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When ChatGPT launched in late 2022, the consensus inside China’s AI industry was that domestic labs were roughly two years behind on models, while export controls would leave China’s AI stack woefully incomplete. Three and a half years later, that framing looks ... outdated. DeepSeek and GLM forced a rethink of what was possible on the model building and also inference side. Meituan LongCat raises the same question for training. None of this means China has caught up. Nvidia still has a massive manufacturing advantage, and US labs continue to lead in enterprise adoption, developer ecosystems and revenue. But we do think the burden of proof has shifted. The question is no longer simply whether China can build a frontier AI stack on domestic infrastructure. It’s how quickly that stack improves from here.
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Meituan's LongCat-2.5-Preview goes live with 1.6T parameters Meituan's LongCat API platform launched LongCat-2.5-Preview on September 25. It's a mixture-of-experts model with about 1.6 trillion total parameters, activating roughly 48 billion per inference. The model adds image understanding, claims strong coding performance, and supports a 1 million token context window natively. The pitch is long-horizon tasks: ultra-long documents, codebases, logs, multi-turn complex work. Meituan says it integrates with Claude Code, Hermes, OpenClaw, OpenCode, and Kilo Code. Our read: Meituan wants developer mindshare, not just internal logistics AI. The 1M context and coding focus target agentic workflows where Meituan's local commerce data could eventually differentiate. But this is a preview release with no benchmark numbers yet, so actual capability is unproven. We'd argue the more interesting question is whether LongCat-2.5 can turn that parameter count into reliable long-task performance. Only 48B parameters activate per token, which leaves a lot of dormant capacity to manage. $MPNGY
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This one connects to an earlier TBC piece: - The DeepSeek Leak and China’s AI Hardware Claims (Jul 2026) techbuzzchina.substack.com/p…
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Alibaba names Liu Da Yiheng to lead Qwen Alibaba has put Liu Da Yiheng, a former Huawei "genius youth" researcher, in charge of its Qwen large-model team. He replaces Lin Junyang. $BABA
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Alibaba has named Liu Da Yiheng, a former Huawei 'genius youth' researcher, to lead its Qwen large-model team. He succeeds Lin Junyang. We'd argue this is less a leadership shuffle than a signal that Alibaba intends to keep Qwen at the front of China's AI model race.
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Alibaba, ByteDance and DeepSeek All Chase 10-Trillion-Parameter Models At Alibaba's Yunqi conference on September 22, CEO Eddie Wu said the company is preparing to train a new model with 5 trillion to 10 trillion parameters. Alibaba's Liu Dayiheng put Qwen 4.5 and Qwen 5 on the same 5T-10T trajectory. The Information reported the same day that DeepSeek is training a roughly 2-trillion-parameter model, with Liang Wenfeng telling investors the next step is 8 trillion. In August, the Financial Times reported ByteDance is training a model of up to 10 trillion parameters. For scale: DeepSeek-R1, the model that set off the 2025 wave, had 671 billion parameters, less than one-fifteenth of 10 trillion. The bill is the story. Our read: the parameter number is mostly a claim on the next generation's starting position, not a promise about the current one. That is why the same labs can push Flash-style cheap models and 10T flagships at once. What that architecture does not decouple is the data bill. We're not convinced the 10T framing survives contact with deployment. The race is real. h/t @TMTPostGlobal
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One archive note that helps here: - The DeepSeek Leak and China’s AI Hardware Claims (Jul 2026) techbuzzchina.substack.com/p…
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Unitree founder: robot bottleneck is millimeter-level work error At the Global Digital Trade Expo in Hangzhou on September 24, Unitree founder Wang Xingxing said the core bottleneck for humanoid robots is whether they can resolve work errors of a few millimeters. His benchmark for the industry's "ChatGPT moment": a robot that can complete 80% of tasks in 80% of unfamiliar scenarios via voice and embodied capabilities. Wang said robots can already follow spoken instructions to perform specific tasks. But AI model input and output don't match the physical world precisely enough, leaving millimeter-level errors. "Whoever solves this problem solves the robot problem completely," he said. Our read: the 80/80 threshold is a useful framing, but it masks the harder question of whether the error is a software or hardware problem. Millimeter-level precision in unstructured environments is as much about actuators and sensing as it is about model generalization. Unitree's own admission that new tasks require retraining suggests the bottleneck is precision and adaptability. Wang made similar comments at WRC 2026 in August, saying efficiency and capability are still too low for large-scale deployment in factories and homes. He wants more generalized technology and more precise capabilities before pushing into specific scenarios.
