Posting intriguing charts and data without interpretations.

World
Replying to @KobeissiLetter
Against gold the picture is even worse
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts estimate that Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle will spend a combined $4.2 trillion on capital expenditures through 2029.
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
And this comes despite semiconductors having its worst quarter versus Nasdaq 100 in 19 years
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🤯SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #5: Global government interest expense is up to $5.6 trillion, an all-time high.
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🚨SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #4: US M2 money supply hit a record $23.3 trillion in August.
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⚠️SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #3 The US semiconductor index is underperforming the Nasdaq 100 by the widest margin since 2007 so far in Q3 2026.
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🔴SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #2: Global official central bank gold holdings are now larger than foreign official Treasury holdings.
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‼️SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #1: Average US Treasury yield rose to 5.1%, the 2nd-highest level since the Global Financial Crisis.
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
At the same time, The 30-year US real yield has soared to 3.18%, its highest level since 2002, while the 10-year real yield has risen to 2.79%, its highest since 2008.
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🤯SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #5: The S&P 500 has seen 7 straight sessions with more 52-week lows than 52-week highs, the longest streak since the April 2025 “Liberation Day” selloff.
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🚨SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #4: China is shifting its crude import mix away from sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil toward the open market. At the same time, total seaborne crude imports remain weak at 7.2mb/d, down -2.7mb/d YoY, or-27%, and nearly 3mb/d below seasonal norms, meaning the change in sourcing is happening alongside much weaker overall demand.
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⚠️SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #3 Japan’s 10-year yield jumped +10 bps to 3.075%, its highest level since 1996, following the three-day holiday break. The 5-year and 20-year yields also surged around +10 bps each, reaching 2.375% and 3.915%, respectively.
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🔴SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #2: The 30-year US real yield has soared to 3.18%, its highest level since 2002, while the 10-year real yield has risen to 2.79%, its highest since 2008.
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‼️SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #1: VLCC earnings have surged nearly 20x this year, reaching the highest levels on record as the war in Iran severely squeezes vessel supply. The supply shock is spreading across smaller tankers and other vessel types, pushing freight rates and ship values sharply higher while attracting a wave of new financial investors.
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
Meanwhile, interest costs on US federal debt have reached over $1.3 trillion over the last 12 months, making it the 2nd-largest government expenditure over this period. THIS IS INSANE
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🤯SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #5: Market breadth is deteriorating sharply beneath the surface. The S&P 500 has recorded more 52-week lows than highs for 6 straight days, even as the index trades within 1% of its all-time high. Over the past month, the S&P 500 has gained +1.2%, yet 9 of 11 sectors are down, showing how narrowly the market’s gains are concentrated.
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🚨SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #4: The average US 30-year fixed mortgage rate surged +15 basis points last week, to 7.12%, the highest reading since May 2024.
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⚠️SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #3 The MSCI South Korea ETF, $EWY, posted -$1.1 billion in outflows last week, its largest weekly outflow ever recorded.
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🔴SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #2: Governments are spending heavily to 'protect' consumers from higher energy costs. France has introduced 12 energy-support measures, the most among the countries shown, while Italy and India have introduced 6 each. However, many of these measures are untargeted, meaning they provide support beyond the households and businesses most affected, increasing the strain on public finances.
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‼️SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #1: Oil traders are making record bets on lower prices, with Brent put-option volume reaching ~764,000 contracts. At the same time, the Brent 2nd-month call-put skew fell to its lowest level since June, showing that bullish demand for calls has faded. The shift comes as Saudi Arabia works to restore oil flows and signs of progress emerge toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of prolonged supply disruptions.
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🤯SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #5: Private credit defaults range from 1% to 19%, depending on how they are measured.
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🚨SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #4: AI dominates money flows across various asset classes. AI infrastructure firms reflect 40% of the S&P 500’s market cap, while 3 chip shares account for 28% of the MSCI Emerging Market index.
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⚠️SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #3 Tech stocks now make up a record 51% of the S&P 500's market cap.
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🔴SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #2: China spent a record $158.8 billion on gold imports in the first 8 months of 2026, buying over 1,100 tonnes of gold over this period.
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‼️SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #1: US Bitcoin ETFs attracted +$999 million in inflows on Monday, the largest daily inflow this year.
