This is a FPL strategy account. I do not respond to rate my team requests
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The projections for BOU DEFs (Hill, Silva) are obscene.
I don’t hate selling Calafiori for one this week, irrespective of his injury status.
Defcons, baseline bonus, set piece threat, clean sheet odds and xmins make them monster assets. Especially over this fixture run
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There are managers who chose Schade for the xmins who are certain Jackson is a bad pick 🥴
He has:
- Underperformed xG historically
- European football congestion
- Backups in the squad
But also:
- 2x strong PL seasons
- Good creative numbers
- Recent form
- Team strength
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Seems a grass vs analytics split between the Jackson and Barry routes (assuming DCL is locked).
I think analytics managers for forgetting that models change, they’re not one static version of the truth.
Better to apply ‘what if’ scenario analysis and see if your beliefs hold
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Sting FPL retweeted
Last year the same.
This is when teams get messy Andy.
They’ve made a few transfers early to chase the form, team gets a bit messy so WC1. Chase form again and around GW10 have a team they don’t like.
Waiting for the justifications of -8’s to start again soon.
“Sometimes hits can pay off” 🥱
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Defcon has made most attacking DEFs and medium priced MIDs redundant.
De Cuyper - playing LW
Calafiori - open play freak
Groß & Tavernier - set pieces + xGI
Schade - high goal threat
Aside from these, the 5m defcon DEFs (Muharemovic, JPVH, Silva, Vuskovic) are unbeatable
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Raya is streets ahead, and if you have the transfer value, team structure and FTs he’s the obvious one to get.
But you could get close with rotating combos to WC2, using: Kinsky (4.4m) Petrovic (4.5m) or Trafford (5m)
NFO are good but their best fixtures come after GW30
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I think with the long IB coming up after GW10 we should be looking to roll our FTs
This is important for my team with only 1FT. Hoping to get to GW11 with 3FTs
The only news that will change that is if Calafiori is confirmed out of GW9 and 10; if so, I’d sell for Silva
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BPS changes don’t go far enough. Big chances missed shouldn’t be negative BPS - instead big chance received should be positive BPS, to reward the forward’s good movement in getting space for a big chance. Right now strikers find it hard to get bonus unless they brace
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A further change FPL need to make to BPS is to stop making big chances missed a -BPS action. This misunderstands actual football.
Big chance received should be a +BPS action to reflect the good movement it takes to make space for a big chance. This would better reward forwards
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I’ve been banging on about this since the summer.
FPL Towers, you NEED to make this change. Stop making a big chance missed as -BPS. It’s GOOD play to receive a big chance
OR
Make big chance received +3BPS, and missed -1BPS
Had a quick look at this. We've had 27 "big chances missed" under 0.10 xG this season (11% of all BCMs)
Mostly headers (16/27), often from set pieces
Tends to hit DEF hardest, a -3 BPS penalty costs them bonus points more often than attacking players (eg Muharemović today)
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