Political analysis at your fingertips. By @lxeagle17, @hwlavellemaps, @Thorongil16, @politicsmaps, @maxtmcc | 🎤 ✉️ info@splitticket.org
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Our 2026 midterms model is out and will be hosted at @TheArgumentMag.
Projections as of 6/19:
House: 🟦 85% (229D-206R)
Senate: 🟥 57% (50R-50D)
theargumentmag.com/p/split-t…
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From our generic ballot estimations, after adjusting for uncontested races. split-ticket.org/house-gener…
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As we've previously written, candidate quality and national environment can have substantial impacts on any given candidate's performance.
This year, with two states bidding farewell to incumbents, it's time to consider how incumbent party fatigue can help the "out" party.
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Deconstructing our Wins Above Replacement model and explaining how it works, for all curious. (And why progressives don’t do as well in it)
split-ticket.org/2025/08/15/…
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With the House up for grabs in 2026, candidate quality could be decisive. Both parties face challenges, but strong recruits may tip the balance in key races:
split-ticket.org/2025/08/06/…
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For our last piece with @PostOpinions, we take a look at how the Democratic Party’s base has changed since 2016 — and in area after area, the party’s voters have become more liberal across the board, even though its leadership has not always agreed. wapo.st/4mu6AMR
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The Texas GOP is set to use an old trick: redrawing Democratic-held congressional districts mid-decade. With Trump urging action, legislators could redraw 2–5 seats—echoing the 2003 playbook and potentially changing the 2026 House calculus. Read more here: split-ticket.org/2025/07/15/…
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Six House Democrats in New England significantly outperformed Kamala Harris with low-propensity voters. Their edge? Moderate, bipartisan profiles—centrist voting records that resonated in crossover districts in an age of brutal polarization. split-ticket.org/2025/07/09/…
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How did turnout look in the 2024 election? We break it down from a geographic and demographic perspective. split-ticket.org/2025/06/27/…
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Split Ticket will be hosting a space to discuss the results of today’s primary elections in New Jersey as they come in.
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The real reason Democrats can't compete for 60 Senate seats isn't just the "structural bias of the Senate". It's because ticket splitting collapsed over the last decade. Using our WAR models, we can show how the impact of candidate quality has plummeted.
split-ticket.org/2025/06/07/…
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Today, Split Ticket is releasing a brand new set of Wins Above Replacement models, this time for the 2016 cycle. Our hope is that political observers can benefit from this new dataset to better understand candidate quality.
We'll have a more detailed analysis up soon.
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Finally, a full, downloadable candidate quality database can be found here. This contains five cycles of data, from 2016-2024. To download it, click "Get The Data" on desktop. split-ticket.org/full-wins-a…
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