USDA rated 17% of U.S. pasture and range good to excellent in the week to September 20. A year ago it was 34%. It rated 53% poor or very poor, up from 51% a week earlier and 36% a year ago. Topsoil got a little help. USDA rates 47% short or very short, down from 51% the week before. Farmers have planted 17% of the winter wheat crop, behind the 21% average. Watch for the possibility that dry topsoil could slow emergence, which sits at 2% against a 4% average. hubs.li/Q04y70Wp0

Farmers harvested 12% of U.S. soybeans by September 20, per USDA. The five-year average for the date is 8%. USDA says 62% of the crop is dropping leaves, against a 58% average. It rated 58% good to excellent, unchanged on the week and down from 61% a year ago. NASS counted fewer pods than last year in 8 of 11 states this month. Watch for the possibility that early harvest yields could confirm those counts and USDA trims its 52.8 bushel yield in October. hubs.li/Q04y70M90

Farmers harvested 13% of the U.S. corn crop by September 20, per USDA. That's ahead of 10% last year and the 11% five-year average. USDA rated 57% of the crop good to excellent, unchanged on the week. A year ago it was 66%. Iowa rates 76%. Illinois sits at 57% and Nebraska at 52%. USDA forecasts a yield of 178.5 bushels an acre. Watch for the possibility that USDA could cut it again in its October crop report if early yields come in below that. hubs.li/Q04y70Vx0

Money managers sold 8,547 Chicago wheat contracts in the week to September 15. That put them back to a net short of 3,674. They've sold two weeks running, from a net long of 14,904 on September 1. They were net short in 48 of the last 52 weeks. USDA tied its higher wheat price forecast to corn. U.S. wheat supplies didn't change in the September WASDE. If money managers start selling corn, wheat could lose that support. Watch for the possibility that the Chicago short grows in Friday's report. See here: hubs.li/Q04y70M30

Money managers cut their ICE sugar net long by 13,254 contracts in the week to September 15. That ended six straight weeks of buying. It was their biggest weekly sale since July 28. They're still net long 225,430 contracts. They were net short in 46 of the last 52 weeks. Since August 4 they've bought a net 312,618 contracts. A long built that fast could unwind just as fast. Watch for the possibility that Friday's report shows a second week of selling. See here: hubs.li/Q04y70M00

Money managers added 1 contract to their corn net long in the week to September 15. That makes 414,460 contracts, a record by a single contract. Under the surface they sold 7,296 long contracts and bought back 7,297 shorts. In soybeans they sold 15,757 contracts, to 241,501. It was their first sale in five weeks and the biggest since August 11. The buying stalled after the September 11 WASDE cut the corn crop. Watch for the possibility that Friday's report, with positions as of September 22, could show money managers cutting the corn long. See here: hubs.li/Q04y70VQ0

USDA left the U.S. wheat balance sheet unchanged. Ending stocks stay at 717 million bushels, or 38.3% of use. A year ago the ratio was 45.0%. USDA still raised its wheat price forecast 20 cents to $6.40 and named higher corn prices as a reason. World stocks went the other way, up 3 million tons, with larger stocks in Russia, Australia and Ukraine. Money managers sold 10,031 Chicago wheat contracts in the week to September 8. They are net long 4,873 after 48 short weeks out of the last 52. USDA tied the higher wheat price to higher corn prices. Wheat supplies did not change. If corn falls, wheat may follow. Watch for the possibility that money managers go back to net short in Chicago wheat. See here: hubs.li/Q04xpDhf0

USDA cut its U.S. sugar production forecast by 111,000 tons to 8.84 million. Florida cane and Mexican imports both fell. Stocks-to-use dropped to 13.5% from 14.8% in August. Money managers bought sugar for a sixth straight week. Their net long is 238,684 contracts, a 52-week high. They were net short in 47 of the last 52 weeks. The buying slowed to 4,913 contracts this week, so the move from short to long may be mostly done. See here: hubs.li/Q04xptK00

Money managers hold a record net long in corn futures: 414,459 contracts as of September 8. The old record was 409,444, set in March 2011. They hold a record in soybeans too: 257,258 contracts, past the 240,937 set in May 2012. Both positions grew for a fourth straight week. They built those positions before the September 11 WASDE. A position this large suggests the supply-side changes could already be priced in. Watch for the possibility that this Friday's report shows money managers selling into last week's WASDE. See here: hubs.li/Q04xpDhc0

USDA raised the soybean crop to a record 4.535 billion bushels. It also raised exports 25 million bushels and kept crush at a record 2.78 billion. Ending stocks fell to 310 million bushels. That is 6.8% of use, down from 7.0% in August. The same day, NASS reported lower pod counts than last year in 8 of 11 states. A record crop with fewer pods could still shrink. Watch for the possibility that the October survey trims the yield. hubs.li/Q04xptKD0

USDA projects corn stocks-to-use at 9.7% for 2026/27. Soybeans are at 6.8% and wheat at 38.3%. All three are lower than a year ago. Corn was 11.5%, soybeans 7.6% and wheat 45.0%. USDA raised its price forecast on all three crops: corn to $4.80, soybeans to $12.00, wheat to $6.40. World stocks are much looser: 20.6% for corn and 33.4% for wheat. Foreign buyers have other sellers, so tight U.S. supplies may not lift prices much on their own. Watch for the possibility that U.S. export sales matter more for price this fall than U.S. stocks. hubs.li/Q04xptKz0

USDA cut its corn yield forecast to 178.5 bushels an acre on Friday. That took 213 million bushels off the crop, to 15.8 billion. USDA also cut feed use by 150 million bushels. So ending stocks only fell 86 million, to 1.567 billion. Stocks-to-use is now 9.7%. The September 30 Grain Stocks report counts how much old-crop corn is actually left. The Sept. WASDE assumes 1.922 billion bushels. If the count comes in lower, new-crop ending stocks could fall by the same amount. Watch for the possibility that it does. hubs.li/Q04xptG-0

USDA’s September WASDE puts 2026/27 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1,567 million bushels. That’s 86 mb under August’s 1,653, and 56 mb above the Bloomberg survey average of 1,511. Soybeans print 310 vs the survey’s 291 (August 320). Wheat holds 717, in line with 718.

WASDE Day: Bloomberg’s WASDE survey for noon ET puts 2026/27 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1,511 million bushels, 142 mb under USDA’s August print of 1,653. Soybeans cut to 291 mb from 320. Wheat is flat at 718 vs 717. Cotton trims to 3.79 million bales from 4.00. ---- We'll be watching corn yield closely...the survey avg 178.1 bu/ac vs August’s 180.7. That's still well above the ProFarmer Crop Tour estimate of 173.2. A lower than expected yields projection from the USDA could push the ending stocks number toward the 1,359 mb low analyst guess.

This is now getting absurdly serious with the El Niño. The latest OSTIA SST data now has a peak anomaly of 8.1C above normal, with Peru reporting a peak SSTA of 9.5C. What's more concerning is that these anomalies are only going to increase over the next 10+ days, as the latest ECMWF forecast is predicting a peak of 12.5C right off the coast of Peru. As I said earlier, this is setting up to be the most impactful El Niño since record-keeping began in 1950. Also can't wait for the new C3S model ensemble to come out by around September 10th, as I'm sure the wet signal across the west & south will be bonkers.

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