating product mix where flagship Turin chips managed just over half of new additions to reach only 30.4% of total instances. Compounding these CPU headwinds, public cloud accelerator megawattage growth decelerated from 71% in Aug down to 68%, falling far behind overall CPU infrastructure growth at 93%. AMD is losing volume velocity precisely where market expansion is strongest, leaving higher per-instance power draw as a weak substitute for real deployment scale.
4
4
28
12,543
Checking all the inboxes every morning to find a nugget of actionable sell side report:
MEME FOLDER
1
9
1,956
"We respect and appreciate the Muse vision but wouldn’t necessarily view any of our takes from Zuckerberg’s keynote to be immediately actionable. That’s ok." Mahaney from Evercore comments $META. lol.
1
5
1,273
Don't construct a bullish mental gymnastics routine to salvage a weak thesis. There is a legitimate security tailwind from agentic AI traffic, but we might be looking at the wrong side of the wire. As agents grow, websites need bot detection, rate limiters, and content licensing firewalls to govern which AI agents can scrape or interact with their sites. This will be captured by whoever sits in front of the destination web servers. $FSLY has has expanded its security portfolio but $NET and $AKAM hold the dominant share for inbound bot mitigation. FSLY edge is ultra low latency programmable delivery for sophisticated engineering teams, but NET owns the enterprise perimeter where site owners buy “one stop shop” bot blockers. There is sadly not too much in it for FSLY in this low margin egress biz.
So $FSLY is the egress relay that lets $meta muse present agent as human browser and they then sell content guard to the websites. Nice arms business! $fsly to da moon
5
26
5,003
Kinda feels like $META had this huge crescendo of a narrative buildup and we got “yo here’s a tamagochi”.
2
18
3,423
This is a good example of mixing up two completely different enterprise sales dynamics. People should really be more nuanced than herding the “omg stock involved, buy stock” mentality. The idea I get is that "delivery is top-of-funnel for security" is $NET standard corporate narrative, and $FSLY has spent years pushing it with Signal Sciences. But applying that logic to $META Muse routing outbound agent traffic is a fundamental misread. For a the cross sell to work, the entity buying delivery must be the entity that buys security, in this case META. FSLY is not selling delivery to random websites but outbound proxy transit. META has world class security teams - not going to use FSLY WAF or bot management to protect their outbound web scraping. And FSLY can not sell to destination website because the destination website is not FSLY customer as it is sitting on the client side, not the server side.
Replying to @ScroogeCap
The opportunity is in the security cross sell of that traffic. Delivery is just top of funnel
8
2,685
This is an interesting take but few things to keep in mind: First of all, $FSLY is being used as dumb pipe egress: $META is essentially renting anonymized, distributed pipe capacity. Second, FSLY doesn't own the client & has no soft lock-in here. Meta’s orchestration layer dynamically routes traffic across $AMZN AWS, $NET, FSLY, and Meta direct. And margins on egress routing are razor thin so selling outbound bandwidth to hyperscalers who aggressively negotiate per-gigabyte pricing is a volume grind, not a proprietary high-margin AI software moat.
