Warsh left the timing of the next hike to the data at Jackson Hole.
First test: Friday 8:30am ET, August jobs. No CPI, no FOMC this week. Just this print.
He also dropped the usual market-support language, so the number lands harder than a normal payrolls Friday, nothing from the Fed afterward to cushion it.
Likely Scenarios:
· Strong jobs, unemployment flat or down → September hike becomes base case, and with no Fed walk-back the odds move fast. Dollar up, front-end yields up, gold and crypto sold.
· Weak jobs, unemployment up → the hawkish Jackson Hole bid fades. Dollar down, risk bounces, hike slips to October or December.
· In-line → nothing resolved. Vol stays elevated into September 11 CPI, which then becomes the decider.
A September hike is 50/50 right now, consensus still leans to later. One number, big swing either way