Building GM tools for football fans | Weekly angles, data visuals, NFL mock drafts and analysis | Never wrong, just early 👇

Just launched an Armchair GM’s dream tool Full offseason planning - Player contract restructuring - Free agents and estimated $$ - the best draft sim w player/pick trades Think you can rebuild your favorite team into a champion? Here’s your chance ⬇️ StickToTheModel.com/teams/be…
596
814
9,326
6,219,550
Offensive vs. Defensive efficiency Through week 3 (so far)
What is EPA in football?
1
4
773
Stick to the Model retweeted
QB has no middle class - What $50 million a year is buying so far: 1. Baker Mayfield: 2nd-worst value / drop 2. Justin Herbert ($52.5M): 6th-worst 3. Drew Lock ($2.5M): 3rd-best
64
145
3,879
1,062,720
Ravens leading a 1 score game in the 4th
Ravens fans aren't imagining it - Since 2018, Baltimore has a top-5 defense over the whole game and the worst defense in football in the 4th quarter of a one-score game. The Ravens are in their own corner Those who thought it was Harbaugh - sorry
1
14
3,950
It gets worse. The Bills also had 10 penalties. Since 1999, teams that lose the turnover battle by 4+ & commit 10+ penalties: 1-69-1 Wonder if the other fanbase remembers?
Since 2013, teams with 5+ turnovers & a -4 TO margin are 3-81-1 straight up (via @pfref)... The 3 wins: • Bills over Chargers (today) • Jaguars over Chargers (2022-23) • Broncos over Chargers (2015-16)
1
8
74
9,882
Greg Rousseau through 3 games: 6 sacks, 12 QB hits, 8 tackles for loss. Since 2016, only TJ Watt has a season with 6 sacks and 12 hits (T.J. Watt, 2023). And oh by the way, 3 forced fumbles DPOY
1
10
87
6,307
The Bills just won, and covered, despite 5 turnovers Since '99, only 3 teams have done that as 7-point favorites. Here’s how they did it - Joe Brady stayed cool, EXCELLENT play calling - defense getting an INT just when needed - steady pressure from the DLine - crowd noise causing penalty —> field goal
1
25
2,080
Favorites who turn it over on their first drive, 2006-2026 (542 games): Cover 38% Josh Allen after an opening-drive giveaway: Cover 56% Never a doubt.
5
2,020
DK Metcalf: 19 targets, 67 yards. Quentin Johnston: 11 targets, 24 yards. Both are being thrown deep. Nothing comes back. Metcalf's 3.5 yards per target is the 3rd-lowest for a deep WR through two games since 2006.
1
12
3,265
I’m a certified Mestemaker
7
19
321
38,684
Two of the best defensive lines on paper The Giants hit or sack the QB on 7.4% of dropbacks. The Eagles, 7.9%. Only Miami is lower. Minnesota is at 29%
2
1,190
Jeremiah Smith is the best WR prospect since?
27
14
451
149,122
Matt LaFleur's Packers, 8 games at a time. For six years the line barely dipped below zero. Peak: +101 in 2020. The last 8: 1-7, outscored by 83. The worst stretch of his tenure. The previous low was -54 in 2022. Lambeau booed Thursday and the model agrees.
4
16
157
36,034
Last 3 seconds is TreVeyon in pass pro
Packers D/ST Fantasy Managers at work this morning.
3
6,149
Stick to the Model retweeted
🚨 NFL MOCK DRAFT - CFB WEEK 4 🏈
394
20
815
1,393,705
Stick to the Model retweeted
Collin Simmons might be the best pass rusher from college in the last 5 years
24
36
1,073
154,541
Ideal NFL Sunday Up at 7, no alarm Coffee and the injury report Get the family time in Inactives drop (your guy's active) Weeeee reaadddddy song drops Beer at 12:15 RedZone at 12:58 Your game on the big screen side TV on 10 second delay for replays flip to red zone during commercials lunch at halftime of the 1:00 slate lock in afternoon bets at 4:00 eat wings get horizontal on the couch
1
3
73
8,333
🚨 NFL MOCK DRAFT - CFB WEEK 4 🏈
394
20
815
1,393,705
Fans chanting "FIRE BEAMER" This team constantly underachieves it's talent Some clear linearity to spending & winning Cluster of overachievers Short tail of losers
4
55
15,721