US yields are doing more work than the indexes. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.24%, its highest level since 2007. The 30-year reached about 5.57%, a level last seen in 2004. Markets price roughly a 70% chance of another Fed hike in October. The 10-year yield acts as the discount rate for the whole market, so a higher cost of capital weighs on long-duration growth stocks such as AI names and the hyperscalers. Will the 10-year hold above 5.20%?

When headlines say "billions wiped out" - where does the money actually go? Short answer: nowhere. Some people sold, some people bought, the market kept moving. #SimpleFXAcademy

This week's calendar: US labor data all week, capped by NFP Friday 12:30 UTC. EU CPI lands the same morning.

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Brent climbs back above $100 after Trump rejected Iran's 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The strait has been effectively shut for ~211 days, and the market isn't pricing in a quick deal. Per WSJ, strikes could resume after the US midterms.

Bitcoin is trading around $84,750, above the May high. The breakout has held so far, though what counts is the weekly close – an intraday push above a prior peak reverses often enough to be worth waiting out. On flows: US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a sixth straight session of net inflows on 24 September (Farside Investors), with roughly $2.25 billion across the first four sessions of the week. Daily figures thinned as the week went on, though they stayed positive. #Bitget #Bitcoin #Crypto bitcoin:native

Bitget breach: $351M gone, withdrawals frozen Bitget suspended withdrawals on 24 September after a breach the exchange puts at roughly $351 million. BTC, meanwhile, is at a new high. 🧵

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bitcoin-cash:native is up over 30% since CME Group announced Bitcoin Cash futures on September 22. The launch is set for October 19, pending regulatory review. Price moved from around $267 to above $350 on the 4H chart, and UNI futures were announced in the same rollout. Bitcoin Cash is a 2017 fork of Bitcoin built around larger blocks and a payments-focused design, with the same 21M supply cap. CME already lists futures on BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA, LINK, XLM, AVAX and SUI, and BCH now joins that group. Contracts come in 2 sizes, 250 BCH standard and 25 BCH micro, both cash-settled in USD. Regulated futures give institutions a way to hedge or get BCH exposure without holding the coin. That does not automatically mean buying, since futures work for both long and short positions. Volume and open interest after October 19 will show how much demand there really is.

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The 2025/2026 period marks the second-shortest bear market in history, and the shallowest one, too. 38 weeks and a drop of just 54% - that was the best the bears could manage. BTC has already rebounded nearly 50% from the lows, but most importantly, it is flashing two signals. Price is clearly bouncing off the weekly EMA50, and the daily close is above the previous high (May, ~$83k), officially establishing a new peak and shifting the entire market structure. To top it off, both the MACD and RSI indicate strong bullish momentum, posting new highs and sitting above the 50 level that separates bear and bull markets. The only thing that could spoil the bulls' outlook is a decisive weekly candle close below the May high, though the shift in momentum is clearly evident. So, did you buy in, or did you stay on the sidelines?

BTC: Bull market starts Okay, so literally only once in BTC’s history had a bear market been shorter: the 23-week fall in 2011. If you were in the market back then and have held your BTC ever since, the Maldivian sun is probably shining right onto your screen. Turn up your screen brightness, because we are witnessing something truly extraordinary.

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BRENT is down about $12 from its mid September peak, and the war hasn't ended. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, the main bypass around the Strait of Hormuz, has been down since the 11 September drone attack, with repairs ongoing. Satellite and shipping data show shuttle tanker flows through Hormuz and via Oman rising versus August, while normal commercial transit through the strait itself stays well below pre war levels. Qatar and Pakistan are mediating between Washington and Tehran to try to restart formal talks, with no agreement reached so far. The Fed raised rates to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September, its first hike since 2023, and signaled another possible move this year. The pipeline outage and the Hormuz closure remain unresolved. Markets are watching for further infrastructure attacks, confirmed changes in flows, or shifts in the US-Iran talks.

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hyperliquid:native is moving on real news this week. Payward, Kraken's parent company, is reportedly in advanced talks to bring Hyperliquid-based perpetual futures to US clients through Bitnomial, its CFTC-regulated derivatives arm. It's a direct push for legal US market entry, still pending regulatory sign-off. The CFTC keeps easing its stance on software that connects users to derivatives markets, most recently through a no-action letter tied to a self-custody wallet, with Hyperliquid's own policy arm pushing for the same treatment. The market reads this as a smoother US path for the platform. Hyperliquid also expanded its borrowing feature, letting users post hyperliquid:native and bitcoin:native as collateral to borrow USDC/USDT. The token now carries real lending utility on top of its existing fee and buyback role. On top of that, US-listed HYPE spot ETFs (Bitwise's BHYP, 21Shares' THYP) keep pulling in single-session inflows, the protocol's AQAv2 mechanism channels USDC reserve yield into HYPE buybacks and burns worth an estimated $135-160M a year, and RWA perps (tokenized stocks and indices) now account for a large share of Hyperliquid's total volume alongside crypto pairs. Put it together: a US market pathway, new lending utility and rising institutional demand.

