Tech junkie. Stock junkie. Film junkie. Strategizing out loud. Not investment or trading advice.

Colorado
What if Saylor and Le have decided to let $SATA run until $ASST ramps up to the second largest bitcoin treasury company before they bother to compete, solidifying the reputation of digital credit assets, at no real cost to them? $ASST needs to acquire 16,052 more bitcoin to achieve this milestone. $MSTR would still hold at least 800,000 more bitcoin than the nearest competitor while allowing the reputation for the consistency of these assets to gain traction. There would be zero distinction from their current leadership position over the currently #2 seated Twenty One Capital, except for their friendly relations with $ASST. Wouldn't you rather have your collaborative allies in that spot? At the current rate of accrual, this could be done by year-end. This would explain why $MSTR is exerting patience in terms of cranking the $STRC yield to match $SATA. It's actually sensible, if you're about building an industry, not just a business. Two is better than one. Thinking out loud.
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Huge move. The greater the price stability, the easier it will be to meet institutional interest and demand. The Strategy and Strive teams are setting up for the big fish.
Strategy is proposing daily dividends on $STRF, $STRC, $STRK, and $STRD, accruing every calendar day, including weekends and holidays, and paid the next business day, with economics unchanged. The proposed changes aim to support price stability, liquidity, and demand.
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Does bitcoin:native bust through $82K overhead or does it drop back to its $77K magnet? That is the question. Stay tuned.
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It is always exciting when the ocean relinquishes its secrets.
Roman shipwreck discovered off the coast of Sicily, Italy laden with ancient jars believed to be more than 2,000 years old cbsn.ws/45h5760
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Super-patriot Palantir thinks Chinese models are better than the US models because their alpha is protected. Are they in for a big surprise....
Our thoughts on the importance of AI sovereignty. 1. Your AI sovereignty dictates your institution’s future. Sovereignty is the precondition for choice. Relinquishing sovereignty transfers the future choices of your institution to others, who are likely to exploit it for their gain and your loss. 2. Data retention is your treasure. Transfer it at your own peril. Your ability to win is dictated by your ability to recognize and use your unique edges, and you keep winning by compounding the underlying data to generate new insights. Transferring that data hands over access to your pre-existing winning plays and yields the means of production for new ones. 3. Tokenmaxxing hijacks your value orientation and decreases your institutional fortitude and intelligence. The pursuit of high token usage incentivizes disposable scripts over robust software — with the addictive feeling of false progress. There is a reason why those selling tokens refuse to charge based on value. 4. Controlling your weights is controlling your fate. Weights are the distilled form of hard-won, accumulated institutional knowledge. If you let others control your weights, you are allowing them to migrate the alpha of your business to theirs. 5. There is no contradiction between sovereignty and alpha. The architecture that maximally preserves sovereignty is one that enables institutions to own their tribal knowledge, and to compound it as alpha. 6. Politicizing the technical issues involving sovereignty is what your adversary wants. Techno-politicization is the wellspring of false sovereignty. Techno-politicization drives decisions that seem to reduce dependency, but ultimately limit agency — especially on the battlefield in the West. 7. Real expertise is existential. Allowing politics or favoritism to determine your technical decisions rewards whoever is best at politics, not whoever is right. Listen to those closest to the problems, not those speaking most compellingly about them. 8. Learn from institutions that are winning or that have consistently delivered. Institutions facing existential threats do not have the luxury of making technical decisions based on political preferences. 9. Only listen to institutions, countries, and people who have a proven record of being right. A track record of correctness is the best and only signal for future correctness. Judging something as right or wrong based on who you like is exceedingly misguided.
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Nailed it.
