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NEW: Survation MRP for @38degrees as seen in the @guardian today
Labour: 272
Reform: 153
Conservative: 85
Lib Dem: 69
SNP: 40
Plaid Cymru: 8
Green: 3
Other: 1
Read more: theguardian.com/politics/202…
1/6
40
84
214
79,507
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention
LAB 27% (-1)
RFM 24% (+1)
CON 21% (=)
LD 11% (+1)
GRN 7% (-1)
SNP 3% (+1)
PC 2% (=)
RB 2% (=)
OTH 4% (=)
F/w 22-23 September 2026. Changes vs 10/09/2026
10
42
106
10,527
Confidence in the governments ability to address the issues remains largely unchanged:
Confidence in the UK government:
% confident (4-5) in their ability to address each area, NET vs not confident (1-2):
Education: 30% confident / 36% not (NET -6)
National security: 30% confident / 39% not (NET -10)
Industrial relations: 26% confident / 36% not (NET -10)
The NHS: 30% confident / 43% not (NET -13)
The environment: 26% confident / 40% not (NET -13)
Climate change: 25% confident / 40% not (NET -15)
Housing: 25% confident / 45% not (NET -20)
The economy: 25% confident / 46% not (NET -21)
Immigration: 22% confident / 57% not (NET -34)
Refugees and asylum seekers: 21% confident / 57% not (NET -35)
F/w 22-23 September 2026.
1
1
3
875
Get the data:
Survation conducted an online poll of 1,224 adults aged 18+ in the UK on their voting intentions.
Fieldwork was conducted on between 22nd - 23rd September 2026
Tables are available here: cdn.survation.com/wp-content…
1
1
775
NEW:
Who’s in Second Place? Estimating Tactical Voting in an Era of Extreme Volatility
survation.com/whos-in-second…
The political landscape has changed since 2024 - at the last election, Conservative vs Labour being the top two accounted for almost 50% of races. At the next election, most top two races would be between Labour and Reform, according to our MRP.
We explain how tactical voting in this new era of volatility could affect the outcome of the next general election, who is tactically voting now, and who could in the future.
Also explore the full MRP with our interactive map, showing our projected results in each constituency:
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13
4,762
NEW: Britain voted for change. Two years on, Labour is being judged on it.
Our poll and MRP for @38degrees finds a country that has stopped feeling better off:
Better off than a year ago: 24% → 12%
About the same: 29% → 43%
Worse off: 43% → 40%
Read more: survation.com/britain-voted-…
1/6
1
6
23
47,365
The Progressive Majority now makes up nine in ten Labour voters, but it isn't one bloc.
What's missing is hope, not grievance.
Majorities in every segment say politicians serve the super-rich, but:
94% of Trusting Optimists say their vote matters
27% of Struggling Sceptics do
5/6
1
1
626
Immigration is the biggest source of disunity: the only issue where Reform is more trusted than Labour.
Labour holds the issue that unites the country; Reform the one that divides it.
Read the full analysis here: survation.com/britain-voted-…
1
603
NEW: Survation MRP for @38degrees as seen in the @guardian today
Labour: 272
Reform: 153
Conservative: 85
Lib Dem: 69
SNP: 40
Plaid Cymru: 8
Green: 3
Other: 1
Read more: theguardian.com/politics/202…
1/6
40
84
214
79,507
There are 356 seats where Reform have less than a 10% chance of winning, and 80 more where they have a 10-30% chance
5/6
1
2
5
2,168
Get the data:
Survation conducted an online poll of 8,124 adults in the UK on behalf of @38degrees between 20 August and 4 September 2026
MRP estimates are available to download here: cdn.survation.com/wp-content…
6/6
2
5
1,931