Markets, macro and geopolitics, plus Texas BBQ 🍖

Texas, USA
Robinhood now earns more from prediction bets than crypto. EPS 51 cents vs 56 expected. > Event contracts $173M, up 6x > Crypto $120M, down 55% $HOOD down about 7% after hours as of 6:39 PM CT. Can bets replace crypto?
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Consumers got less gloomy today. Confidence jumped to 91.7 in October. The forecast was 81. Cheaper gas did most of the work. What to watch: Fed decision Wed 1 PM CT. Why: A firmer consumer argues for rate patience.
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$BA is down nearly 10% on the 737, not the loss. Boeing will miss 500 deliveries this year as 47 a month slips to early 2027. 2027 free cash flow is seen at $3B vs $5.6B expected. What to watch: the Q4 737 rate. Why: deliveries drive cash flow.
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The Houthis say they hit Saudi Arabia's biggest refinery. Bloomberg reports a fire near the Ras Tanura terminal was contained. Riyadh has not confirmed the strike. Ras Tanura refines 550,000 barrels a day. What to watch: an Aramco statement. Why: confirmation reprices oil.
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$GLW beat and guided above Street, up 3% premarket. Core EPS $0.91 vs $0.88 expected, sales $5.08B vs $5.02B. Q4 EPS guide $0.96 to $1.00 vs $0.93. Our read: AI fiber is the engine, Optical sales up 44%. What to watch: Q4 sales $5.2B to $5.3B. Why: AI demand must hold.
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What moves markets today: > $KO raises outlook, EPS 91 cents vs 88. > Consumer confidence at 9 AM CT. > $META plans up to $97.5B in stock, $NVDA buys $3B. > $SOFI: record $1.4B revenue, up 44%. What to watch: Fed decision Wed 1 PM CT. Why: Traders see 81% odds of a December hike.
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Interesting comments from $VZ in response to $SPCX plans carve out market share in the mobile phone plan space.
Verizon's CEO said today that SpaceX will need at least 4-6 years and $300B-$500B to fully build out its @Starlink Mobile U.S. carrier network: "Their service just can't compete with a terrestrial network. In suburban and urban areas, where 98% of our revenues are, we're somewhere between 100x–1,000x more efficient than they are. We know exactly what they're going to do. We know who they're talking to on towers. There's no magic wand. There's no secret sauce. There's no shortcut. They're going to look at 65,000–80,000 macro sites. They're going to need backhaul, RAN, and a tremendous amount of spectrum. It's going to take a minimum of four to six years to fully build that out. It's going to cost hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars, I assume somewhere between $300 billion and $500 billion. Then they need to build retail, customer service, back office systems, et cetera. All of that gets them basically the same network and same capabilities and same cost structure as what we have today. Then sometime over the next four to six years, they have the possibility of becoming the sixth, not the fourth, the sixth competitor in the market. You can be sure over these next three to five years or six years, we are not going to be standing still. Four to five years from now, we will be two to three generations better than where we are today. We will have high-speed broadband gig-plus coverage across the country with our millimeter wave. We are ahead of most people and already experimenting with what 6G applications will look like." (via Verizon's Q3 earnings call earlier this morning)
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Brazil erased its whole election rally in one day. Lula won the runoff and the Ibovespa fell 13.9%, its worst day since 2020. The real lost 8.1%. > $XP down 48.4% > $BBD down 28% > $EWZ down 19.8% > $NU down 17% What to watch: Bolsonaro's challenge Why: fiscal risk is back
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Israel votes tomorrow and Iran is the ballot. Eisenkot called Netanyahu "delusional," saying Iran never had nukes. Brent settled at $115.81 today. The winner holds Israel's Iran trigger. What to watch: Tuesday's exit polls. Why: they reset oil's Iran risk premium.
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$JBLU missed and the stock still jumped 7%. Adjusted loss of 60 cents a share vs 55 cents expected. Revenue narrowly missed. But JetBlue sees Q4 margins expanding even with fuel up about 85% from a year ago. What to watch: Q4 fuel costs. Why: the guide only holds if oil cooperates.
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$VZ nearly doubled the subscriber estimate. 406K new postpaid phones vs 209K expected. Revenue missed at $34.3B only because fewer people upgraded phones. Service revenue grew 2.9%.
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Books that were banned from my wife’s classroom in Texas.
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Oil fell 2%. The risk didn't. Brent slid to about $114.6 as Qatari mediators met in Tehran. Houthis claim hits on Saudi East West pipeline pumps. Riyadh hasn't confirmed. What to watch: Saudi damage reports, a hit erases the drop.
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The Engulfing Guy 🌊 retweeted
Jahmyr Gibbs twisted awkwardly while going down to bleed clock. Was only slightly limping on the sidelines so it’s probably nothing, but don’t always love how that looks on the ankle or knee. Should’ve just gone in for the TD. Less risky.
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Nat gas leads the Sunday open, down 4.96% to 2.509 as of 5:11 PM CT. Brent is off 1.22% at 115.30 even after fresh Houthi missiles at Saudi Arabia. NQ up 0.51%, ES up 0.36%.
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Gold just fell below $4,000 for the first time since mid July. Spot hit $3,986.50 Friday before bouncing to about $4,030, down 3.2% on the week. $116 Brent is feeding inflation fears, and traders now price an 83% chance of a December Fed hike. A soft PCE Thursday flips it.
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Bitcoin fell to $79,146 Saturday, its lowest in over a month, before reclaiming $80,000. Over $810 million in positions were liquidated in 24 hours. With Brent above $117 and the Fed Wednesday, a hawkish tone tests that floor; a softer one opens a rebound.
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