$AMZN’s strongest calendar-month pattern has been July: a 6.94% average return with gains in 80% of times since 2006. April averaged 8.39%, but July’s hit rate is higher. #AMZN #TheEdgeResearch

We applied TheEdgeScore analysis and concluded that the steep drop in $META on August 20 reflected a pure market reaction, as Meta’s business fundamentals and fortress balance sheets remain robust. We also noted that this score suggested a 70% probability, based on historical data, that Meta’s share prices would climb. Since then, Meta stock has risen from $543 to $740. #TheEdgeResearch #META #FundamentalAnalysis

Speaking at the ITS Australia Global Summit 2026 in Melbourne this week - 700+ transport specialists from around the world, 200+ talks, three days at MCEC. My session, Wednesday 2:45pm: why you wait 20 minutes for a tram and then three arrive at once - and how AI can stop it. #ITSGlobalSummit2026

Does the Fed lead or follow? Historical data shows the Fed Funds rate chasing CPI inflation, not the other way around. Inflation moves first – policy reacts. #MacroEconomics #Inflation #FederalReserve

30Y #Mortgage rates have risen to nearly 7% following the Federal Reserve’s rate increase – the highest level in nearly two years. A key consideration is the spread between the federal funds rate and mortgage rates. Although many assume this spread is constant, it fluctuates across rate cycles, often benefiting mortgage lenders, institutions, and banks. For additional analysis, follow @TheEdgeStock.

The stock market rarely follows a straight line, and not every stock must rise for a net positive return. With a well-diversified and holdings in companies with predictable earnings, your portfolio will grow over time. #TheEdgeResearch #StockMarket #Investing

Two days ago, we applied TheEdgeTechnical framework, which suggested a 72% chance that $NVDA would rise over the next 21 trading days. By reviewing more than 36 indicators across five categories with TheEdgeTechnical, we formed a bullish view: we financed a call option at a $210 strike expiring in November by selling a put option at $210 expiring October 16th. Because the thesis worked in our favor, we closed with a 60% gain within two days. See #TheEdgeResearch for stock investment and trading, as well as option trading.

For the first time in over 36 years, $MSFT’s capital expenditures per revenue exceed both research and development and selling, general, and administrative costs. Microsoft is investing aggressively in infrastructure beyond its operating expenses. Whether this is a one-time outlay yielding greater returns or a drain on cash remains open; AI integration into Azure and MSFT 365 suites may address automation over the next 5–10 years. #TheEdgeResearch #MSFT #FedRate

Macro Policy Stance and Fed Funds vs. CPI Real policy rates remain firmly restrictive: as of August 2026, the Effective Federal Funds Rate sits at 3.63%, maintaining a positive spread over headline CPI inflation at 3.30% (July 2026). While the policy rate has retreated from its cycle peak near the 5.3% threshold, the overnight rate continues to trade above annual consumer price growth – a stark reversal from the deeply negative real-rate regime that characterised 2021–2022. Does Fed increase the rate today? #TheEdgeResearch #Macro #FederalReserve #CPI

Microsoft $MSFT converted earnings into operating cash flow at 1.37x in the latest TTM period - evidence that reported profitability is backed by cash generation rather than accruals. But the more nuanced finding is that revenue and EPS have compounded faster than free cash flow. Three-year revenue CAGR is 16.1% and EPS CAGR is 22.8%, versus just 4.0% for FCF. Elevated capex is a central reason the cash-flow profile deserves more scrutiny as infrastructure investment rises. FCF after stock-based compensation still equates to a solid 16.4% of revenue, but the gap between earnings growth and FCF growth is the key efficiency variable to monitor. #TheEdgeResearch

Microsoft’s $MSFT rate sensitivity looks more like a valuation question than a borrowing-capacity question. At a 5.00% 10-year Treasury yield, highly levered companies face a more demanding refinancing backdrop. MSFT enters that environment with annual net debt/EBITDA of just 0.27x and interest coverage of 50.9x. Its balance sheet is not debt-free, but debt service is small relative to operating earnings. That is why we have a bullish thesis about MSFT that makes one of our largest holdings across the portfolios ~12.1%.

The S&P 500 $SPX’s monthly calendar shows that average seasonality can mask substantial regime risk: March 2020 fell 12.5%, then April gained 12.7%. More recently, April 2026 rose 10.4% after a 5.1% March decline. Calendar patterns describe the pattern; they do not make any single month predictable. #TheEdgeResearch #SP500 #MarketData

November was the S&P 500’s strongest calendar month in this 10-year, averaging +4.15% with a 90% positive-month rate – matched only by May and July on hit rate. September was the weakest, averaging -1.47%, although 56% of Septembers still finished higher. #TheEdgeResearch #SP500 #Seasonality

Wednesday produced the strongest average daily S&P 500 return over the past decade: +0.09%, with 56% of sessions positive. Monday was nearly as strong at +0.08% and had the highest hit rate at 59%, versus 54.7% across all daily sessions. Thursday was essentially flat. #TheEdgeResearch #SP500 #MarketResearch

$AMZN is pulling back – not breaking down. Amazon is still 4.3% above its 200-day average, even after falling 3.0% below its 20-day average. That combination points to short-term pressure within a stronger long-term trend – but the technical reading remains low conviction. #AmazonStock #TechnicalAnalysis #TheEdgeResearch

The recession that never was. The 2022 inflation shock looked like the beginning of something much worse. It wasn’t. US CPI surged toward 9%, while unemployment remained remarkably resilient around 3–4%. Now inflation has fallen dramatically from its peak, while unemployment remains near historically low levels. That combination is unusual: Disinflation without a major labour-market collapse. The market implication is important: the Fed has been fighting inflation without triggering the deep recession many investors feared. But the next question is harder: Can inflation continue falling without unemployment rising? That is the macro trade investors should be watching now. #Inflation #Fed #Economy #Markets #Investing

Is $NVDA getting ready for its next move? 📈 Historically, TheEdgeTechnical score of 55/100 is followed by higher prices 72% of the time over the next 21 trading days. Right now, we are seeing solid consolidation with positive momentum, confirmed volume accumulation, and a constructive statistical structure. The only real lag? Its relative performance against the semiconductor sector ($SMH). Keep an eye on this one! 👀 #TheEdgeResearch #TechnicalAnalysis #DayTrading

The market’s paradox: record highs, but volatility is not confirming euphoria. $SPX has compounded through wars, inflation shocks, recessions and a pandemic – yet today’s market is not displaying the volatility normally associated with extreme exuberance. From 1991 to 2026, the S&P 500 rose from $417 to $7,600 (+1,722%), while trailing realised volatility currently sits below 15%. The more interesting signal: price and volatility haven’t essentially had a strong correlation. Markets can keep climbing while volatility stays remarkably contained. #SP500 #Markets #Investing #TheEdgeResearch

Microsoft’s $MSFT massive $175 billion CapEx is fueling an AI and cloud expansion that is already paying off, with Azure crossing $100 billion in annual revenue on 43% growth. While this heavy spending has temporarily pressured free cash flow, the company still generated $67 billion in trailing FCF. Trading at ~21 times forward earnings – below its five-year historical average – Microsoft presents a compelling valuation given its accelerating 18% revenue growth and massive $678 billion commercial backlog. #TheEdgeResearch #Valuation