Covering The Intersection Of Geopolitics, Global Markets, & Economic Confidence | Follow @ArmstrongEcon for more

United States
According to the Central Election Commission, with over 95% of votes counted, United Russia won 57.83% of the vote, securing 355 out of 450 seats. This was in line with our computer establishing a historic high and a constitutional supermajority where we saw resistance at 60%. The Communist Party (KPRF) came second with 13.81% of the vote, gaining 40 seats. The younger generation does NOT want a resturn to communism. This was the older generation that wants a free lunch and to be just taken care of as they face the nursing home in their life. LDPR: Received 8.98% of the vote, winning 25 seats and the New People came in at 7.96% of the vote and 20 seats. The Just Russia barely missed the 5% threshold, but appeared to have secured a few seats. Official turnout was reported at a record 59.3%.
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Russia held its State Duma elections from September 18 to 20, 2026. The pro-Kremlin United Russia party won a record-breaking landslide, but the election was widely criticized internationally as neither free nor fair because they want to believe their own propaganda that Russia is losing and the people will surrender to whatever terms they demand.
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Russia held its State Duma elections from September 18 to 20. The pro-Kremlin United Russia party won a record-breaking landslide, but the election was widely criticized internationally as neither free nor fair because they want to believe their own propaganda that Russia is losing and the people will surrender to whatever terms they demand. zurl.co/NrQqi
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Armstrong Economics retweeted
Today, I sat down with Martin Armstrong @StrongEconomics to talk about one of the biggest questions facing investors right now: what happens to the #dollar? While many people are warning that the dollar could collapse, Martin Armstrong sees it differently. He believes the dollar can remain dominant for years and says major de-dollarization may not happen until after 2032. His argument is that money continues to flow toward the United States, even as the country faces a growing debt problem. We also went deeper into #gold and China. Armstrong believes China is not simply buying gold because it expects the price to rise. He sees it as part of a bigger strategy to protect against geopolitical risk and prepare for a world where the global financial system could change. From there, we opened up the conversation to U.S. debt, inflation, gold, war, Europe, politics and the future of the global economy. Armstrong also explains why he believes gold could enter a new bull market around 2027 and why he expects major political and economic changes in the years ahead. One of the biggest questions I asked him was simple: What is the hard truth people need to understand right now? His answer came back to something much bigger than any single investment: understand where the system is going before you decide where you want to be. I sat down with Martin today to unpack where he believes the dollar, gold, debt and global financial system could be heading next. Watch the full conversation 👇 piped.video/otypSDhe7Us?si=RspG…
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Argentina’s Javier Milei walked into the United Nations and told the bureaucrats sitting before him exactly what he thought of them. He said the organization had become “useless” and existed to support what he called a caste of “fatally arrogant parasites” masquerading as well-intentioned bureaucrats. zurl.co/TFDPZ
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When Did a Military Coup Become Acceptable in America? 683 Democratic voters and found that 59% would feel either “very positive” or “somewhat positive” if Donald Trump were removed from office through a military coup supposedly intended to safeguard the Constitution. zurl.co/qNkHg
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I will do an update after running the models on civil unrest. God help us. It is going to get ugly into 2028. This is going to be the confrontation that lead to deep division in the USA and the eventual collapse of the Republican form of government as we reach 2032. zurl.co/mSMps
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Iran Is Watching Its Economy Collapse in Real Time - The Statistical Center of Iran reports that GDP collapsed 10.1% during the first quarter of the Iranian calendar year, from March 21 through June 20, compared with the same period last year. zurl.co/1bpLH
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The Saudis are facing Iran across the Persian Gulf and the Houthis across the Red Sea. Their oil infrastructure is increasingly squeezed between Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. When Riyadh needed someone capable of carrying a serious message into Tehran, it turned toward Beijing. That is how geopolitical power changes hands. Not with some grand announcement. Not because politicians hold a press conference declaring a new world order.
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Saudi Arabia understands that China has skin in the game. If Bab el-Mandeb closes while Hormuz remains disrupted, Beijing suffers immediately. Chinese manufacturers face higher energy costs.
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China’s interests are brutally straightforward. It needs Hormuz open. It needs Bab el-Mandeb open. It needs Saudi oil, Iranian oil and Gulf trade. It does not want an ideological crusade in the Middle East because wars interrupt commerce. Beijing is not doing this out of charity. It is protecting China.
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Reuters reported back in July that Beijing had already established direct contact with the Houthis seeking guarantees that Chinese tankers could safely transit the southern Red Sea.
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China has leverage with Iran because Iran needs China economically. Beijing remains Iran’s largest trading partner and principal customer for its oil. At the same time, China has spent years deepening economic relationships with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the rest of the Gulf.
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Roughly half of China’s oil imports come from the Middle East, while trade between China and the Gulf Cooperation Council states is around $300 billion annually. More than 80% of Iran’s seaborne oil exports went to China in 2025, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. Beijing does not need some humanitarian lecture from the United Nations to understand what is at stake. Its factories need energy and its economy needs those shipping lanes OPEN.
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China buys Iranian oil. It trades heavily with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. It needs energy from the entire region. It has no economic interest in watching Iran shut Hormuz while the Houthis turn Bab el-Mandeb into another battlefield.
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Something rather extraordinary has happened in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has turned to China for help with Iran and the Houthis. Riyadh appealed to Beijing after the Houthis advanced along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and around Bab el-Mandeb, threatening the western route Saudi Arabia increasingly depends upon for oil exports. China then privately approached Tehran and asked Iran to use its influence to restrain the Houthis and prevent the conflict from spreading further across the region’s energy routes.
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The neocons continue to believe that economic pressure will bring Russia to its knees. They never consider what happens when their policies instead fragment the world economy, push Russia and China closer together, alienate India, increase energy prices, and undermine confidence in Western financial institutions.
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The most disturbing aspect is that sanctions have replaced diplomacy. Graham believed squeezing Putin economically would force Russia to reconsider the war. That is the theory behind virtually every sanctions regime. Yet sanctions have a terrible historical record of forcing major powers to surrender their core geopolitical objectives. More often, they encourage self-sufficiency, alternative alliances, black markets, and new trading blocs. Russia redirected energy toward Asia. China learned that dependence upon Western technology and finance represents a strategic vulnerability
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When politicians weaponize that system against anyone they dislike, they undermine the very confidence that made the dollar dominant in the first place. That does NOT mean the yuan suddenly replaces the dollar tomorrow. China has capital controls and lacks the deep open capital markets required of a true reserve currency. But Washington is nevertheless encouraging the rest of the world to develop alternatives.
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Regarding the weaponization of SWIFT - the dollar became the world’s reserve currency because people trusted the American financial system. Reserve currency status is not something Congress can legislate. It is based upon confidence.
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