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hearing banks stopping all compute lending credit crunch is beginning

Has AI actually made anyone’s life better?

We sat down with Rich Jaycobs, the former president of Cantor Futures Exchange & legendary creator of 7 exchanges & 6 clearing houses, and 1/5 of all approved DCMs since 2000. Here's what it really takes to build a compute market. sfcompute.com/news/commodity…

AI will cure cancer and it will kill us all are not contradictory positions, they are both rhetorical methods to make the exact same argument: the future is defined by AI. You are a satellite revolving around the AI sun, at best. These undefined prognostications of future omnipotence distract from accountability in the present. This rhetoric has two effects 1) it distracts from today’s upside down value capture versus value creation equation 2) it forces a psychological centering of AI and AI companies at the expense of humans and the rest of the world’s institutions. Any technology’s utility is a function of our ability to control it, not its raw hypothetical power without controls. Chemotherapy requires precision to kill cancer and not kill a host. Nuclear reactors are defined by their controls more than the reaction itself. That a given technology’s utility is bound by the precision of its controls was Palantir’s fundamental insight at its inception: the amount of security the US government can guarantee its citizenry is defined by how much it can guarantee rights to privacy more so than the raw capability to identify threats. If you do not enhance both privacy and security, your product is a toy. AI is not the first technology that couples control with utility. In the present, the models are voraciously consuming knowhow like a parasite eating its host until both die. Every company I speak to is sprinting to control a spend:outcomes ratio that exploded on them before they could learn how to govern it. They are observing their intellectual assets eroding like a sand castle into the ocean. They are stuck between being upside down on value leakage, yet being told they have no agency over their future. The inevitability of the arrival of a deity forces individuals to define themselves as a function of that deity. Nobody wants to be that luddite who tells you the Wright Brothers will never fly. Nobody wants to run Polaroid or Blockbuster. No young person wants to be a part of the permanent underclass. Forward leaning humans are psychologically berated into defining their skillsets and objectives as a function of AI. Their careers are lottery tickets. They define utility through how good they are at tickling a model. “Ride the exponential” is a mantra that allows you to be “good” in a moral sense, without earning it. If you dare to expose yourself as a luddite that is not getting results today, well that is a “skill issue,” or you simply aren’t using enough tokens. This propaganda pursues an inevitable centering of AI, with humans as peripherals. The only thing you have real agency over in the future? Using more tokens of course. I think if you are going to virtue signal about protecting our future, you should also own the implied vice that comes with your position. Prognostications of armageddon are inextricably linked with acceptance of the bad things that exist in the world today. 350,000 people die of sepsis in hospital settings in the US alone every year. Life expectancy in the US has flatlined over the last 20 years while healthcare spending per person has doubled. 30-40% of the food supply is wasted while 18% of households with children experience food insecurity. 19.5% of drinking water is lost in transit to consumers. A significant portion of the world’s energy supply is threatened by a fanatical regime because the strait of Hormuz is still contested. Putin’s death machine continues to slaughter Ukranians every single day as technological efficacy literally defines meter over meter of protected or conquered land. The CCP has 230 times the shipbuilding capacity of the United States and the implied ability to control the world’s commerce and security. $1.7 trillion of excess, unproductive working capital is locked up in the top 1000 companies in the US, capital that is not producing goods and services for every day Americans. Americans paid over $250 billion in credit card interest at over 20% APR last year and more than half of savers earn less than 3% interest on their savings. Real wages have stagnated, middle-wage workers real income is up only 6% since 1979 while low-wage workers are down 5%. We have a shortage of ~7 million homes in the US. 8.5 million acres burned in wildfires so far this year. As of year end 2025 2,060 gigawatts of generation and storage capacity were waiting for grid interconnects (double the capacity of the existing power fleet). I digress. We are making real progress against each of these miseries, and many more, because of the incredible progress in AI systems over the last several years. Perhaps ironically, success in all of these domains is a function of how precisely controlled the models are. For the cognitive labor humans know how to wield to achieve real world outcomes today, open source or off-frontier small models are already at parity for at least a plurality of use cases on a price/performance basis. Those customers reliably outperform the frontier when they incorporate their own proprietary data and decision traces. The most consistent pattern I see over and over again is real world use cases shrink their reliance on general purpose AI’s over time. They encode deterministic knowledge and/or post-trained models on smaller model footprints. It is empirically a wildly optimistic future with AI as an accelerant for the pluralistic, wonderfully diverse means of advancing the human condition against problems you can measure and make progress against today. We should also own that these horrible challenges persist because these systems are not yet good enough to fully solve them. They are worth improving. The bay area is abdicating responsibility for the world as it is today while claiming ownership of the world as it might be tomorrow. DC and our political leaders are polarizing into zero sum positions. These are the luxury beliefs of children. Build something people need today, at a price they are willing to pay when not pressured by the social herd, if you want the opportunity to do it again in the future.

