Trader since 2017. Crypto, metals & macro. Charts & market observations.
- Tweets 2,345
- Following 714
- Followers 461
- Likes 1,767
Seeing all the usual accounts posting hopeful posts about #SILVER recovering again today.
Lets zoom into the 1H chart to see what's really going on today.
🔴 We had a 200 EMA rejection (again)
🔴 Momentum flipping bearish
It's not really putting a dent in the 5% bearish candle we had last monday.
1
118
US payrolls added just 29k jobs in September while the unemployment rate came in at 4.2%. These figures can quickly reset expectations across equities, currencies, and yields.
2
72
What now for #SILVER?
Short term momentum is bottoming and a retest of the Trend Band around $63 would be a likely scenario.
I do not expect a break above the Trend Band and price most likely will head lower once short term momentum resets.
2
143
#Gold ($XAU) is heading to $3,300.
That's around 20% lower from here.
There’s major structural support at that level, along with the 200 EMA — which Gold hasn’t touched in around 4 years.
I know the macro case for Gold is strong, but you can’t look at this chart and tell me it’s bullish right now.
And importantly, Gold could retrace that far and still remain in a bullish structure on the monthly.
I’ve been saying this all year.
3
230
Still seeing so many posts saying #Silver ($XAG) is still in an uptrend.
Just look at the candle sizes.
From the July low we had a month of big bullish candles and much smaller bearish candles.
Since around 28 August, that has completely flipped.
Now the bearish candles are the big ones and the bullish candles are mostly small.
That tells you a lot about who is in control.
Silver is now only around 8% away from making a new low.
3
321
#Silver ($XAG) down nearly 4% at the moment. And it's not surprising when you look at the 4H chart
1. Price lost trend band and 200EMA support last Wednesday
2. Retest and rejection on Friday
3. Heavy bearish momentum.
If it closes below $62 today then it will have lost trend band support on the daily too with building bearish momentum.
I've been saying for months that $70 would likely be the top of this rally and that new lows are likely. At the very least I expect to sweep the yearly low.
Not many people wanted to hear that though 🤷♂️
2
1,250
#Silver ($XAG) has returned to its most significant support zone once again.
Price has interacted with this area repeatedly over the past year, and it also aligns with the bottom of the Trend Band adding further significance to the level.
The question now: does Silver bounce again, or finally break lower?
Momentum signals are looking very bearish.
A clean loss of this support would open the door for a move back towards the yearly lows around $55.
5
892
I've been saying for nearly 2 months that $70 would likely be the local high, and that ultimately #silver would head to the Weekly 200 EMA (currently $45).
So far that is playing out as I predicted. But it's still a long way from the 200 EMA.
#SILVER ($XAG) breaking out and already people calling for new all time highs.
Slow down and zoom out.
4H:
Price has broken above the 200EMA for the first time since may.
Momentum looks strong confirming we likely get a decent rally in the short term
DAILY:
Short term momentum looks good but there is significant resitance in the Trend band and 200 EMA above.
WEEKLY:
This is where we get the clearest picture of whats going on.
Short term momentum picking up with a projection zone printing over the Trend Band at ~$70.
But long term momentum still heading down with an unresolved projection zone hovering over the 200EMA.
CONCLUSION:
Silver could put in a move all the way up to $70. Chances of going higher are low unless longer term momentum starts to change.
Long term it still has unfinished business at the Weekly 200EMA and low price projection zone.
1
301
Sizeable drop for #SILVER yesterday. Back below the 200 EMA. Bearish momentum looks to continue.
2
142
What’s the short-term outlook for #Gold ($XAU)?
On the 4H, Gold has printed another lower high and rejected from the Trend Band. Momentum remains weak.
Interestingly, the 1H is now printing a Projection Zone directly over the month-long support level.
That makes another test of support look increasingly likely in the near term.
Watch $4,250. 👀
2
220
My favourite scenario would be for everyone to FOMO into #bitcoin now and then for it to dump to $50k in October. And for @benjamincowen to retract his appology. 😂
I'm hedged with an average entry of $62k so its all fun and games from here 🤟
1
81
$BTC is only a few hours into the new week, but something significant is developing on the weekly chart.
If Bitcoin can hold above $82k into the weekly close, it will officially print a higher high on the weekly.
If that happens, the case for a fresh low in Q4 becomes a lot harder to make.
1
101