Building arbs by hand. Chasing data. Screen hopping like a pony at a county fair. You're smart. But your tools aren't. Meet Leonidas AI, your desk's decision-making engine: spartacommodities.com/leonid… #LeonidasAI #oott #oiltrading #commoditytrading #AI

A US diesel export ban isn't a clean cutoff. It's a race to beat the deadline first. Tonnage lists tighten, TC14 spot rates rally, US diesel prices climb, all in the run-up. Once the ban lands, tonnage builds back in and the rally unwinds. @SpartaFreight lays out the sequence: spartacommodities.com/market… #oott #freight #diesel

Last time all US diesel arbs shut, TC14 dropped to Worldscale 150. A Gulf Coast export ban would do it again, and this time traders expect that level to break. October freight paper already looks pricey against that tail risk. Full breakdown from @SpartaFreight: spartacommodities.com/market… #oott #freight #diesel

Pipeline flows below 25% of capacity. That's the line that keeps high sulphur fuel oil supported. Below it, Middle East power plants run short of crude and burn fuel oil instead — even in Q4, utility demand has a floor. The Rotterdam-Sing 0.5% arb nearly opened last week. Freight caught up and shut it again. @JuneGoh_Sparta breaks down why: spartacommodities.com/market… #oott #fueloil #freight

HOGO is trading negative. RB cracks rallied on rumour alone. A US export ban is still just talk, but diesel is already moving. Freight markets are split: an instant hit to clean tonnage, a dirty market benefit that takes weeks to show. @JuneGoh_Sparta, James Noel-Beswick, @SpartaFreight and Nikolas Plonski break down what happens across crude, products and freight if the ban actually lands. Read the full breakdown in this week's Market Outlook here: linkedin.com/pulse/crude-spa… #oott #dieselmarkets #oilmarkets

Seven month time charters. That's how far out trading houses are booking MRs. It runs them through to March, near the one year mark of the war. That's the market pricing in freight tightness through Q4 and into Q1. @SpartaFreight has the full read: spartacommodities.com/market… #oott #freight #tankers

USGC refiners could face a 17% CDU runcut. Tanks hit tank top in 41 days. A 90-day US diesel export ban forces the math. @JuneGoh_Sparta runs the numbers. Read the full cross barrel analysis here: spartacommodities.com/market… #oilmarkets #oott #crudeoil #commoditytrading

Clyde Russell from @Reuters on Sparta's Leonidas AI: fuel trading used to reward whoever had the most information. Now it rewards whoever turns data into a trade fastest. Five ranked trade calls, generated in seconds, on a live diesel export ban scenario. Read the full column: reuters.com/commentary/reute… #oott #oilmarkets #commoditytrading

A US diesel export ban would blow a hole in Europe's supply overnight. Trump says he's called for a ban, and Treasury Secretary Bessent is now examining whether a full or partial version is feasible. With midterms on 3 November, a decision could come fast, and the market is already repricing. ▸ The October HOGO swap has turned negative, signalling diesel could get trapped onshore. ▸ The US supplied over a third of Europe's diesel imports in August, running near 30% so far in 2026. ▸ Oct/Nov ICE gasoil spreads and the October crack are already moving on ban headlines alone. Get the full diesel export ban breakdown, from James Noel-Beswick: spartacommodities.com/market… #oilmarkets #oiltrading #commoditytrading #oott

I asked Leonidas AI - Basis the headlines about the USA diesel export ban: what would the impact be on HOGO and on TC14?

Leonidas AI now has access to global $TCEs!

HOGO is testing parity levels on US diesel export ban talk. NWE refining margins are sharply up. Asia's are down. ▸ Libya's Zawiya closure pulls crude off the Med market. ▸ VLCC freight still bullish for a third month running. Read the full breakdown here: spartacommodities.com/market… #oott #oilmarkets #crudeoil

Oil is dropping but diesel refuses to follow. Tight refining capacity and lost Middle East barrels are propping up diesel prices. A US export ban would ease inland costs but hit Gulf Coast margins, leaving the coasts exposed. Aaron Kildoww, Sparta, on @BBCNews today. #oott #oilmarkets

HOGO is down hard on US diesel export ban talk. That's just one signal in a EMEA barrel, also being reshaped by the Saudi East-West pipeline attack. ▸ NWE refining margins are sharply up. Asian values are slipping, and the divergence is widening. ▸ Libya's Zawiya port has lost around 130kbd of crude exports after a pipeline closure. ▸ VLCC freight stays bullish for a third month running on TD3c and TD22. ▸ We're bearish WTI/Brent. We're bullish EBOB cracks, as European refiners squeeze every diesel barrel out of their kit. Read the full breakdown here, from Jay Maroo: spartacommodities.com/market… #oott #oilmarkets #crudeoil #commoditytrading

Trump's floated diesel export ban is already pushing HOGO wider. WTI/Brent could widen further. RB/HO stays supported. Europe's ICE gasoil complex takes the strain as flows get rerouted. @JuneGoh_Sparta maps the cross barrel impact. Read the full cross barrel analysis here: spartacommodities.com/market… #oilmarkets #oott #commoditytrading

Since I am on a roll with Leonidas AI on the US diesel export ban, I asked it (him?) to check whether a mogas and crude export ban is likely. Here's the response. "The bottom line: diesel quota is the base case, mogas ban is a plausible tail (~20–30% conditional on diesel ban passing), crude ban is a low-probability extreme scenario (<10%). The market is pricing the diesel story; mogas and crude are not yet in the price." #oott

NWE jet differentials have slumped from $148/mt to $110/mt. Wide-open import arbs keep jet well supplied, while the risk of a US diesel export ban could push regrades further negative. Abhishek Kumar stays short November NWE jet, eyeing further downside in Singapore's Nov/Dec regrade: spartacommodities.com/market… #oilmarkets #oott #commoditytrading #crudeoil

The Oct/Nov RBOB spread just ran 10 points in three weeks. Eastern Canada flows dried up. PADD 1 turnarounds hit at the same time. Import arbs stayed shut all summer. The tight inventory picture had nowhere left to hide. ▸ Oct/Nov RBOB spread: 18.84 on 31 August, up to 28.85 by 21 September. ▸ Negative import arb margins kept US barrels away all summer. ▸ Irving's Saint John refinery turnaround cuts Eastern Canada supply from mid-September. ▸ USGC export windows are open, but not enough to cap the move. Nikolas Plonski flagged the setup in Sparta's Deep Dive on 31 August, before the spread moved. Traders who caught this early got ahead of the screen. The ones who didn't are chasing it now. Inventories are still tight. Imports are still shut. The question now is how much further this spread has to run. Read the full call here: spartacommodities.com/sparta… #oott #oilmarkets #commoditytrading #gasoline #oiltrading

Saudi's pipeline restart could add zero barrels to the market. Or a million a day. The difference comes down to one number: restored capacity. ▸ Below 25% capacity restored, extra exports are zero. Saudi's own west coast refineries absorb the flow. ▸ At 40% capacity, an extra 1mn barrels a day hits the market. ▸ European refiners already lost their October Yanbu allocations. Gulf loadings at Juaymah are up fivefold since August. @JuneGoh_Sparta, Senior Oil Analyst at Sparta, in the Financial Times. Read the full article here: ft.com/content/5b4f8738-3b93… #oott #crudeoil #saudiarabia #oilmarkets