The smartest of the dumb. smartdumbman.substack.com/
Not Sure
- Tweets 4,195
- Following 71
- Followers 457
- Likes 7,202
Pinned Tweet
A quick guide on how to win at life. Read the long form on my Substack.
smartdumbman.substack.com/p/…
1/5
2
8
1,112
Smart Dumb Man retweeted
Cash dividends for stocks and ETFs are now live on Backpack.
Eligible dividends are credited directly to your account 🎒
118
103
573
139,981
Ethereum design flaw...giving unlimited approval when you sign a tx that can then be used 3 years later to exploit you.
32
Alpenglow is officially running on testnet ⛰️
The handoff completed at slot 444625255: Alpenglow genesis block formed and TowerBFT is retired.
Testnet now finalizes with Votor and votes have entirely moved off-chain.
Devnet is next. Mainnet-beta after our observation period.
29
56
287
91,425
Smart Dumb Man retweeted
Update #2: Not overly bearish, but expecting a pullback anytime from now to the next few weeks.
Some cycle data (from the bottoms):
2011 - 7 weeks up followed by 23 weeks sideways
2015 - 11 weeks up followed by 30 weeks sideways
2018 - 3 weeks up followed by 12 weeks sideways
2022 - 21 weeks up followed by 27 weeks sideways
2026 - 13 weeks up...
The consolidation after the first leg up is usually 1.3 to 3 times the length of the first leg up in time.
This would actually make for a Q4 shakeout that would most likely get everyone bearish as the whole timeline is expecting a bullish year end.
The only question I have on my mind is whether this will be a rotation play (majors --> RH / alts) or an overall crypto market pullback due to some macro event (oil / inflation / etc).
$BTC, $ETH, $SOL are all the same pattern right now while alts are at various other stages.
So, I lean towards rotation play.
Anyways...TLDR...the majority of this first leg up on majors is most likely done with, so be ready to play defense.
1
25
Update #1: Plan still in place for now for $BTC until I see something different.
79k --> 88k in next two weeks or so
88k sweep then bleed --> 70k in Oct
bears out in full force + assuming controlled pullback = load up your bags bigly
1
49
Update #2: Not overly bearish, but expecting a pullback anytime from now to the next few weeks.
Some cycle data (from the bottoms):
2011 - 7 weeks up followed by 23 weeks sideways
2015 - 11 weeks up followed by 30 weeks sideways
2018 - 3 weeks up followed by 12 weeks sideways
2022 - 21 weeks up followed by 27 weeks sideways
2026 - 13 weeks up...
The consolidation after the first leg up is usually 1.3 to 3 times the length of the first leg up in time.
This would actually make for a Q4 shakeout that would most likely get everyone bearish as the whole timeline is expecting a bullish year end.
The only question I have on my mind is whether this will be a rotation play (majors --> RH / alts) or an overall crypto market pullback due to some macro event (oil / inflation / etc).
$BTC, $ETH, $SOL are all the same pattern right now while alts are at various other stages.
So, I lean towards rotation play.
Anyways...TLDR...the majority of this first leg up on majors is most likely done with, so be ready to play defense.
1
25
Welcome TradFi to the psychological mindf*ck of 24/7 trading.
Feeling the need to never sleep & the fomo around missing news events in the night.
Imagine hedge funds having to run 2 x 12 hour shifts like a manufacturing plant.
BREAKING: BLOCKCHAIN(.)COM AND NYSE PARTNER TO EXPLORE GLOBAL, 24/7/365 TRADING OF TOKENIZED SECURITIES
SOURCE: prnewswire.com/news-releases…
1
65
Smart Dumb Man retweeted
Introducing: Autocompound on JTX
Finally, @LaunchOnSF rewards can now work for you automatically. JTX Autocompound automatically takes the quote asset you earn from Stonk rewards and buys more of the original asset.
Earn rewards for holding, rebuy the Stonk, repeat.
113
156
776
136,814
Every cycle, DeFi reinvents itself.
20/21 taught us how to earn yield. DeFi summer showed millions of people that their money could work for them onchain, and yield farming kicked off everything that came after.
24/25 taught us how to stack it. Liquid staking, restaking, LRTs, Pendle, yield-bearing stablecoins, points on top of points. We found every possible way to squeeze more yield out of the same dollar.
But here's the thing: all that yield mostly just sat there. It got compounded, looped, restaked, and farmed again. We got incredibly good at generating yield and never really figured out what to do with it.
