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france are opening a whole new chapter.
zidane’s first game as france manager.
and he gets turkey away. yeah, no pressure whatsoever.
@Polymarket has france around 72¢, with france -1.5 at 53¢ and over 3.5 goals at 53¢. france are also 95¢ to score at least once. the match has already pulled roughly $744k in volume.
the interesting part for me is the new-manager factor.
zidane is taking over after france finished fourth at the world cup, while turkey are making their first appearance in nations league league a. turkey are also missing hakan çalhanoğlu and kenan yıldız, which takes a couple of important creators out of montella’s attack.
mbappé should start too after recovering from the flu-like symptoms that kept him out of training earlier this week.
so i’m not overthinking this one.
my angle: france -1.5 + over 3.5
mbappé to score
score: turkey 1-3 france
zidane’s first game.
mbappé leading the line.
turkey trying to survive.
the international break is here.
and apparently the first thing we’re doing is throwing xavi vs klopp into the deep end.
netherlands are starting a completely new era with xavi, germany are doing the same with klopp. neither manager has actually had much time with these squads, so i’m not touching the straight winner market too aggressively.
polymarket has this basically priced as a coin flip between the two.
what i like more is the chaos.
new systems. new instructions. new managers trying to make an impression.
and xavi has already said he wants this netherlands side playing with intensity and taking the initiative.
my angle: btts + over 2.5
score: netherlands 2-2 germany
xavi vs klopp in their first international games.
yeah… this could either be beautiful football or 90 minutes of tactical experimentation.
probably both
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sometimes the most interesting part of a Polymarket market isn’t the outcome
it’s watching how the price gets there
a headline drops, someone starts buying, the price moves 5-10¢
then CT starts debating why it moved
you could see this with the Ballon d’Or market too
Lamine’s price has moved around quite a bit as the narrative shifted
and suddenly people aren’t just reacting to the news
they’re reacting to the price reacting to the news
that feedback loop is what makes prediction markets so fun to watch
sometimes the move is the signal
sometimes you’re just watching everyone chase it
prediction markets will humble you real quick
you can be 100% convinced something is happening
but if everyone else already thinks the same thing, you might just be late
that’s the part people miss on Polymarket
the question isn’t only “am i right?”
it’s “am i early enough for this price to make sense?”
because buying something at 90¢ just because you’re confident it happens isn’t the same as finding it at 45¢
both can end up being right
but the trade is completely different
being right is cool
being right at the right price is the actual game
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RJW1 has been putting some serious size into football lately.
currently sitting on a $31k position in Netherlands vs Germany.
but the interesting part is the history.
he’s been jumping between Man United, Liverpool, Newcastle, Spain, France, Netherlands and a bunch of totals/spreads.
so this isn’t just one big position.
there’s a pretty clear pattern in how he trades football markets.
big positions, early prices, then letting the market do the work.
gonna keep watching this wallet.
this trader has a thing for saying NO when @Polymarket gets too comfortable.
meet Nik-.
joined in june 2024.
$12.1M volume
2,398 predictions
+$21.7K PnL
and his current positions make the strategy pretty obvious.
$14.7K Messi NO at 96.3¢
$10.5K Kvaratskhelia NO at 98.1¢
$5.2K Bitcoin ATH NO at 94.8¢
$3K Mbappé NO at 89.5¢
$2.7K Fabian Ruiz NO at 99.2¢
he’s also holding Man United NO at 96.7¢.
the pattern i’m seeing?
he keeps buying the side where the market is already extremely confident.
not looking for the 10x.
he’s looking for the few cents of uncertainty everyone else is ignoring.
boring until one of those “almost certain” outcomes isn’t
his profile : polymarket.com/profile/0x9e8…
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what if you could see the smartest traders on polymarket and just copy them?
that’s the part of @arespro that caught my attention.
you can find traders, see what they’re holding, check their track record and copy their trades.
so instead of scrolling past someone saying “this is mispriced”
you can actually see the position behind the take.
then there’s trader analytics, whale tracking, ai market intel, news alerts and support for polymarket + kalshi.
prediction markets already have the traders.
the missing piece was finding them.
ares is building around that.
prediction markets are moving beyond politics and sports.
@omnibook_xyz is taking that idea directly into financial markets.
instead of predicting whether an event happens, you’re trading short-term outcomes on assets like BTC, stocks, FX, commodities and rates.
think of it like a prediction market built for traders.
BTC is at $100k
you can take a position on whether it’ll be above or below a specific price at expiry
no need to own BTC
no traditional leverage
your maximum loss is defined upfront
what makes the idea interesting is the speed
trade the outcome, wait for the expiry, settle, then move on to the next market.
almost like prediction markets meeting a 24/7 trading terminal.
and with @omnibook_xyz building around financial markets specifically, i’m interested to see how far this model can go.
the prediction market format doesn’t have to be just:
“who wins?”
it can also be:
where does the price end up?
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SeyiSOL
to all my haters
i’m clothed , y’all have seen enough of my nakedness😂
is it just me , buh i couldn’t do any replies when my blue tick went down , it wasn’t going through and going into draft
just wanna know
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the international break is here.
and apparently the first thing we’re doing is throwing xavi vs klopp into the deep end.
netherlands are starting a completely new era with xavi, germany are doing the same with klopp. neither manager has actually had much time with these squads, so i’m not touching the straight winner market too aggressively.
polymarket has this basically priced as a coin flip between the two.
what i like more is the chaos.
new systems. new instructions. new managers trying to make an impression.
and xavi has already said he wants this netherlands side playing with intensity and taking the initiative.
my angle: btts + over 2.5
score: netherlands 2-2 germany
xavi vs klopp in their first international games.
yeah… this could either be beautiful football or 90 minutes of tactical experimentation.
probably both
fulham vs man united is today at craven cottage. @Polymarket currently has united around 49¢, fulham 28¢, draw 26¢. the match has about $40k volume right now.
the interesting part is the goals.
united have scored 7 and conceded 7 in their first four league games, while fulham have also conceded 7. united are creating plenty too, with 84 shots buh they’re yet to keep a league clean sheet
and fulham aren’t exactly giving me “sit back and defend for 90 minutes” either. they’ve already had two 3-2 defeats at home this season, while last season’s meeting at this ground finished 1-1.
so i’m not really interested in forcing the united ML at 49¢ , buh it’s something that could happen if you’re willing to risk it
the better angle for me is goals.
united should create enough to score, but their defensive record makes a clean sheet hard to trust. fulham can definitely get one themselves.
my read: over 2.5 goals + btts
scoreline: fulham 1-2 man united
united win is there, but i’d rather let the goals do some of the work.
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international break got me back on @PressX_Global
here are a few predictions i’m taking on the games today
testing some reads, trusting the football knowledge and seeing what the $10k balance can do.
let’s cook.
here’s what i’m cooking on @PressX_Global today
a few football reads i’m feeling good about.
$10k virtual balance, real markets, no money on the line.
still somehow feels personal when a pick goes against you 😂
let’s see how we finish today
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Tenax ♤ retweeted
I don’t know what i did for twitter this is my 3rd time getting my ass suspended… not giving up though 😭🔥🔥🚀
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