I break down the probability of various outcomes on politics, geopolitics, and markets For educational purposes only, not advice

Based in North America
(2/6) ๐—•๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ธ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ฑ: Even a brief general ceasefire counts if both sides agree on a start date. Energy-only deals do not.
1
40
๐——๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป: 18% chance Russia and Ukraine agree to a general ceasefire by Dec 31, 2026. Hereโ€™s why ๐Ÿ‘‡
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2
58
๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ณ ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—–๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฑ ๐—ฆ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ ๐—ฎ ๐—จ๐—ฆ-๐—–๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฎ ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐—ฟ
2
168
(2/8) ๐—•๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ธ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ฑ: Somaliland has governed itself since 1991, but Somalia claims it. Its Gulf of Aden port, Berbera, gives it something Washington wants: access near the Red Sea. US recognition would change its diplomatic standing.
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1
121
๐——๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป: 12% chance the US formally recognizes Somaliland as a sovereign state by December 31, 2026. Hereโ€™s why ๐Ÿ‘‡
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2
139
Hey @grok which of these countries would be the hardest to invade and occupy? Rank all 6 Assume no nukes, no allies, and no foreign military bases
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2
99
๐——๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป: 19% chance Venezuela sets a pre-2030 presidential election date by Dec 31, 2026. ๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜€: 12% chance Hereโ€™s why ๐Ÿ‘‡
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1
94
๐——๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป: 34% chance Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31, 2026. ๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜€: 19% chance Hereโ€™s why ๐Ÿ‘‡
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121
๐—ฃ๐—ฅ๐—˜๐——๐—œ๐—–๐—ง๐—œ๐—ข๐—ก: 85% Chance a Judge Reverses Trumpโ€™s Press Ban by October 5. Prediction Markets: 79% odds by Sept 30 (not exact match) Hereโ€™s why ๐Ÿ‘‡
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113
IN 4 DAYS, THE WORLD FINDS OUT IF THIS PRESIDENT IS A WAR CRIMINAL. Watch This. In 5 minutes, you can make your prediction before the verdict drops. Hashim Thaรงi was a national war hero who helped lead Kosovoโ€™s fight for independence, then rose all the way to the presidency. Now heโ€™s on trial in The Hague. So how did he get here? And will he actually be convicted? I went through the case, the evidence, and the arguments on both sides. My Prediction: In the video Prediction Markets: No active market
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548