NFL Week 2 Play #1 (9/20) π
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Rashee Rice O 4.5 Receptions (Score -135)
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Riceβs Week 1 box score looks disappointing on the surface, but the underlying usage still points to a strong rebound spot here. He played 83% of Kansas Cityβs offensive snaps and was on the field for 90.9% of the Chiefsβ dropbacks, so his role was still very much intact even though he finished with only 2 catches.
The Chiefs had very little reason to force the passing game, rushing for 220 yards while Mahomes attempted only 27 passes, which helps explain the quiet opener as he was also shadowed by Patrick Surtain. Rice has practiced in full all week and carries no game designation, so thereβs no concern about his knee limiting him here.
Last season, Rice posted a 30.8% targets per route run rate which ranked in the 97th percentile, along with a 26.5% target share in the 93rd percentile. He also averaged 31.3 routes per game and posted a 68% catch rate. When Rice is playing real snaps, the volume follows, in his last 12 games with 40%+ snap participation, heβs had 5+ receptions in 9/12 avg 6.6 receptions and 9.1 targets per game.
In 2025, Rice saw 41% of his targets come in the short area, which gives him a clean path to five catches without needing repeated deep completions. The Colts allowed the fourth most short area receptions, and allowed 397 completions last season, the 3rd most in the NFL.
The Colts in week one were vulnerable in the middle of the field, which is where Kansas City should want to feature Rice. Lou Anarumoβs defense played 46.9% man coverage, the highest rate in the league, and Baltimore immediately found success attacking them inside. Zay Flowers caught 5 passes for 150 yards and a TD despite Baltimore attempting only 25 passes, and the Colts specifically acknowledged that Justin Walley gave up several chunk plays in coverage.
That is relevant because Rice had a big game against this same defense last season, catching 8 passes on 12 targets for 141 yards, with 5 catches for 116 yards coming from the slot. His slot rate was 41.4% in that game, which is worth noting because more slot usage would make this matchup even cleaner.
The line being 4.5 receptions gives us room to work with. Rice does not need 10+ catches or another monster workload to clear it. If his target share bounces back closer to where it sat for most of last season, five catches is very attainable as this line was normally set at 5.5/6.5.
We get a great number for Rice due to a quiet Week 1. The playing time remained strong, the route participation remained strong, his historical target-earning profile is elite, and Indianapolis is a defense that can be attacked through short and intermediate completions. We like the over for Rice on Sunday night!