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🤯SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #5: The market has entered a historically weak seasonal period of the year.
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🚨SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #4: Rapidly rising 10-year Treasury yields have historically put significant pressure on the Nasdaq 100 Index.
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⚠️SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #3 The value of Japanese government bonds sold to households spiked +84% YoY to a record ¥5.14 trillion between April and September, the highest level ever recorded.
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🔴SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #2: China's gold reserves have risen +20% since the start of 2020 while its Treasury holdings have fallen -41% over the same period.
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‼️SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #1: The 10-year Treasury yield has settled above 5% for the first time since 2007. Here is the number of consecutive trading days the 10-year yield closed above 5% in various periods.
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🚨SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #4: The 100-day correlation between the 10-year Treasury yield and oil prices has surged to ~0.6, the highest since at least 1985.
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🤯SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #5: Goldman Sachs estimates that central banks bought +44 tonnes of gold in July, bringing the 3-month average to +91 tonnes per month, compared with a pre-2022 average of +17 tonnes per month.
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⚠️SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #3 China's Treasury holdings fell -$15 billion in July, to $618 billion, the lowest level since August 2008.
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🔴SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #2: The BofA investor sentiment gauge fell -1.0 percentage point, to 7.0, the lowest in 3 months after several months of rising. This is according to a BofA survey of 170 participants overseeing $470 billion in assets conducted from September 4 to September 10.
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‼️SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #1: The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by +25 basis points, to 1.25%, a 31-year high, in a split 7-2 vote, marking its 6th hike under Governor Kazuo Ueda. The move came just 3 months after the previous hike, the shortest gap between raises since 1990.
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🤯SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #5: The Bloomberg Global Treasury Index yield has surged to ~3.9%, its highest level since 2007.
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🚨SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #4: Of the 18 Fed participants who submitted projections, 12 are looking for another 25 bps hike in 2026, while 4 expect 50 bps of further tightening.
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⚠️SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #3 Markets are now pricing in 1 more Fed rate hike this year and 4 in total by mid-2027.
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🔴SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #2: Tether owns ~146 tonnes of gold worth ~$20 billion, making it one of the world’s biggest private holders of the precious metal.
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‼️SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #1: Shanghai crude futures jumped to $129 a barrel on Wednesday, breaking above the previous $122 peak reached during the first weeks of the Iran War. The surge has pushed Shanghai crude to an unusually large premium over Brent, which traded around $108 a barrel on the same day, creating a nearly $21/bbl gap rarely seen under normal market conditions.
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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
At the same time, they are nearly fully invested. Investor equity allocation hit 72% versus bonds, the highest level since the 1960s.
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Replying to @BullTheoryio
Shanghai crude is now trading at $135 a barrel, a ~$32 premium over WTI's $103... Chinese refiners are responding by aggressively securing cargoes as marginal buyers, paying higher premiums and freight costs, while reduced access to Iranian and Russian barrels forces them to compete for supply from West Africa, Canada, and South America instead.
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Replying to @unusual_whales
Whenever hike expectations have been this high, the Fed has always delivered. If delivered, it will not be a one-off since the Fed has only paused after a single hike once before, in 1997
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🤯SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #5: Shanghai crude is now trading at $135 a barrel, a ~$32 premium over WTI's $103. This comes as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has been shut down, tightening regional supply and raising concerns about further disruptions. Chinese refiners are responding by aggressively securing cargoes as marginal buyers, paying higher premiums and freight costs, while reduced access to Iranian and Russian barrels forces them to compete for supply from West Africa, Canada, and South America instead.
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🚨SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #4: Hedge funds own over $2 trillion in US Treasuries, more than twice their holdings five years earlier, accounting for a record ~7% of the Treasury market. A significant portion of these positions is linked to the basis trade, where hedge funds buy Treasury bonds and sell futures to profit from small pricing differences. Because the potential gains are small, the strategy typically relies on borrowing and leverage to amplify returns.
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⚠️SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #3: Global fund manager cash levels jumped 0.4 ppts in September, to 3.9%, posting their biggest monthly rise since March.
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🔴SHOCKING CHART OF THE DAY, #2: US heating oil crack spread has surged to $117 a barrel, its highest level in Bloomberg data since 2009. This points to a severe shortage of refined fuel, which could drive diesel prices higher and add further pressure to transportation costs and inflation.
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