NFL THURSDAY PROP OF THE DAY #1 🏈
Kyle Pitts "O" 34.5 Rec Yds
(-115
@DraftKings)
#DirtyBirds #GoPackGo
Kyle Pitts finished last season averaging 42.9 yards a game and cleared a line like this in 7 of his final 12 outings, a stretch that included big weeks of 166, 90 and 82. This season has looked ugly on the surface, a near nothing outing in Week 1 followed by just 15 yards in Week 2, but both of those games came with Cooper Rush and then Jack Strand under center while Michael Penix Jr. recovered from his torn ACL, not a real reflection of what this offense looks like with an actual quarterback throwing him the ball. Penix is now back and confirmed as the starter for this one, and last season specifically with him at QB, Pitts covered his line in 8 of 9 starts, missing only once.
The underlying profile backs this up even further. Last season Pitts ranked inside the top 3 in the league in both yards per reception at 10.6 and yards after catch per reception at 4.5, showing he does real damage after the catch rather than just piling up empty targets, and he was productive against every coverage shell, running a strong 2.38 yards per route against man and 1.72 against zone. His target share and route count cratered these first two weeks under the backup quarterbacks, sitting at just 7.4%, but that number is tied directly to who was throwing him the ball and should climb back toward last year's 21.6% share now that Penix is in the lineup.
The matchup script lines up well too. Green Bay's defense is built to take away the big play and double the top receiver, which tends to leave the middle of the field and the intermediate sideline open, exactly where a big bodied seam threat like Pitts does his work, and we already saw that play out this season when T.J. Hockenson cleared his own line against this same Packers defense by 47%. Green Bay is also dealing with its own injuries up front and at receiver, keeping this from being the lopsided game Atlanta's 0 and 2 start might suggest, and with Penix back the Falcons project as only a short underdog, pointing toward a game where Atlanta stays competitive enough to keep throwing into the fourth quarter.
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