How do you know you're mid-cycle?
Same way you knew in 2020.
Last cycle top was the last time Bitcoin hit its upper log regression band right as the business cycle peaked. Not a coincidence.(2017=2021)
Then, as the business cycle reversed and descended toward its zero line, Bitcoin fell to its lower band. (2018=2022)
As the business cycle entered its green bottoming phase, Bitcoin lifted off to its mid-cycle peak, halfway between both bands. (2019=2025).
The business cycle continued its green trough and Bitcoin reversed from its mid-cycle peak back to its lower band. (2020=2026).
All this time, altcoins have consolidated in an ascending triangle, yet to break above last cycle's peak.
Now here we are. The parabolic phase trigger. The business cycle has broken above its zero line, ready to send Bitcoin back to its upper band, and altcoins out of their consolidation.
As I've discussed for nearly two years, "the cycle" is not some mystic 4-year-based religion. Its landmarks are not magically decided by a calendar. Calling a mid-band 2025 peak a cycle top and not 2019, simply because it took longer, ignores every piece of underlying data that has ever defined a cycle.
The business cycle drives the global risk heartbeat, the world in which Bitcoin and crypto live.
So far this one (2022-2026) has shown one major difference to the last (2018-2021) and every one before it...it's longer.
Welcome to the parabolic phase. One that will greatly confuse those that ignore its roots, and reward those that don't.