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Earlier TBC coverage that frames this one: - Unitree Can Build the Body, Can It Build the Mind? (Mar 2026) techbuzzchina.substack.com/p… - Our May 2026 note on this
China's embodied AI companies are racing toward scale, and the bottleneck isn't the robots anymore, it's real-world data. At GEIS, a robotics conference in Silicon Valley, the consensus became clear: synthetic data alone doesn't work because it can't capture friction coefficients, latency, tactile feedback. So the industry has converged on hybrid training. Magic Atoms collects about 16,000 data points daily from real deployments, then synthesizes that 10,000x. Unitree posted 5,500 units shipped in 2025 ($17.07 billion revenue, over 50% from overseas). The companies winning at scale aren't the ones with the best algorithms, they're the ones with the most efficient data loops from actual deployment sites. The hard part isn't building better robots. It's getting robots into messy real environments fast enough to find failure modes labs never see, wet floors, rust, bright light, multiple systems running. OpenMind founder Jan Liphardt made this explicit: deploy early or fail late. That's why new energy vehicle manufacturing is now the primary data mine for training. The factories are already moving parts; robots just need to learn by doing it alongside humans who can correct them. On embodied "brains," VLA (vision-language-action) dominates because touch sensors are still immature. Amazon AI researcher Haozhi Qi noted the architecture choice is really just engineering pragmatism: vision sensors work, so use them to compensate for weak tactile systems. Meanwhile, dexterous hands are splitting into three paths: linkage (cheap, simple), tendon (fine manipulation, expensive), direct drive (balanced, heat management unsolved). The emerging winner is hybrid: tendon structure for precision plus AI for control. The bottleneck in dexterity isn't physics, it's learning efficiency. A robot that can't learn from failure stays expensive.
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Huawei's Ascend 950 supernode hits commercial scale Huawei launched the Ascend 950 supernode at its Connect 2026 conference. It calls the product the industry's largest commercially deployed supernode. The liquid-cooled Atlas 950 SuperPoD holds 1,024 NPUs with unified memory addressing and 2.1x higher interconnect bandwidth. Huawei claims 1.5-1.7x training efficiency gains. It also claims sub-10ms inference latency for trillion-parameter MoE models. A companion air-cooled Atlas 850E fits standard enterprise racks. Companies skip the cost of liquid-cooling retrofits. Our read: Huawei is shifting from selling chips to selling compute as a service. This launch extends that. The hard part is no longer the NPU count. It is the software and network reliability that make 1,024 cards behave like one machine. The orthogonal architecture removes 50 km of copper per node. Liquid-cooled optical modules cut power and latency. That is what separates a paper supernode from one enterprises can actually deploy. H/t @Chinazhidx
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Earlier TBC coverage that frames this one: - The DeepSeek Leak and China’s AI Hardware Claims (Jul 2026) Https://techbuzzchina.substa… - Our May 2026 note on this Https://x.com/TechBuzzChina/…
China has a new AI “supercluster” in Wuxi is part of a much bigger national push to replace Nvidia-centric AI infrastructure with domestic stacks built around Huawei Ascend chips. On May 15, Hongxin Electronics signed an agreement with the Wuxi High-tech Zone to deploy Jiangsu’s first Huawei Ascend 384 supernode cluster. The first phase links four Ascend 384 systems into a 1,536-GPU-equivalent supercluster that will power a new “Token Factory” focused on large-scale AI inference and model serving. This fits into a broader Chinese strategy already visible in Anhui, Guizhou, and Inner Mongolia. China’s bet is that advanced networking, optical interconnects, and cluster-scale engineering can compensate for weaker individual chips under US export controls. Hongxin itself started as a flexible printed circuit and electronics components company before pivoting aggressively into AI computing infrastructure during China’s generative AI boom. The chips may be Chinese-designed Huawei Ascend processors rather than Nvidia GPUs, but the supply chain is more complicated than the domestic narrative suggests. Ascend chips are designed by Huawei, but analysts have noted that earlier Ascend generations still relied on globally sourced tooling, memory, and in some cases outsourced fabrication. OpenAI, Microsoft, Meta, and xAI run large clusters in the US using some of the most advanced chips from Nvidia NVL72 and GB200 systems. China is increasingly trying to win at the system level - connecting larger numbers of local chips into tightly integrated “supernodes” that behave like a single AI computer.
