The 10Y Note yield is now up nearly +30 basis points in 2 days.
Prior to the last 48 hours, the last time we saw a move of this magnitude was during “Liberation Day” in April 2025.
Prior to that, we had not seen a move like this since 2022.
What the bond market is doing right now is remarkable.
It's official.
As the bond market "meltdown" accelerates, the average interest rate on a 30Y mortgage in the US is up to 7.45%.
That's up +150 basis points in 6 months and the highest since 2023, when inflation was at 6.4%+.
What is happening? Let us explain.
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Huge news.
President Trump appears to have confirmed our August 11th post regarding potentially imminent capital gains tax cuts.
We may soon see the first major federal capital gains tax cut since 2003, when the top long-term capital gains tax rate was reduced from 20% to 15%.
More to come on @KobeissiLetter.
BREAKING: President Trump posts a screenshot of our August 11th post regarding his reported capital gains tax cut discussions, including "indexing" capital gains for inflation before taxes are calculated.
It appears President Trump is actively considering capital gains tax cuts.
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Adam Kobeissi retweeted
BREAKING: President Trump posts a screenshot of our August 11th post regarding his reported capital gains tax cut discussions, including "indexing" capital gains for inflation before taxes are calculated.
It appears President Trump is actively considering capital gains tax cuts.
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The growth of AI is being vastly underestimated.
At its core, Nvidia's earnings report confirmed that AI is not just growing. It's accelerating.
The company now sees its next-year sales growth surging to +70%, crushing already high expectations
This implies $673 billion in revenue next year.
Nvidia's growth has market-wide implications, and somehow, it still seems early.
Read our full analysis below.
Most people don't realize what just happened.
Nvidia just posted what we believe are the most impressive earnings in history, with market-wide implications.
This implies $670+ BILLION in revenue next year, up +2,390% from FY2023.
What's happening? Let us explain.
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Adam Kobeissi retweeted
What's happening now in gold and crypto should not come as a surprise.
If it does come as a surprise, you are likely not following the correct leading indicators.
This is the era of US Treasury intervention, elevated inflation, and record deficit spending.
Below is a clip of our founder, @TKL_Adam, on Fox Business with @cvpayne exactly 37 days ago.
As gold fell below $4,000/oz, we began calling for a rally to $4,500+ as market conditions were clearly shifting.
Since then, gold has added +$4.5 trillion in market cap, Bitcoin is up +30%, and yields are roughly unchanged.
Keep following the leading indicators.
Asset owners are the only winners in this market.
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The most interesting part about today's US Treasury intervention is the way it was worded.
"Treasury will provide more information about future buyback sizes on November 4th."
This is just the beginning.
It's official.
On July 31st, we called for US government intervention as long-term borrowing costs hit 2008 levels.
Today, it happened. The US Treasury is DOUBLING buybacks to $4 billion per operation for "liquidity support."
What comes next? Let us explain.
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Adam Kobeissi retweeted
A historic rotation is underway.
On July 15th, @TKL_Adam joined Fox Business and called for a rotation back into the Magnificent 7 to lead the S&P 500 to 8,000.
The recent market leadership of chip stocks allowed the Magnificent 7 to correct, while still seeing historic earnings growth, without dragging the broader S&P 500 index lower.
This was the largest such divergence between the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 since 2022.
Less than 3 weeks since this clip with @TKL_Adam and @cvpayne, the S&P 500 is now above 7,700, Microsoft and Amazon are up +25% in 5 days, and the S&P 500 is worth a record $70 trillion.
Many of these large cap technology names are now trading CHEAPER than the S&P 500 on a Forward P/E basis.
Ironically, many stocks in this market are getting cheaper as they go up.
Own assets or be left behind.
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Inflation has now been above the Fed's 2% target for 64-straight months.
Since March 2021, we have not had a single US CPI inflation print at or below 2.0%.
Fed Chair Warsh pledges to end this seemingly endless wave of inflation.
This goal has been explicit, the market knows this, but how will the Fed achieve this?
The recent surge in yields reflects exactly that, resulting in a paradox that sums it all up:
Uncertainty is at multi-year highs, yet no one wants bonds.
The bond market situation is crazy.
While everyone focuses on AI, US borrowing rates just hit the highest level since June 2007.
Credit card "serious delinquencies" are at the highest since 2010 and mortgage rates could near 8%.
What's happening? Let us explain.
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What's happening in South Korea's stock market has truly been one of the most incredible things to witness in decades.
South Korea's KOSPI went from barely being in the top 15 largest stock markets to 6th in a matter of months, worth $5 trillion.
40 days later and nearly half of the country's market cap has been erased with an "emergency meeting" being convened by regulators.
The next few months will be for the history books.
Our outlook is summarized below.
Absolutely incredible.
In an unprecedented move, South Korea's stock market just collapsed -44% in 40 days, erasing -$2 trillion in market cap.