After reflection, this new narrative by Palantir is probably much more consequential than people may assume. Palantir is basically being the canary in the coal mine announcing the death of two major assumptions propping up the US economy right now: 1) that AI labs will be able to extract significant economic rent - as opposed to AI models being mere commodities 2) that other countries can accept structural dependency on US technology and services without pushing back on sovereignty concerns Why are Palantir specifically starting to be vocal about this? First off, major middle-powers, even US “allies”, are one by one showing them the door. In June, France announced that the DGSI - its domestic intelligence agency, which had relied on Palantir since the 2015 Paris attacks - would replace it with French firm ChapsVision, with Prime Minister Lecornu explaining (theguardian.com/world/2026/j…) that France “cannot accept new strategic dependencies in the digital sphere” and shouldn't depend on the goodwill of companies “capable of turning off the tap.” Germany moved even earlier: its domestic intelligence service, the BfV, also selected ChapsVision over Palantir (politico.eu/article/germany-…), and the German military has said it will no longer use Palantir at all. Then, just this week, Spain instructed state-controlled companies - including strategic firms like Telefónica, Indra and Navantia - to avoid signing any new contracts with Palantir (aa.com.tr/en/europe/spain-te…). Even in the UK, Washington's most loyal vassal, the NHS's £330 million data contract with Palantir is under review following parliamentary pressure (reuters.com/business/healthc…), and London Mayor Sadiq Khan blocked a proposed £50 million Palantir contract with the Metropolitan Police. Palantir making a lot of noise around them caring about sovereignty makes a lot of sense: it's damage control since they keep being told they're a sovereignty risk. I doubt it will work - because it's true: they are a sovereignty risk - but the fact that they feel the need to be vocal around this tells you where the wind is blowing: they're not shaping the narrative, they're reacting to one they're losing. What they're saying against closed-source AI (basically a broadside attack on OpenAI and Anthropic), is again highly self-serving. Palantir's sudden love of open-weight AI models conveniently coincides with them launching 2 days before a partnership with Nvidia to sell exactly that: open models models (NVIDIA's Nemotron) in sovereign environments. So it's essentially a product launch. It doesn't make what they're saying wrong: it is factual that the value proposition of closed-source AI labs looks increasingly unsustainable. I mean: you're paying 10X the price of Chinese open-source AI models for something that's not really better (or just marginally) and on top of that you have zero control over your data, or the models themselves. When Palantir says that "the architecture that maximally preserves sovereignty is one that enables institutions to own their tribal knowledge, and to compound it as alpha," they're right. I'd add that this also means you shouldn't trust Palantir either with that "tribal knowledge"... they obviously left this part out 😉 When you take a step back, these two things have major implications on many other US companies. SpaceX - which just went public at the largest IPO valuation in history - is one clear example as I describe in my latest article on the new space race with China (arnaudbertrand.substack.com/…). If countries like France concluded with Palantir that they couldn't depend on a company “capable of turning off the tap” when it’s merely analyzing their data, what should they conclude about a company that aims to literally control their entire connectivity - at one man's whim, from space? What percentage of SpaceX's crazy market cap is based on the assumption that foreign governments will not do to Starlink what they're currently doing to Palantir? And SpaceX - or Palantir - aren't alone: a significant proportion of the top US tech giants, who rose in a world where no one questioned American technological hegemony, now face an environment that's much less conducive to the kind of lock-in their business models - and valuations - depend on. When you pair this with the fact that it increasingly looks like the US made a wrong bet with closed-source AI - an extremely expensive wrong bet - the picture that emerges is of a country that bet its economic future on two things - proprietary AI and captive allies - and is losing both at the same time. And to compound the problem, it doesn't help that the official narrative of the US government - via the voice of Jacob Helberg, the Under-Secretary of State (x.com/UnderSecE/status/20694…) - is to be vocally opposed to "AI Sovereignty": essentially telling everyone "you know what, your worst fears are real, our tech companies are really out to undermine your sovereignty." Read Helberg's post (the one I linked) and put yourself in the shoes of - say - a European or Asian leader and ask yourself how you'd react to being told that building your own AI capabilities is "marching in perfect formation into the past," that your pursuit of sovereignty is really just "synchronized mediocrity," and that your only path to the future runs through American technology. If it was me in a position of power, I'd read this as a massive wakeup call: when another country's official position is that your sovereignty is a problem, history says you're about to need it. So yes, it looks like - unexpectedly - Palantir, of all companies, is being quite the canary in the big tech mine. Yes they obviously do this for self-serving and cynical purpose, and yes they're of course also very much part of the problem and not the solution. But it doesn't make them wrong: sometimes it takes a vulture to tell you something is dying.
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Another one good for laugh....
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Cracks me up....
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The plan begins with IPO summer where the rule-bending to admit these IPOs, SpaceX, Anthropic, etc into index funds without requiring a single financial disclosure means yes, any index-holding American pays for new data center build-out without even realizing it. The siphoning of the middle class continues a-pace.