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Unitree tops both quadruped robot rankings, but the No. 2 is disputed On September 21, Counterpoint and IDC each published a global quadruped robot market report. Unitree is first in both. After that, the lists stop agreeing. Counterpoint ranks by shipments and puts Zhiyuan Kutu second. IDC ranks by hardware revenue and puts Deep Robotics second. In industry applications, Unitree drops to fourth by shipments, and the two firms again name different leaders. The totals are just as far apart. Counterpoint counts nearly 35,000 units shipped in H1 2026, with 40% going to industry use, and 46,000 units for all of 2025, with industry revenue near $700 million. IDC counts over 49,000 units in H1 2026, up 92.5% year-on-year, and about 58,000 units in 2025, with a market size over $490 million. The 12,000 to 14,000 unit gap is more than half of Unitree's 23,000 quadruped sales in 2025. The gap comes from what each firm counts. Counterpoint includes sensors, scheduling software, and maintenance services in market size. IDC counts only hardware. Counterpoint also excludes small entry-level companion robots, while IDC covers consumer products. Unitree's average quadruped price in 2025 was RMB 30,300 (~$4.2K), so its revenue lead over Deep Robotics narrows to 4.6 percentage points. Deep Robotics sells its industrial Jueying X series for RMB 287,500 (~$39.7K) per unit. We'd argue the rankings say less about who is winning than about how fragmented the market still is. No player has a product that spans consumer, education, and industrial segments. Unitree's flip from shipment leader to narrow revenue leader shows price strategy, not volume, decides the top spot. The more interesting race is whether quadruped robots can lock in industrial inspection and security budgets before humanoid reliability and cost improve enough to compete for the same money. h/t @TMTPostGlobal
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The fuller version of this read is in the archive: - Unitree Can Build the Body, Can It Build the Mind? (Mar 2026) techbuzzchina.substack.com/p…
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In case you missed it, these were the four TBC posts that traveled most this week, and they mostly sit on the same side of the AI stack: what it costs to train, serve, and govern frontier models. 1. DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng is among 130+ authors on a paper describing DSec, the elastic compute sandbox behind the company's agent RL training. The platform serves about 3 million sandboxes per day, with peak concurrency above 380,000 and creation speeds over 5,000 per second. nitter.net/TechBuzzChina/status/2… 2. DeepSeek and Moonshot will join OpenAI and Anthropic in briefing the UN Security Council on AI risks on September 23, Reuters reports, with the leaders in New York for the UN General Assembly. DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng is not expected to attend, and plans could still change. nitter.net/TechBuzzChina/status/2… 3. Luo Fuli says Xiaomi's new model shows more innovation than DeepSeek's R1, and the training run cost RMB 23 million (~$3.2 million) over six days. No benchmarks or architecture details accompanied the claim. nitter.net/TechBuzzChina/status/2… 4. DeepSeek is training a new model of roughly 2 trillion parameters, and Liang Wenfeng told investors the next step is 8 trillion. That is five times the 1.6 trillion total and 49 billion activated parameters DeepSeek disclosed for V4-Pro in April. nitter.net/TechBuzzChina/status/2… DSec, the UN briefing, and the 8-trillion-parameter plan all point to the same shift: DeepSeek's efficiency story now includes the systems around the model alongside the model weights. The Xiaomi training-cost claim lands differently in that context, because the open question is whether those systems can keep larger scale economical.
DeepSeek is training a new model of roughly 2 trillion parameters, and Liang Wenfeng told investors the next step is 8 trillion. That is five times the 1.6T total and 49B activated parameters DeepSeek disclosed for V4-Pro in April. For a lab known for doing more with less, this is a real turn. When DeepSeek released V3 in late 2024, it put the training bill on the table: 671B total parameters, 37B activated per token, 2.788 million H800 GPU hours, and a stated cost of $5.576 million at $2 per GPU hour. That number, not parameter count, became its label. The constraint was structural: no abundant advanced GPU supply, and funding from Liang's own quant firm High-Flyer rather than outside investors. The constraint has loosened. DeepSeek closed its first external round in June, raising about $7.4 billion, and a second round of roughly RMB 50 billion (~$7.5 billion) at a valuation of about RMB 500 billion (~$69B) is in final negotiations. It has engaged CITIC Securities to prepare a STAR Market listing, and on September 21 Yan Wentao, formerly a partner at Gaorong Ventures, joined as CFO, filling a seat that had been empty for three years. Our read: the 8T plan is not a reversal of the efficiency thesis so much as its consequence. Under MoE, total parameters and per-token compute are separate numbers, so a bigger model does not mean a proportionally bigger bill. Kimi K3 carries 2.8T total parameters but activates 104B per token, about 3.7%; V4-Pro activates about 3%. Efficiency gains buy capacity rather than replace it, and agent workloads, which chain search, code, tools and sub-agents into long tasks, reward breadth of capability over peak benchmark scores.