Now, South Korea's finance ministry has announced plans to "stabilize" the market.
What is happening? Let us explain.
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Looking forward to joining the great Charles Payne, @cvpayne, today on Fox Business at 2:50 PM ET!
I will be discussing @KobeissiLetter's latest market outlook as we kick off the second half of 2026.
Lots to consider ranging from geopolitics, to AI, to interest rates.
Tune in LIVE at 2:50 PM ET!
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It's rare to experience a time like we are experiencing now.
Both risk appetite and uncertainty are arguably at their highest levels in recent history.
These two phenomena rarely exist simultaneously and typically emerge during periods of transformative innovation.
Normally, investors do not seek risk exposure into uncertainty.
But, this time is different. Investors know AI is the "next big thing," but no one knows exactly where it all leads.
The result will be broader swings in the market amid historic innovation.
Capitalize on the volatility.
What just happened?
In just 27 minutes, the Nasdaq 100 just fell -1,000 points and the S&P 500 erased -$1 TRILLION without any major headlines.
The Nasdaq opened +1% higher then fell -3% between 9:30 AM and 9:57 AM ET.
What does it all mean? Let us explain.
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Adam Kobeissi retweeted
The Youngest Gold Bug Likes Stocks, Too
"Making Money" Clips
Special Guest: @TKL_Adam
foxbusiness.com/video/639756…
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I am joining Charles Payne, @cvpayne, on Fox Business today at 2:30 PM ET to give an update on @KobeissiLetter's "own assets or be left behind" thesis.
Also discussing our outlook for the AI trade, S&P 500, gold, oil, and more.
We see an eventful second half of 2026 ahead.
Tune in LIVE at 2:30 PM ET!
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American consumers are now facing 7%+ mortgage rates, 4%+ inflation, and a 30% loss in the purchasing power of the US Dollar since 2020.
The second half of 2026 is going to be interesting to say the least.
Bond markets are flashing red.
Today, the US 30Y Note Yield officially hit its highest level since July 2007, at 5.19%.
This will soon become Americans’ biggest problem, yet the vast majority do not even know it is happening.
What is happening? Let us explain.
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Just about all key measures of inflation are saying the same thing:
Inflation in the US is at a 3+ year high.
Luckily, those who have followed our work at @KobeissiLetter welcome this development, accumulating assets for 12+ months.
Asset owners will be the only winners.
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Today, US CPI inflation officially hit its highest level in 3 years, yet the Dow closed green. Why?
As inflation accelerates, our 12+ month thesis to "own assets or be left behind" is only gaining more momentum.
I will be joining @ErinBurnett on CNN at 7:00 PM ET tonight to discuss @KobeissiLetter's latest market outlook.
Tune in LIVE at 7:00 PM ET!
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Efficient, free markets had a solution to avoid the Spirit Airlines implosion. Instead, the worst possible outcome was catalyzed by government interference, which was intended to correct a “failure” of capitalism but instead replaced it with a historic catastrophe.
This is truly unfortunate:
In 2022, JetBlue had agreed to merge with Spirit Airlines in a $3.8 billion transaction.
This was intended to end Spirit's imminent bankruptcy and employ the majority of Spirit's 17,000 employees.
One year later, in 2023, the US Department of Justice sued to block the merger, saying it would reduce competition and drive up fares.
Fast forward another 2 years to today, and Spirit has officially gone bankrupt, ceased operations, and 17,000 people are now unemployed.
And, tens of thousands of Spirit passengers are now "stranded."
The worst part?
The "reduced competition" that the DOJ thought they were avoiding by blocking the transaction has only gotten worse.
There quite literally is no competition in the space anymore.
This will go down as one of the biggest transactional failures in US history.
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Directly from Step #10 of our "Conflict Playbook:"
"By the time negotiations become credible, investors are typically defensively allocated. Energy exposure is elevated, equity risk has been reduced, and volatility is elevated due to the implicit uncertainty. When uncertainty suddenly collapses, those positions unwind quickly, as seen in April 2025, August 2025, October 2025, and January 2026."
We can now add April 2026 to this list.
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This chart says it all:
US tech valuations have compressed from 40x to 20x Forward P/E in weeks.
Tech valuations are now LOWER than they were when ChatGPT was announced.
As the Iran War drives markets lower, AI is only getting bigger.
Record highs are on the horizon.
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When we published our first playbook on January 17th, titled the "Tariff Playbook," it received a widespread positive response and 20+ million views.
But, beyond the playbook's virality, it clearly outlined our methodical approach to navigating financial markets during geopolitical conflicts under President Trump.
Today, our second playbook, the "Conflict Playbook," published on March 3rd, has progressed to Step #9 of 10, tracking just slightly behind our original 4-week timeline.
Over the coming weeks, we expect Step #10 to materialize.
The last 38 days have only reaffirmed our view:
Systematic investors are operating in what may be the most profitable market conditions in history right now.
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