I feel like this cycle the big narrative/meta will be about putting that yield to use.
And @NetNetCap is building exactly this.
Pendle showed that principal and yield can live separate lives. NetNet takes that same idea and makes it fun.
They started with the no-loss lottery. Everyone deposits into a shared pool, that pool earns yield, and the yield becomes the prize. One person wins big, and everyone else walks away with their full deposit. Your money isn't the bet. Your yield is. The worst case is you break even.
Now they took that same idea and applied it to sportsbetting.
You pick your team, place a bet and make the game more fun to watch, but if they lose you still have your deposit. The only thing you're actually risking is the yield.
Think about what that means. Traditional betting is designed so the house wins and most players lose over time. Lotteries are even worse. NetNet completely flips that model. The excitement stays, the downside disappears, and your capital keeps working the whole time.
It's also the kind of product that could blow up outside the crypto-bubble and bring people in who would never touch a lending protocol (or crypto).
We learned how to earn yield. We learned how to stack it. Now we get to use it.
Next cycle, we'll all point back to @NetNetCap as the moment DeFi found its next use case.
Al Dunlap is making history again, creating a whole new meta just like he did when he built NBA Top Shot.
(🥅,🥅)
1
63
Normally agree with Z, but this is horrible advice for the average person.
Most "traders" up right now are up because they got in early on things like PONS or STONK. Not because they had a robust trading process.
So I would break this down into two camps.
1) If you were trading and profitable prior to July of this year, then sure, keep going.
2) If you were trading and not profitable, but now are, I got a phrase for you..."everyone's a genius in a bull market." Cash some out.
Additionally, Z lives in the most expensive city in the world, and so his 10M number is what he thinks is needed to retire...and yes, that may be true for New York, but not everywhere else.
what kind of charmin soft ass advice is this
$500k at 20 years old with no real responsibilities? keep compounding your trading and spin that into 10M+, why tf would you tuck this away in a savings account instead of waiting for god tier spots and slamming them w/ managed risk
60
Sunday Solana Charts:
$CARDS - swept support on high volume
$JTO - still under the radar...hasn't broken out of down channel yet, but showing strength
$JUP - poking it's head above the top of the base channel
$RAY - retested top of channel support
$BP - no chart cuzz already broken out...bullish
1
3
808
I've never given much thought to the idea that the CIA controls Hollywood, but noticing that Spaceman & Project Hail Mary are about friendly non-humanoid aliens instead of the normal Aliens & Predators type and them coming out at a time with all these gov't disclosures makes me rethink that premise.
51
My reasoning for buying Namesky NFT's:
First Order:
Near is focused on Privacy + AI infrastructure
+ Intents match the format for Agentic instructions
+ Sharding enables scaling
= Near has a high probability of capturing AI Agent traffic
Second Order:
Assuming adoption by Agents happens, there is a decent probability they will act like humans, and want identifiers and/or some vanity plate. (We have seen some of this already with AI Forums)
Near is account based, and NameSky allows for account names/identifiers to be converted into NFT's and resold (with their account balances). It is similar to ETH/SOL domains, but more robust.
Digging in to my assumption that Agents will want identifiers and vanity plates...they have no need for pfp NFT's tho. And so they would focus on account names which can be bought/sold.
So, with these assumptions, I asked a few different LLM's what they would most prefer as identifiers, and I bought those account names.
Risks:
#1 - Near could not gain mass adoption.
#2 - NameSky could shut down and the tech is not recoverable for some reason.
#3 - AI Agents won't actually care about identifiers, or there is another method they use.
Therefore, limit to spending $500, and let sit for a few years on the decently high probability that my thesis plays out, but accept it might go to zero.
I lied.
$NEAR has a >80% chance imo to do a 20x in the coming years.
The problem is it will be mostly invisible activity, with App Integrations + AI Agents in background.
With that in mind, I picked up a bunch of account names in preparation for the Agents coming.
1
71
The ticker is solana:BPxxfRCXkUVhig4HS1Lh7kZqV6SPJhzfEk4x6fVBjPCy.
There is a crypto exchange that has 1:1 backed tokenized stocks with all applicable rights that you can transfer in and out to TradFi brokerages and you can also borrow against them and then they publish their reserves daily and they are one of the few with an EU license and in the queue for Japan and they have former SEC members on their board and then they have a token and that token is only at 140M MC / 560M FDV and staking that token for a year gives you equity ownership.
69
