This chart is becoming increasingly uncomfortable.
War begins → yields rise.
Peace rumors → yields fall.
Oil eases → yields fall.
Then something changes.
Yields start climbing anyway.
That’s the part people should be watching.
Because at some point this stops being only an oil story…
…and starts looking like a Treasury market story.
The average interest rate on a 30Y mortgage is up to 7.45%, its highest level in 3 years.
This officially pushes the payment on a $500,000 mortgage to $3,479/month.
By comparison, the same mortgage came with a payment of $2,995/month just 7 months ago.
That's an additional $5,813/year in mortgage interest expense for homebuyers.
Mortgage rates are now up +150 basis points since late-February.