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DeepSeek's revenue run rate hits $1 billion as new funding round nears DeepSeek's annualized revenue run rate has reached $1 billion, founder Liang Wenfeng told investors recently, up from under $500 million a few months ago. The jump follows price hikes on its flagship V4-Pro model in August and sustained demand, even as its lighter V4.1-Flash got cheaper. The company is also finalizing a new RMB 50 billion ($7 billion) round at a RMB 500 billion ($70 billion) valuation, targeting an October close, with a STAR Market IPO in parallel. That follows a June round of similar size at a RMB 400 billion (~$55.2B) valuation. Our read: the revenue acceleration is real, but the more telling number is that over 70% of compute still goes to training, not serving paying customers. DeepSeek is deliberately leaving inference capacity constrained while it chases a 2 trillion parameter model. The bet is that frontier capability, not API volume, is what justifies a $70 billion valuation. We're not convinced that math works if inference demand keeps growing faster than the chips to serve it. h/t @Chinazhidx
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Our Jun 2026 piece carries the background here: techbuzzchina.substack.com/p…
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Tencent kills QClaw, its OpenClaw clone Tencent will shut down AI assistant QClaw at midnight on December 24, 2026. Users can migrate data to WorkBuddy and get 1,000 points. The shutdown formalizes a consolidation that started in July, when QClaw's product center was folded into the cloud unit that runs WorkBuddy. QClaw launched in March during China's OpenClaw craze. CEO Pony Ma publicly backed the 'shrimp farming' push. But WorkBuddy pulled ahead: 20 million monthly visits in June, leading China's PC AI office agent market, per Analysys. QClaw's product lead left Tencent on June 29 after about 10 months. Our read: this ends Tencent's internal agent race, not its agent push. WorkBuddy won on distribution and enterprise fit. QClaw's consumer momentum faded as OpenClaw itself halved to 14.2 million visits in April. Tencent is consolidating behind the product that can actually monetize. $TCEHY
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DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng is among 130+ authors on a new paper detailing DSec, the elastic compute sandbox platform behind the company's agent RL training. DSec serves about 3 million sandboxes per day, with peak concurrency over 380,000 and creation speeds above 5,000 per second. One production unit runs roughly 160 CPU nodes, 30,000 cores, and 250TB of memory, hosting petabyte-scale images. A single training job can pull up 32,000 sandboxes at once. All RL training and evaluation from V3.2 through V4.1 ran on DSec. The paper is dated September 19. Our read: DeepSeek is showing the infrastructure moat behind its agent push, not just model weights. This is scale most labs won't replicate. h/t @WallStreetCN
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CATL's moat in EV batteries is under siege from BYD and emerging cell makers. The company defends share through scale and R&D, but rivals are closing the gap. Our read: the real test is whether CATL can keep pricing power as capacity floods the market.
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We have been building this argument across Powering Beyond the Cell: CATL's Trillion-Dollar Blueprint (Jun 2025) and our Jun 2026 note on this: techbuzzchina.substack.com/p…
CATL’s Q1 2026 net profit hit 207.38 billion RMB (~$28.6B), more than the combined net profit of seven major Chinese automakers, Chery, Geely, BYD, SAIC, Great Wall, Seres, and Changan, which totaled roughly 175 billion (~$24.1B). The revenue side is even starker: CATL’s Q1 top line of 1.29 trillion RMB (~$177.9B) exceeded the full-year 2025 revenue of Li Auto, NIO, and XPeng combined. The pattern extends beyond Q1. CATL’s full-year 2025 profit of 722 billion RMB (~$100.45B), up 42% year-on-year, already surpassed the combined profit of 13 A-share listed automakers. The battery maker paid out roughly 361 billion in cash dividends (~$50.2B), 50% of net profit, with founder Zeng Yuqun’s 22.45% stake alone yielding about 81 billion (~$11.27B). The Weibo trending topic “CATL profit exceeds 7 automakers combined” captures a real tension in China’s EV ecosystem. The profit pool concentrates at the battery cell layer, not at assembly or branding. Automakers compete on thinner margins while CATL captures the majority of industry profit through scale and cost control. Early signs suggest that may not be permanent. HIMA (Harmony Intelligent Mobility) is reportedly beginning to diversify battery suppliers beyond CATL. $300750.SZ ---
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Overseas demand to force China auto consolidation LatePost argues that 10 million incremental overseas vehicles will trigger a wave of consolidation in China's auto industry. Global EV demand growth becomes the catalyst reshaping domestic automaker competition and M&A. H/t @latepostnews
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LatePost: 10 million incremental overseas vehicles will open China's auto consolidation.
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