Energy Abundance, AI Power & Data Centers, NBA, & Rap posts. Background in equity & credit markets, startups, & IB. Personal views NOT employers. NOT advice.
Chicago, IL
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Again, no sensitive information appears to have been leaked but OpenAI is pausing development to get a better handle on these tests
Not great press given everything going on at the moment
The concern here ofc is less about the specific tests but our inability to appropriately ringfence agents in controlled environments. The concern becomes when malicious actors with bad intent get the same access to powerful tools
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Been a hater for a while since Opus 4.5 tbh (which was magical). 4.6-5.0 were just not hit for me.
5.5 is a return to form. Anthropic cooked. The intelligence to speed is amazing + continued great front-end design.
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If you were wondering if NVIDIA was going to get more or less involved with the data center ecosystem directly...
OPENAI’S FORMER DATA CENTER HEAD JOINS NVIDIA
Chris Malone, OpenAI’s former head of data centers, has joined $NVDA as VP of its DSX Platform, which helps customers design and build AI data centers around Nvidia’s infrastructure.
Malone left OpenAI in August after joining in early 2025 following the launch of Stargate. He previously worked on data center infrastructure at both Meta and Google.
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Related, while AI adoption is broadening out, AI spending concentration is getting more concentrated from a base that was already higher than historical norms.
"The top 10% of customers account for 99.5% of model-serving spend and 99% of neocloud spend, leaving the bottom 90% of firms with 0.5% and 1%. For comparison, non-AI SaaS is at 91.8% and CRM at 84.2%, where the long tail still contributes a real 15.8%."
1) either this concerns you as a small group of customers slowing down has disproportionate impact
2) or you argue that we are still so far away from penetrating the potential TAM
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Related which also gives you a sense of the rate of change
Wolfe: "The 5Y outlook calls for ~130GW of gas capacity adds - a meaningful step-up from the 74GW projected this time last year and just 28GW back in 2018. The data center build out is the major driver of this surge since"
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We should all continue to have humility around the gap between our abilities and the models. Rate of progress is blistering. Brett is higher signal on this topic than most.
Analysts who haven’t had a good call in 12 months nor update their models will say AI can’t do the job and Brett is building literal systems that do all this in rapid loops.
In April of this year, I attempted to build out AI-native coverage on my old healthcare coverage (153 healthcare stocks).
Some things worked nicely, but I hit four walls that shut down progress:
1) AI Excel wasn't good enough (the biggest issue)
2) The token bill for the workflows I was building added up FAST and I think I would have ended up well into the six-figures to do it right (a little steep for a pedagogical curiosity, lol)
3) I still had this nagging feeling that the outputs were AI slop and not incisive enough to really drive insight & conviction sufficient to construct a 15x25 paper portfolio
4) It was really hard to gather the right context without doing some heavy duty data engineering (the MCP stack was where it was today, and, again, thanks to my friends at CarbonArc, Daloopa, BigData & Canary for their pedagogical generosity i.e. giving me free pipes to explore).
Fast forward five months, I think this is possible. Or at least *much closer*.
Just today, I've updated 3 dozen models (thanks to my friends at Daloopa for raising my data call ceiling!) with a full validation loop embedded into the Skill (the ability of Opus 5.5 to adhere to a detailed Skill in the token inefficient Excel wrapper is pretty remarkable).
I was the guy ripping apart the AI slop tweets 24 months ago saying "AI can do anything a hedge fund analyst can do", but we are getting much closer to this becoming a reality. Simultaneously a little scary and a lot exciting.
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And in the meantime we’re adding some pretty big payers into T&D systems that have been ignored + spread rate base investments across more payers
New grid connected data centers trigger additional gas generation in the short run (or coal or oil!) as well, because those are the units on the margin.
In the medium/long run:
- the BTM gas sites connect to the grid, utilize whatever the grid mix is, and the on-site gas becomes backup
- the originally grid connected data centers consume the same grid power
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"UBS Evidence Lab data currently shows 57/130GW of operational/pipeline capacity in N Am. For Europe, it is 17/30GW."
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"The AI build-out is on track to become the biggest economic bet in U.S. history, dwarfing the investments made to fund other huge U.S. infrastructure projects such as the railroads, the highway system and the plumbing for the internet."
Creating jobs, stock market wealth, +inflation
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