Interesting $FSLY finding from testing Meta Muse. Through a series of hundreds of tests, it appears that the $FSLY role with Meta Muse is greater than analysts have noted Over the past week, I created several test websites and ran 738 controlled tests to send traffic from Muse agents to my websites I set up analytics on my website, and I was able to track things like IP address, user agent, operating system, etc From the IP addresses, across the 738 tests, Muse sent traffic from: -Cloudflare: 37.0% -Fastly: 29.3% -Meta: 19.4% -AWS: 14.4% Cloudflare is not a surprise – as there has been a lot of analyst commentary about Muse using Cloudflare. Fastly, on the other hand, was a surprising result I ran many different situations and tasks to try to understand why, or when, Muse sends traffic through Fastly – or others. And when I looked deeper, Muse used Fastly for 100% of the tests when browser navigation was required (e.g., “go to my favorite restaurant’s website and find me the menu”). And when Muse was requested to navigate on a website (e.g., make me a doctor appointment), Fastly was used in 100% of tests Then in other situations, for example when an API is involved or a curl request required, Cloudflare was used in 100% of tests Lastly, when requesting Muse to search the web, Muse split traffic through Fastly, Cloudflare, Meta directly, and AWS
3
1
30
6,685
We’ve made the full circle back to end of ‘23 with “Omg AI kills $GOOGL ad business”
The ad business as we know it is under serious threat and Amazon blocking Meta’s Muse is the perfect example of why. If AI agents become the main interface people use to shop, search and make decisions, the entire advertising funnel starts to break. Instead of going to Amazon, searching for a product, scrolling through sponsored listings and clicking ads, you could simply tell an AI agent what you want and let it compare products, prices and reviews for you. At that point, Amazon risks becoming just another supplier while the AI agent owns the relationship with the customer. Google could face the same problem on an even larger scale. Google makes money because people search for things and businesses pay to appear in front of those searches. But if people stop searching and start telling AI agents to find the best hotel, product, restaurant, flight or service for them, there are fewer searches, fewer clicks and fewer opportunities to show ads. The value starts shifting away from whoever owns the website or search engine and toward whoever owns the AI agent making the decision. That is the bigger reason companies like Amazon have every incentive to fight this. AI agents do not just threaten traffic but rather threaten the entire business model built around controlling what users see before they make a purchase. If agents become the new front door to the internet, advertising as we know it could look completely different.
8
2,239
Edgewater today saying $MPWR and $IFX seen as lead VRM suppliers on OAI’s Jalapeno at CLS, with 2027 TAM >$100M and MPWR already booking >$50M.
1
1
14
1,741
Good to see that he has a sign with his name on the desk so people can recognize him. $META
Zuck moved his desk to $META AI Lab in April. How could anybody in their sane mind bet against this?
9
2,811
Edgewater is out with a scathing nugget on $SANM Wiwynn is taking a larger role as a partner for AMD Helios rack assembly. Their checks suggest SANM MI450 rack assembly is facing challenges, and AMD is pushing other partners, particularly Wiwynn.
1
979
MScience is out negative on $GOOGL ads today. The project a deceleration in Google advertising revenue because ad spend has normalized following temporary, outsized late-Q2 strength fueled by the World Cup and an earlier Prime Day. The slowdown is led by YouTube and Network revs. Furthermore, steep ongoing declines in ad impressions and resulting pricing headwinds, alongside further run-rate moderation heading into September across regions like the U.S. and Latin America, continue to weigh on growth.
4
1,131
Scrooge McDuck retweeted
Combine MTK winning $GOOGL TPU and Anth/OAI slowdown ($AVGO 1-2 and 3 customers) - we might see some selling in $AVGO today. According to Taiwanese supply chain rumors, Google’s 2028 TPU generation will consist of two chips: Humufish and Triggerfish. MediaTek is said to have won both design contracts. (h/t @jukan05)
1
2
8
2,487
Scrooge McDuck retweeted
What's hot on X this morning? Morning radar | 24h X attention | Sep 18, 2026 1. $AVA 472 mentions 2. $GFS 158 mentions 3. $SDGR 147 mentions AI stock conversation leaders. Attention, not price gains. tradersecho.com/marketpulse
1
1
313
Warren Buffett Steps Down as Berkshire Chairman and Names Son to Replace Him. "Father Time always wins," said in a letter to shareholders. He will remain on the board as chairman emeritus. Another win for Masayoshi lol.
718
Brosephs really need 4x42” setups to underperform $SPY 8% p.a
シドニーの金融・クオンツ企業の待遇が異次元すぎる ・新卒で年収5000万円越え ・Tシャツ・短パン・サンダル出勤 ・マルチモニター(42型×4枚) ・出社前にサーフィンを楽しむ ・専属シェフの無料ランチ、マッサージ、ジム使い放題 ウォール街の激務文化とは真逆で、オーストラリアのライフスタイルと超ハイテク環境が組み合わさった結果、世界中から数学・エンジニアの天才が集まってるらしい。
7
1,712