4/4 The market reaction was sharp at first, then faded. → EURUSD dropped to 1.145 → The dollar jumped – $DXY pushing above 100 → Both have since retraced slightly → Equities barely reacted, trading modestly higher The calm equity response suggests the hike was well anticipated. The more interesting question is what a unanimous, openly hawkish Fed means for the months ahead – particularly with one more hike penciled in and an administration pushing hard in the opposite direction.

2/4 The chart tells the full-cycle story. From near zero in early 2022, the Fed tightened aggressively through 2023 to a peak above 5.25%, held there for a year, then began easing in September 2024 with a 50bp cut. Rates ground steadily lower through 2025 and into early 2026, bottoming around 3.63% effective. That direction has now reversed. On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, its first hike since July 2023. It marks a clear break from the previous easing phase - not simply another pause between cuts. From near zero in early 2022, the Fed tightened aggressively through 2023 to a peak above 5.25%, held there for a year, then began easing in September 2024 with a 50bp cut. Rates ground steadily lower through 2025 and into early 2026, bottoming around 3.63% effective. That direction has now reversed. On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, its first hike since July 2023. It marks a clear break from the previous easing phase - not simply another pause between cuts.

FOMC: First rate hike in 3 years The Fed raised rates by 25bp on September 16, lifting the target range to 3.75-4.00% – its first increase since July 2023, and a decisive shift after a long pause. 🧵

Bulls rn

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$XAU has been swinging hard around a familiar driver: the cost of money. The US 10Y yield pushed to 5.04%, the highest since 2007, while Brent jumped to $108-109 after Saudi Arabia's Yanbu pipeline went offline. Equities slipped alongside it, S&P 500 -0.45%, Nasdaq -0.78%, and gold got pulled down to $4,261-4,283 as the combination of pricier debt and pricier oil weighed on the metal. That pressure is easing now. Saudi Arabia is rerouting cargo through Oman, US crude stocks rose by 7.1M barrels, and Brent has come back to $105-107 with WTI around $102-104. The 10Y yield followed, slipping to 4.96-4.97%. Gold has clawed back to $4,340-4,350, last trading around $4,346 on the H4. The setup ahead is a Fed decision at 20:00 CET, with markets pricing around 93% odds of a 25bp hike, the first since 2023. The dot plot and press conference will likely matter more than the rate move itself. Higher yields and a stronger dollar raise the cost of holding gold, so when both cool off before a big decision, gold tends to catch a bid. Right now that looks like a breather while the outcome is still open, rather than a shift in trend.

This is only the beginning. We’ve selected the first 25 people for the SimpleFX Ambassador Program, but that doesn’t mean recruitment is closed. If you were selected, our team contacted you via Telegram. We’ll keep an eye on people who stay active, engage with our content and show a genuine interest in working with SimpleFX. Quality contributions, useful feedback and consistent activity will all matter. Even if you weren’t selected this time, your activity can still put you on our radar for the next round of recruitment next month.

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Without your support, these awards wouldn't exist. Thank you! What for? Four award titles for SimpleFX this year. Which ones? 1. Best Digital Asset Exchange - Global Crypto Awards 2. Best Forex Trading App - ADVFN International Financial Awards 3. Best Trading Platform - Africa - Global Forex Awards 4. Best Mobile Trading Platform – Africa – Global Forex Awards The Africa titles? Just collected - straight from your votes. What they're actually for: CFDs on 1,000+ instruments, crypto and forex side by side, close to 100 ways to fund an account, zero deposit fees. Some things you can't win overnight. Twelve years of doing it by the book - that's the part we're proudest of. #GlobalForexAwards

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The curious part is the dollar. The $DXY sits just below 100 - and a near-certain hike would normally lend it more support. On the daily chart, price remains below both the EMA50 and EMA100, yet MACD and RSI are showing bullish divergence - a setup worth watching into the decision. A hike itself is largely priced in. Since Warsh has scrapped forward guidance, the usual clues about what comes next won't be there. That leaves two things to read: the vote split and how the statement describes conditions. At Jackson Hole, Warsh said he would be “hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.” Whether that assessment holds up in Wednesday’s statement and press conference is one detail worth watching. 👀

2/3 The bond market has already moved. The 10-year yield climbed from around 4.8% last week to above 5.04% today – the highest since 2007. The 30-year sits at 5.40%. On the T-Note chart, this shows up inverted: rising yields mean falling prices, and the note has been grinding lower for weeks. Friday's CPI is a big part of why. Core printed +0.3% against +0.2% expected. That single tenth was enough to push hike odds higher. Brent above $110 isn't easing the inflation picture either.