One of the biggest crooks on earth, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, is calling for trillions in investment in data centers and AI power grids. He says the money should come from “Americans' savings, pensions, and insurance funds”, all to compete with China, even though the US already has 12 times as many data centers as China. The billionaires now want to steal from Americans’ to bring about their AI mass surveillance dystopia.
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It's always important to listen to the bear case, and this is one of the most cogent bear cases I've heard regarding the future of AI. One under-covered aspect of this is the fact that the indices (S&P500) are bending their own rules to admit these upcoming IPOs - that means nearly all Americans invested in the markets are instantly forced to participate in non-revenue-generating businesses before these these companies even issue a single financial report. Incredibly dangerous and corrupt.
Went on Bloomberg - Anthropic and OpenAI are dangerous and unsustainable companies that shouldn’t IPO. The AI bubble is a con and retail investors are the marks. AI doesn’t have ROI, it’s nothing like AWS/Uber, and it’s got no post-bubble recovery story. youtube.com/watch?v=zbKDmkJP…
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Some real surprises on this list...stark evidence of the bifurcated nature of these markets.
All these stocks hit new 52 WEEK LOWS at some point today Chipotle Mexican Grill $CMG Nu Holdings $NU American Water Works $AWK Conagra Brands $CAG CME Group $CME Copart $CPRT Erie Indemnity $ERIE GFL Environmental $GFL Haleon $HLN Intercontinental Exchange $ICE Intuitive Surgical $ISRG Lowe's $LOW Mastercard $MA Medtronic $MDT National Fuel Gas $NFG O'Reilly Automotive $ORLY ResMed $RMD Rollins $ROL Service Corp $SCI Sherwin-Williams $SHW Sanofi $SNY Suzano $SUZ Molson Coors $TAP Tradeweb Markets $TW Waste Connections $WCN
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Keep one eye on the $COST and $WMT sell-off. The battle royale of this bifurcated market is unfurling, as these head lower, while memory and storage continue flying high.
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The Nvidia/Microsoft announcement of a locally hosted, agentic computer is roiling mega-cap tech, and yet few are even talking about it. Cloud providers are getting smashed (Google, Amazon). There might be something to it. It might be an over-reaction. Too soon to tell. It could be a paradigm shift of great magnitude - but is this partnership the one to pull it off? That is less clear.
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It's an extremely thin and bifurcated market to start this week. #Bullish $SMH, $DRAM #Bearish everything else June could get tricky, with inflationary supply shocks incoming, and SpaceX siphoning liquidity and rearranging indices. Stay nimble and take trades.
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Worth a read. There will be a pain and suffering trigger coming. We are overdue. This one seems plausible.
Everyone should read what Senior Vice President of Exxon Neil Chapman says about the oil price surge coming in 2-3 weeks The next wave of the energy shock is approaching fast
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Stocks beginning to rotate away from some of the high fliers back to software. I've been picking at $MSFT , $HOOD, and $NOW - may be for trades, may be something longer-term. It really depends on this wild and woolly macro environment. At some point, it will matter, but it's been impossible to time.
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Useful roadmap.
Every central banker in history, when forced to choose between a fast death and a slow death, has made the same call. Every single time. Without exception. Kevin Warsh is about to make it again and most people have no idea what they're about to lose.
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I hope everyone aped into $KXIAY when I brought it up at $12/share. It's rocketing in anticipation of its US ADR. Full disclosure, I sold mine and will re-enter into the ADR once it's released. I could not find any information about how the OTC shares would be handled. I don't like the uncertainty. A 100% gain and a 175% gain in two separate trades means that I feel ok about waiting for the ADR to get back in.
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Don't sleep on this new @CorgiFunds ETF $CQTM - their quantum computing fund. There's a few quantum compute funds already out there, but their assets under management are much larger. Big-name funds need to weight their funds heavily into large cap equities to soak up AUM. But a Corgi-sized fund can ape into the small caps and start-ups. No other fund does what this one is doing. I want to be in quantum, but I don't want to over-invest or bag-hold a bunch of names long-term. One winner in this space will pay for the losers. But still high-risk, until these Corgi pups grow up and develop a track record. This is categorically NOT, I repeat, NOT a good trading fund (at least not yet) due to the lack of AUM and liquidity, but if you want a basket of the speculative quantum compute stocks, without having to hold all the individual names or stock-pick, then this is the way. Not financial advice, but I'm pointing out what makes this unique among quantum compute funds....
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