Where founders and community owners launch prediction markets. @shiftmarkets
295 Madison Avenue NYC 10017
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Prediction markets hit $1.2 billion a month in early 2025.
By May 2026, that number reached $28 billion.
Robinhood alone traded 8.8 billion event contracts in Q1. That’s the revenue power prediction markets has.
Nothing in finance is moving faster, and most of the markets that will define this category don’t exist yet. 👇
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Event contract moves, agent trades your portfolio.
Prediction markets just became an API for every fintech builder out there
Whoever builds the agents on top of that signal is sitting on the next wave of startups...
The next era of prediction markets:
• AI Agents to monitor event contracts and take actions.
• Live probability data as a signal to trade any other asset class.
• Market-moving events directly on stock pages.
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Apple is hiring an Apple Pay strategist who understands stablecoins. Google is hiring a Hong Kong architect who understands tokenized deposits and custody.
Neither announced a product. That is how you know it is real 👇
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Google is building the rails. Apple is building the button. The winning coin is whoever already sits in your wallet.
The real question is not if.
It is whether stablecoins go live inside the apps you already open by 2027, and that is exactly what prediction markets price better than pundits. Watch this space!
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Steal this startup💡
Right now, serious prediction market traders keep five apps open and tab between them by hand to compare odds. No one has built the tool that does it for them.
Kalshi and Polymarket keep posting JUST IN odds as breaking news, which doubles as free marketing for them. But it also means the live data is all out there in the open, waiting for someone to pull it into one screen.
The terminal that reads every platform at once is an open lane. Whoever builds it owns the layer all of them depend on.
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5 overlooked opportunities where founders will build the next $100M businesses in 2027⏳
We are heading into the final quarter, and the ground is already moving. Here is where the real building happens next 👇
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5. Agentic finance tools🤖
Loud and messy today, but the big labs are already shipping AI agents built for banks and financial work.
The real products are closer than the hype suggests.
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A tribal nation just became an owner in prediction markets instead of a customer of one.
SaltTrade Derivatives isn't licensing a product, it's a tribal-owned enterprise building on Kalshi's infrastructure and keeping the upside.
This is exactly the model we think the next wave of prediction markets builders looks like, entities owning their own front end on top of someone else's infrastructure.
Today, the Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana became the first sovereign Tribal nation in the country to launch its own prediction market.
Read the open letter below:
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Hey @X algorithm 👋
We're looking to connect with founders building in:
- SaaS
- AI-native tools
- Dev tools & infrastructure
- Marketplace & network-effect businesses
- Bootstrapped or solo-founder projects
- Anything with real users already paying
If you're building, let's connect. Drop what you're working on below 👇
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The Fed decides today, and prediction markets are leaning heavily one way.
A hike is priced high, so the number itself is unlikely to be the surprise. The more interesting question is the tone on what comes next.
That part is far from settled. Watch where prediction markets move after 2 PM ET🍿
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The CLARITY Act failed its Senate vote yesterday. 50 to 49, short of the 60 it needed, and effectively dead for 2026.
Prediction markets had it priced days earlier. While plenty of headlines still called it a coin flip, the odds of passage had already collapsed below 20%.
That is what these markets really are. A live read on sentiment that moves before the news catches up. 📉
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$125M in week one to $1B in five weeks, as a brand new entrant.
The idea that this market's already locked up by two incumbents doesn't hold up.
Plenty of room left, on both the platform side and the infrastructure underneath it.
We just crossed $1 billion in trading volume on Novig — five weeks after launching our prediction market.
Onward.
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Update: the odds just swung hard 📉
Over the weekend Republicans released a draft they called final, and markets liked it. Odds of CLARITY becoming law spiked.
Then key Democrats rejected the text over its ethics provisions and countered. And reports now say Republicans rejected that counteroffer right back, leaving talks deadlocked hours before the 2:15 vote.
The market has moved with all of it. Odds of it becoming law by 2028 have slid from the high 50s to 51%, with the nearer 2027 windows down around 33%.
It all comes down to this afternoons vote.
The most important crypto vote of the year is tomorrow. Does it survive? 👇
The CLARITY Act faces a key Senate vote at 2:15 PM ET.
Tomorrow is a procedural vote, not final passage. It only decides if the bill reaches the floor. Needs 60 votes, so Republicans need at least 7 Democrats to move it.
Inside the final 635-page text:
Ethics. Officials, lawmakers, judges and spouses barred from profiting off digital assets. State AGs can enforce, penalties from $500K.
Stablecoins. Treasury gets temporary power to cap rewards if community banks see deposit flight.
The part builders should watch: it hands the CFTC firmer authority over digital commodity markets. The same agency that oversees event contracts, the ground prediction markets are built on.
Fail tomorrow and it likely slips past the midterms.
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The distinction that matters isn't prediction markets versus perps, it's defined resolution versus none.
One gives you a clean answer and a close date.
The other gives you a running signal with no end.
Different tools for different questions, same price-discovery engine underneath.
We just launched gold and silver perpetuals in the US.
And commodity derivatives are now our fastest-growing product.
Markets started with grain and metals, expanded into rates, indices, and other financial assets, and are now expanding into information itself, pricing not just assets but outcomes about the future.
Prediction markets ask questions with defined resolution: What will GDP be this quarter? Who will win tonight?
Perps ask continuous questions, with no expiration: Where is gold going?
Prediction markets, traditional futures, and perps are built on the same idea: match buyers and sellers, let them compete in an open market, and discover a price. Traders bring different information and beliefs, and that competition produces a price the rest of us can use as a signal.
It’s part of a centuries long evolution toward markets as a general-purpose technology for pricing and managing uncertainty.
Prediction markets are one frontier of this evolution. Commodity perps are another.
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The most important crypto vote of the year is tomorrow. Does it survive? 👇
The CLARITY Act faces a key Senate vote at 2:15 PM ET.
Tomorrow is a procedural vote, not final passage. It only decides if the bill reaches the floor. Needs 60 votes, so Republicans need at least 7 Democrats to move it.
Inside the final 635-page text:
Ethics. Officials, lawmakers, judges and spouses barred from profiting off digital assets. State AGs can enforce, penalties from $500K.
Stablecoins. Treasury gets temporary power to cap rewards if community banks see deposit flight.
The part builders should watch: it hands the CFTC firmer authority over digital commodity markets. The same agency that oversees event contracts, the ground prediction markets are built on.
Fail tomorrow and it likely slips past the midterms.
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If you are building in prediction markets, these are the communities worth watching. Bookmark this🔖
r/PredictionMarkets for the category view
r/Kalshi and r/Polymarket for platform-level signal
Metaculus and Manifold for forecasters who care about being right, not loud
r/PMBuilders for the people building the next ones
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