FOMC Tomorrow: Dollar’s bullish divergence The decision lands at 18:00 UTC - and markets are pricing in more than 90% odds of a 25bp hike, which would be the Fed's first rate increase since 2023. 🧵

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$NVDA is trading exactly where it's traded before, back in the same $208 to $213 zone that has shown up on this daily chart since May, with a first entry into it back then, a break lower through the summer, a return in August, and a wick into it near the end of that month, and today's candle sits fully inside it with a low of $208.70 and a close of $212.42, while just a couple of weeks ago the chart pushed up into resistance around $233 and got rejected hard, with a run of red candles selling off straight back down into this same zone. Over the weekend Amodei, Altman and Musk all called for a slower pace on frontier AI development, and the market is reading that as a signal of softer near-term GPU demand, which is what's weighing on the name today. Price is still down from the ~$236 May high and sitting back at this shelf, with market cap holding near $5.3T despite the pullback.

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The market reaction was immediate. → The dollar strengthening – finally catching a bid after weeks of pressure → EURUSD falling to 1.157 → $SPX and other US indices lower → Gold and $BTC both under pressure This is the textbook response to reduced odds of easier policy. A hotter core print makes it considerably harder for the Fed to argue that inflation is a passing energy story. The decision lands Wednesday, September 16. Markets were already leaning toward a hike; today's data gives that case more support. 👀

August inflation matched expectations on the surface, yet the underlying measure came in above forecast. Markets didn't like it.

What can 0.2 percentage points do? In 2022: knock 4% off the S&P 500 in a single session. Today's CPI drops at 12:30 UTC - here's how that works.

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Apple's "Surprise and Shine" event on September 9 was John Ternus's first as CEO, who took over from Tim Cook on September 1 after his 15 years running the company. iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,199, Pro Max at $1,299, both on the new A20 Pro chip. Preorders open September 12, retail from September 18. The bigger reveal was the iPhone Duo, Apple's first foldable, starting at $1,999. Preorders open October 16, retail from October 23. Apple Watch Series 12 starts at $399, Ultra 4 at $799, AirPods 5 at $129, alongside a heavy AI push and a rebuilt Siri coming in iOS 27. $AAPL sold off into the event, dropping from the $330 area on September 3-4 down to around $310 by September 9-10, then bounced hard. It's climbing back toward the same $329-331 zone that capped price action last week.

3/3 The S&P500 is trading around 7,660, sitting right on a confluence zone: → 0.382 Fibo retracement at ~7,640 → EMA50 at ~7,650 – price testing it from above → A rising trendline from the August lows converging in the same area Below, the next Fibo levels sit at ~7,580 (0.5), ~7,520 (0.618) – close to the longer-term EMA around 7,540 – and ~7,440 (0.786). Above, 0.236 sits at ~7,720 before the ATH near 7,840. MACD remains slightly negative but is flattening, suggesting weak momentum rather than a clear directional bias. The market appears to be waiting for a catalyst - and tomorrow's data may be exactly that. 👀

CPI Reading on Friday 🇺🇸 August inflation data lands tomorrow, Friday, September 11, at 12:30 UTC – just five days before the Fed's September decision. What's expected: → CPI MoM: +0.4% (prev: +0.1%) → CPI YoY: 3.4% (unchanged) → Core CPI MoM: +0.2% (unchanged)

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Why it matters – and what it doesn't say. Historically, this subindex has led CPI by roughly six months. But the relationship signals direction, not levels. The last time the index was here, inflation was running at 6-8% – today it's at 3.4%. That gap alone is the signal worth watching, though leading indicators can and do produce false alarms. The inflationary fuel, however, is already visible: → Brent broke $100 this morning – first time since July, now over 60% higher year-to-date, after US forces destroyed five Iranian tankers overnight → Diesel hit $5.90/gal in the US – a nominal all-time record. And diesel weighs more than crude: it powers everything that delivers goods to stores, so its price feeds into costs across the entire economy