A prediction market saying a life-saving treatment has only a 6% chance of FDA approval doesn’t just move money. Some clinical trial participants will inevitably question whether staying enrolled is worth it after seeing odds like that. ‘Markets’ shouldn’t undermine the very research they’re supposedly predicting. Sign the petition in link. change.org/p/ban-prediction-…

No one sets out to destroy themselves, or society. They just get there with reasonable iterative steps along their incentive surface. Enron, Jerome Kerviel, TikTok, SBF, Kalshi, Anthro. You can probably add Purdue Pharma, 737MAX, electoral college politics, publish-or-perish.

its actually disgusting how there will be a Bet365 watermark over this video till the end of time

It is embarrassing that Polymarket, the "global truth machine", posts verifiably false information on a near daily basis. @shayne_coplan - come get your intern.

The 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that Ohio and Tennessee can regulate @Kalshi sports-related event contracts under their gambling laws. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine issued this state: “I am pleased that the U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals has upheld the legality of Ohio and Tennessee’s efforts to assert our states’ gambling laws jurisdiction over Kalshi for sports betting products." opn.ca6.uscourts.gov/opinion… @axios

I keep coming back to this article. It explains why prediction markets became dystopian sports gambling websites despite being pretty good truth engines for elections and wars. Easily the best essay of the year on this topic.

surprising me to see big accounts become shills and sell out their audiences for relatively small amounts of money — $5k, $10k, and such. $5 million, I can understand, but becoming a shill for a crypto or gambling company for $5k is crazy to me.

6th Circuit observes that if Kalshi's definition of a swap holds, then *every time* you place a bet outside the contact of a DCM, you are committing a crime. "Kalshi’s proposed 'interpretation of the statute would' also 'attach criminal penalties to a breathtaking amount of commonplace [gambling] activity.' ... as the States note, 'if sports bets are swaps, they must take place on federal markets.' ... That would include 'every sports wager placed in a casino, on an online sports book, or between two friends at a bar.' And it would also include 'sports wagers ostensibly permitted by PASPA.' Indeed, Kalshi’s overbroad swap definition would likely cover all sorts of commonplace gambling activity that does not currently occur on federally regulated exchanges. It 'would likely encompass virtually every kind of wager that could exist, including classic casino games and charity raffles.'"

Nice scoop here with @kjspeakstruth: Polymarket's bets on individual bank failures are raising eyebrows in DC. Some worry these markets could grow & fuel a real-world bank run. FDIC officials also wondered if internal ethics rules strong enuf. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Kalshi’s “wisdom of the crowds” sure looks like a group chat with marching orders. Same post. Same talking points. Some are properly labeled “Paid partnership,” while others have no visible disclosure. @XCreators Amazing how everyone’s “independent research” led to the same marketing brief.

President Trump promised to drain the swamp and instead we’ve seen a category 5 corruption supercell. My five ways to power wash Washington’s culture of corruption across all three branches of government: 1. Ban all stock trading. 2. Ban all participation in prediction markets. 3. Mandatory retirement at 75 years old. 4. Mandatory blind trust for individuals with a net worth more than $1 million. 5. The Jared Kushner Ban: No foreign gifts to public officials, including foreign investments in their businesses or other entities. And yes, the ban stays in place for a period of at least two years after officials leave their job.

“It is difficult to imagine that Congress intended the CFTC to exclusively regulate whether sports-event contracts could be on DCMs, when those contracts did not even exist at the time.” (See Murphy v. NCAA)

Shame on everyone working to turn people’s lives into casinos — then — > hiding behind “prediction market” term > hiring presidents son to avoid regulations > conning young adults into converting their paychecks, into VC returns & early employee millionaire cashouts

in the coming years were all gonna be looking at kalshi and polymarket the same way we looked at juul and the people involved will be rushing to hide their involvement in the company

Citadel sent its Deputy U.S. Head of Government and Regulatory Policy to the CFTC last week to discuss the agency's rulemaking on affiliated market makers.

The use of monopoly to describe competitors like MGM, Caesars, Penn, Boyd, Wynn, Churchill Downs, Cordish, and a hundred other commercial operators (plus 250ish tribal operators) is something. Not to mention the states like Utah that aren't protecting any gambling "monopolies."

JUST IN: The Sixth Circuit ruled against Kalshi and in favor of Ohio and Tennessee, who want to regulate prediction platforms like gambling. This now means 2 federal appeals courts have ruled for the states, while 1 ruled in favor of prediction companies. SCOTUS looms.

Kalshi has now lost 15 consecutive federal court rulings since the Minnesota decision. With today’s reversal of Tennessee, States have prevailed in 38 out of 43 court decisions involving preliminary injunctions, TROs, or stays/injunctions pending appeal, an 88% success rate.

Kalshi messed up their Alaska primary market. The title didn’t match the rules. So what did they do? They interpreted their rules in a way that goes against the plain reading so they could pay out per the title. The funniest part is they say this only applies to France.

Inside Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour's testy relationship with Indian casinos - and how it could pose an existential threat: 'Lying little twerp' trib.al/sSq1Hbf