CFA. Caution: will tweet a lot (of bad opinions) about sports (NFL/MLB), sabermetrics, movies (especially 00s comedies), and television. Sometimes my dogs too.
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Friends: I started a Substack called "The Analytics Say..." where I'm going to be writing about thoughts that are too long for Twitter.
It is free and will always be free.
My first post is on where does the Royals organization goes from here
theanalyticssay.substack.com…
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Okay I didn't consider the Eagles may stink. Though to be fair 1) Vegas still had then as favorites I just thought the line should be more and 2) fumble in their own 20 and an end zone pick by the backup TD. Didn't expect the Eagles defense would get so cooked but lesson learned
What am I missing here? Bears have a pretty poor defense and are starting their 3rd string QB who hasn't played an NFL down since 2023. Eagles may not be beasts again but only -3.5 in Chicago seems low
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IMO an unsportsmanlike conduct should stand as a non-offsetting foul in the NFL like in college.
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Just a couple of 2.5 win players
Kody Clemens set new career highs across the board for the @Twins! 💪
ALT Kody Clemens, Minnesota Twins 27 HR 81 RBI .460 SLG .758 OPS Pictured: Kody Clemens rounds the bases after hitting a home run. He wears a dark blue Twins jersey with a dark blue batting helmet.
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Had to dig this one up, Bears/Falcons 2008. Atlanta was down 19-20 at 11 seconds left on the kickoff. Bears squibbed it in bounds, Falcons offense took the field with 6 seconds left, made the FG with 1 second left. So the ESPN tweet is true if you just go with the kickoff clock
IT'S NOT OVER, TIL IT'S OVER!
The Ravens started their drive with 0:07 seconds left in regulation, the latest start to a game-winning drive off of a kickoff since 1978 (including playoffs).
This is the first game in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) that each team made a FG in the last 0:10 of the fourth quarter 😮
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Disagree here that Darnold can't put up birdies. Was 3rd in big time throw rate in 2025 and 6th in 2024. He's got the bozo gene for sure (you want your QB to) and it gets out more than you'd like but there's high end play that most middle tier QBs don't have
A lot of our middle tier of QBs (Nix, Darnold, Bryce all come to mind) have done wonderful in their careers by playing within themselves. They minimize the bogeys.
But when they run into good defenses, they don't have the capacity for birdies that the other QBs do.
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What am I missing here? Bears have a pretty poor defense and are starting their 3rd string QB who hasn't played an NFL down since 2023. Eagles may not be beasts again but only -3.5 in Chicago seems low
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Pass rush win rate and double team rate of edge defenders so far in 2026 (per PFF)
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PFF released an "adjusted pass rush grade" two weeks ago. Still not entirely sure I understand the concept but here is PFF grade and adjusted PFF grade (which is expressed in percentiles).
"in that situation with regards to down-and-distance and number of blockers faced."
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Okay so if you are familiar with the old scatterplots that Timo Riske at PFF used to tweet out, this is just a version of that, which adjusts for opponent, help, dropback type, time to throw, etc.
pff.com/news/nfl-adjusting-p…
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I like this format a bit more, which includes the overall PFF grade. The goal here is to try to show a bit more at how that QB arrived at that overall grade.
PFF adding the positive% and negative% graded plays gives us some more illustration tools. Two images here: first is pos% and neg% share for each QB (sorted by highest net pos%), second is the same pos% and neg% but with overall PFF grade to visualize how the QB arrived there
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Here is how this looked last year and in 2024
PFF adding the positive% and negative% graded plays gives us some more illustration tools. Two images here: first is pos% and neg% share for each QB (sorted by highest net pos%), second is the same pos% and neg% but with overall PFF grade to visualize how the QB arrived there
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PFF adding the positive% and negative% graded plays gives us some more illustration tools. Two images here: first is pos% and neg% share for each QB (sorted by highest net pos%), second is the same pos% and neg% but with overall PFF grade to visualize how the QB arrived there
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Here is your chance to sound smart during Oscar season by seeing this film. It's going to be nominated for best picture and a bunch of other awards, and might even win the big one.
The new trailer for ‘LA BOLA NEGRA’ has been released.
The film follows the inter-connected lives of 3 gay men across 3 different eras.
In theaters starting on October 16 — Netflix's longest theatrical run.
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