New details are emerging about Kalshi’s actions Its already been determined how the company inflates the number of users on its platform They’ve even figured out the formula, which surprised me a little I’m still waiting for answers and details from Kalshi, because inflating volume and user metrics isn’t exactly a good thing

The “no change” price on Polymarket fell to 30¢ following the Fed meeting Just over a week has passed since the US Federal Reserve’s last meeting and there are already some ideas about the next rate decision Why has the probability of a rate hike risen so sharply over the past 1.5 days? > Yesterday, member of the Federal Reserve Board Michael Barr stated that monetary policy should be tightened further > The decision itself was approved by all 12 members > Kevin Warsh pointed out that the Fed’s decisions carry more weight than political will With just over a month until the next meeting, let’s keep an eye on the news and data I still believe that buying “increase” options right now is a smart move for the reasons mentioned above Next week, the key focus will be on the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data What do you think about Michael Barr’s comments?

Really Cool Tool for Analyzing CT Creators on X Many people know about and have seen ctbubbles.com, a site for viewing data on many crypto influencers An update was recently released in the form of browser extension that shows in real time, an account’s growth over the past 24 hours/week/month, as well as other metrics such as views and engagement rate There are many other features as well, feel free to check out the extension and give it a try chromewebstore.google.com/de…

all of kalshi’s volume is inflated. parlays are 61% of their reported volume and it’s all fake yesterday they had $136M actually traded but they reported $1.91B $1 placed on a 14.1x parlay gets counted as $14.10 in volume 48% of their parlay volume are slips with 11+ legs (moonshots that never hit) i think they are doing this to fool investors

The Polymarket vs Kalshi War Continues I check my X feed from time to time and i’ve been seeing a lot of posts comparing the two most well-known prediction markets Its clear that there’s competition and each side is taking a different approach I decided to take a look for myself at what matters most, what traders are actually choosing, so i visited the crypto trading market on both platforms What struck me was that both platforms essentially have the same OI, but their trading volumes differ by more than 20 times (see the screenshot) Traders and their trading volumes are the most objective indicator, and they’re making their own choices What do you think about this rivalry?

Brief Analysis of the Clarity Act and How to Profit From It A week ago, the US Senate held a hearing to approve the Clarity Act, but the bill failed to secure the required 60 votes Currently on Polymarket the probability of the bill passing by 2026 stands at 6% and is expected to remain that way, here’s why: > Many industry experts say the bill will be broken down into parts and passed separately > The next hearing if it happens at all, will be during the next session and of course, with a different composition of senators, which means there’s very little time left > Even some Republicans voted against the bill > After the election, the composition of the Senate is expected to change and there is a very high probability that it will shift toward a larger number of Democratic senators, who in turn voted unanimously “against” But recently, a new and very fundamental development has emerged: This is the new development in crypto derivatives being promoted by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) They have established a new division focused on cryptocurrency and have already sent a letter to the White House This radically changes the situation, a priori not in favor of the “possible passage of the Clarity Act” Based on all of the above, we can conclude that buy “no” on the passage of the Clarity Act is a very sound decision, as the price will definitely fall every week What are your thoughts on the text above?

How we will make money from the US elections Polymarket has launched a separate branch for the midterm elections So far the Democratic Party is ahead in terms of the probability of victory, but the news will have a very significant impact on the value of the options Let's see how the Republicans will respond Which party do you think will win the election?

Polymarket has hired Zora’s former CEO The company is heading in an interesting direction, they recently launched the public version of Perps and now they’ve brought on Jacob Horne to “make Polymarket DeFi great again” Poly ecosystem is evolving in interesting ways, which has already had an impact in the form of an increase in the number of users in the US and app downloads on the App Store Who else do you think they might poach from among the well known figures in the industry?

Polymarket was the most downloaded app for sports in week 1. Looking forward to week 2.

Thrilled to announce Collin McKinney Hill has joined Polymarket as our new VP of Operations. He's coming from DoorDash where he was a GM and ran one of their largest business units. DoorDash is known as one of the most operationally excellent businesses, and that's the rigor Collin's bringing to Polymarket. Before that, he was at Bridgewater where he was Ray Dalio's Chief of Staff. He's also 6'7. And handsome. Some guys just have it all. Onwards.

Polymarket's US business hit all-time highs in every metric this weekend, and became the #3 app in America. Polymarket US only launched publicly on May 12. Tech is now ready for scale. And scale we shall.

The Fed raised the rate by 0.25 bps Rate was raised from 3.75% to 4%, the market on Polymarket turned out to be completely right I’ll share my further thoughts on the results in a separate post later For now its immediately clear how the market reacted: gold fell 1.3% and the DXY rose 0.3% What are your preliminary expectations for the next Fed meeting?

Polymarket Has Surpassed Kalshi in Popularity on the App Store The Poly platform has climbed to third place in terms of downloads on iOS and has also taken the top spot in the Finance category in the U.S. market It remains to be seen whether it will manage to surpass ChatGPT in terms of user numbers or not :)

Market is losing faith that the Clarity Act will be passed this year The probability of the Clarity Act being passed on Polymarket fell by 16% today, all ahead of today’s US Senate hearing on the bill Why traders are losing faith in its passage en masse: > Passing the bill will likely take several stages and there are only 3.5 months left until the end of the year > Anticipation of the elections and a certain turnover of senators after the elections > A fierce battle of opinions between the Democratic and Republican parties The hearing itself will take place at 1:15 p.m. EST What do you think the outcome of the first debate on the bill will be?

Just a couple months out of beta, Polymarket is already at 43.8% of Kalshi’s football volume despite being live since just this summer. That’s including all the brokerage flow routed to Kalshi through Robinhood, Coinbase, PrizePicks, etc.

Now can trade on Polymarket with your friends This is a great feature from the platform’s perspective, since even traditional trading usually involves collaborating with other traders For some this will just be a fun feature, while for others it will be a step toward institutional trading

Traders have already decided on their trade regarding the FRS rate CPI data was released: - m/m: 0.4% (prev: 0.1%) - y/y: 3.4% (prev: 3.4%) - m/m Core CPI: 0.3% (prev: 0.2%) The data itself came in very close to the forecast, which offers some hope that it is already priced in Currently on Polymarket, “no change” is priced at 20 cents and “increase” at 80 cents So what exactly is troubling me? > The inflow of institutional funds into crypto ETFs on Friday > Trump administration’s strong opposition to this > A 25 basis point rate hike will have absolutely no impact on the overall economic situation The situation is very ambiguous, the meeting itself will be on wednesday and it will be interesting to analyze the decision made by the board of directors What are your thoughts on the current probability prices?

The Polymarket team has begun issuing compensation due to the CLOB outage More than 3,000 wallets have already received their payments This is a good move on the platform’s part, as traders are its main asset and losing them is very risky because competition among prediction markets is constantly growing

Still looking for people to join my squad… Trade and chat with your friends live on @Polymarket Squads.

Russian Central Bank left the interest rate unchanged The probability of “no change” on Polymarket was just under 70%, but it played out although it was unclear right up until the end what decision the board of directors would make Now it will be interesting to see the clash between political will from above and the central bank’s leadership, in other words the same situation as in the US What’s next for the Bank of Russia’s interest rate market? > We’ve seen poor inflation data alongside positive figures for the budget deficit and current oil prices, the situation remains uncertain for now Probabilities for the next meeting are currently roughly equal between “no change” and a cut, so for now, we can only assess the upcoming trade What are your thoughts on the future trajectory of the key rate?