Why Prediction Market Positions Look Edged — But Aren't Tradeable

Between theoretical edge and actual returns, there are four walls. You open a prediction market and see an event with an implied probability of just 31%. You've done your research and think the real

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SmartX · May 10, 2026 · 3:14 PM UTC

SmartX

@SmartXTerminal

May 10

Article

Read Markets with News, Data, Prices

In prediction markets, the riskiest way to form a view is to rely on a single signal. If you only read the news, you can get led around by headlines. If you only look at data, you may miss what the

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