the labs are running Jurassic park. they’re birthing a T-Rex for the first time in 70 million years. it’s an enormous cost to understand how to safely hold him and what he’s capable of, as verified third party scientists and assessors. everyone is on edge, dotting their i’s and rattling the cages to see if they’ll break. they’re putting T. rex in all kinds of difficult scenarios to see what he can do, waiting for novel behaviors to arise by the time that’s done, it’s far simpler for a new entrant to create contain and secure a Stegosaurus. They have to accept some safety costs, but are basically well understood because someone has done it before. The labs will have to publish their safety cases for why a certain set of model alignment and containment standards work for a certain level of capability. while it will impose some nonzero costs to secure Stegosaurus, it will be standardized and much cheaper than securing a T. rex for the first time it is possible T. rex breaks loose and eats us all no matter what we do. this should buy us time so we at least avoid unforced errors and blunders

100%, this is going to be one of the most important roles in the world - the people will need to be of incredible integity and technical expertise, and be drawn from a wide enough set of backgrounds that all of society feels confidence in their judgements.

Developing the footprint of tomorrows infrastructure for AI is to develop the footprint of tomorrows infrastructure for civilization

this rumor that Anthropic has solved a Millennium Prize Problem is getting very interesting. Terence Tao a few hours ago:

Is new nuclear going to happen? At scale? Fast? Finance & dev folks don't think so. Bearish comments here esp on SMRs - SMRs 'long way off, early 2030s not realistic' - Nuclear "not viable at scale w/o govt support" - Btw NYSERDA modeling found even Fed support not enough, NY State must be involved - Developer: "You have to pay nuclear $200/MWh at 2am, or it will not pay back its debt" - But note best in class financial modeling shows $200/MWh is for a brownfield AP 1000 + federal ITC + debt support, greenfield is >$250/MWh. With no government subsidies >$400/MWh for greenfield 😳 - NYSERDA "initial nuclear projects are likely not commercially viable without any NY State support, even when incorporating existing federal supports such as the Investment Tax Credit and DOE-backed debt" - "Economics continue to be the problem" - Designs so early stage they have "not thought through the permitting risks" Folks allocating capital simply do not think this is a financeable product, yet. How to create one is the main challenge, not a novel 'better' reactor design

A common political line is that America doesn't have a revenue problem; it has a spending problem. Maybe. But is there any viable pathway to materially cutting spending? I'll show there isn't. That leaves us with either a revenue problem or a debt/deficit problem. You choose. 1/n

- Secondary propellant & purge lines - Wiring for power & sensing - Sensors - Avionics boxes - Main chamber spark igniters Also, many bolted flanges were replaced with welded joints. That greatly reduces mass and leak paths, but makes it harder to replace some parts. I won’t go into the exact details as to how they were replaced, except to say that while deleting parts sounds easy in theory, it is actually very difficult to figure out how to do so in practice and requires many iterations.

Dolly Parton understood that becoming yourself is an act of creation.

Hedge funds will eventually provide inference to model routers for free, or even pay to do so, in order to get a first look at prompt contents. Payment-for-order-flow in the age of compute.