$BTC OrderFlow: In-Depth Update 📊 Let’s recap what happened this week, and what we can expect next week 👇 There’s a lot to learn from this one… And none of this is hindsight analysis. Go back and check the charts; I’ll also link the original posts alongside the relevant quotes. 1⃣ What happened last week? At the beginning of the week, price moved lower and tested the crucial rVAH level we had been discussing for several days prior. We never try to predict exactly what price will do when it reaches one of our levels. We prepare for it, mark it on our charts and set an alert. Sept. 11: "for now the overall range VAH remains THE key support for me. [...] Bulls need to defend ~75K USD!" nitter.net/The_JDK99/status/20983… Price hits our key level that we planned for well in advance, and instead of predicting the future outcome we now switch to the OrderFlow and closely watch the positioning and how price reacts around our key level of interest - are there any indications that this level is actually support? The OrderFlow showed: "fresh shorts opening into the level without producing any meaningful downside - a sign of bullish absorption. [...] OI remains elevated, which means those shorts are still exposed! That’s exactly the type of response we want to see at support." nitter.net/The_JDK99/status/21004… Shorts were selling into the level, yet price refused to break below it - that was my confirmation that the level actually can be called support - no prediction, reaction! The next thing we needed to see was genuine buying intent: enough demand to trap those shorts in losing positions and force them to cover, adding further fuel to a move higher. I should add that the volatility surrounding the CLARITY Act vote and the FOMC made lower-time-frame execution extremely difficult for me. In the end, however, we entered the trade once those events had passed and price continued to hold above our key level with shorts clearly at risk. The entire setup and execution were discussed live in the open Discord at the time. nitter.net/The_JDK99/status/21010… On Friday, we finally saw spot buyers step in, new long positions open, and price reward that aggression. Suddenly, everyone who had sold into the range VAH was trapped in a losing position. The bulls had taken control, and price confirmed it. We didn’t predict this move - we anticipated it based on the OrderFlow at our VERY key level. We reclaimed several key levels, including the crVAL and crPOC, and are now trading above the crVAH. 2⃣ What are we seeing right now? Price continues to trade above the current range VAH, yet we’re once again seeing new short positions open on Binance on the weeknd. For now, shorts remain the more popular side of the trade - the crowded trade! Despite that positioning, sellers have failed to produce any meaningful result thus far. And looking at open interest since the bounce began, we still haven’t seen a major reset. That tells us there are shorts continuing to hold underwater positions, and you don’t need to be a genius to take a good guess where their stop-losses are clustering. 👀 3⃣ What can we expect next week? Price is currently trading above key value levels. The short side remains crowded and underwater, and we still haven’t seen a significant reset in open interest. More importantly, this wasn’t simply a short-liquidation rally. The move showed genuine intent, supported by spot buying and new long positions opening. Now, imagine you opened a short today, or at any point earlier in the week. Where would you place your stop-loss? Most likely, just above the major swing high around $83K. As long as price remains below that level, the higher-time-frame bearish structure stays intact. A clean break above it, however, could have major implications for price action over the coming months. Considering a short here is absolutely not unreasonable, especially with price trading so close to that higher-time-frame invalidation level. But given the current OrderFlow and price action, I now see a strong chance of that swing high being broken in the coming week. Shorts have repeatedly failed to produce meaningful downside, while price continues to hold above key support. As long as price remains above the crVAH around $79.5K, my base case for next week is: - Another push higher - Underwater shorts being forced out (watch for OI to reset) - A break in the higher-time-frame bearish market structure - Traders flipping max bullish and new longs chasing the move (no prediction, but expectation - we will confirm this live with the OrderFlow) - Only then, a larger move lower to rebalance the inefficiencies left behind If price breaks the higher-time-frame bearish structure, there is a strong chance that Bitcoin’s low is already in. In that scenario, a subsequent retracement could present another major buying opportunity. The key zones I’ll be watching if this scenario develops will be covered in a separate post. 👉 The short version: Shorts remain popular, crowded, and trapped. As long as Bitcoin holds above the crVAH near $79.5K, I favor another push higher, potentially sweeping the $83K high and forcing crowded shorts out (OI reset). Lose that support, and the bullish scenario weakens. A failed breakout above that HTF high (SFP or Failed Auction) with OrderFlow confirming trapped longs, would then trigger a new short position for me. What are you expecting in the week ahead? 🤔

$BTC 📈 Failed breakout at the weekly VWAP. Poor highs were swept with real spot buying and new longs opening, but the move stalled and trapped late longs at the top. The failure back below weekly VWAP offered a solid intraday short down toward the current lows / Range High level, as discussed in the previous post (I did not take the position given the 30min close above wVWAP). Now playing patient: - Looking for a deviation below the current lows / Range High level. - Expecting shorts to chase into support, play the breakdown. - Swift reclaim back above the Range High = trigger to go long. - Targets: current highs ~$87k$ (+ prPOC, prVAH). - Invalidation: fresh low we put in. Awaiting OrderFlow confirmation at the key level before any execution. nitter.net/The_JDK99/status/21034…

$BTC 📈 Major retest held as support for now... OrderFlow wasn’t convincing, so I didn’t take a new position today. For a long, I’d need to see another attempt at the low: price pushes below and fails, with shorts chasing and getting trapped. Price rejected weekly VWAP twice today. Definitely a level to monitor. There’s not much else to update, and not enough happening on the chart to justify watching price action all day :) nitter.net/The_JDK99/status/21030…

$BTC 📈 Price is reacting off the previous range VAL - the key level we highlighted earlier. I haven’t spent much time at the charts, and with no high-probability entry, I didn’t take a new short position. My next key levels to the downside: 🔸 The Range High - a very important bullish retest 🔸 The previous mini-range VAH, confluent with the Golden Pocket and a sweep of the weekend lows 🔸 The range VAH, mini-range VAL, weekly level, and mini-range POC Alerts are set. When price reaches a zone of interest, I’ll check the OrderFlow for confirmation of a high-probability trade. nitter.net/The_JDK99/status/21020…

GM ☕️ $BTC HTF bearish market structure is history... And that means for me probability wise there is a >50% chance that we will NOT make another overall low. So my job for the next few weeks clear: Should we get the retracement find high probability zones of pot. support, confirm with OrderFlow and try and catch a pot. higher low 🔬 For now I'm closely watching the low AVWAP and the GoldenPocket. For now I'm still missing the confluence.

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$BTC 📈 My last high-probability setup was the long at the range VAH, where a large number of new shorts opened into the level without producing any downside. I took that trade live and walked you through the OrderFlow in detail. But right now, I simply don’t see another high-probability setup. Yesterday’s daily candle closed well above the range high (very bullish signal) and price continues to trade and find acceptance above it. We’re now starting to test the previous range value, which is a key area. So far, however, I don’t see enough weakness to justify a short position. nitter.net/The_JDK99/status/21005…

GM ☕️ New to OrderFlow? Stop guessing and start seeing what’s actually happening behind those candles…

$BTC OrderFlow 📊 New shorts are back at it ☠️ Fresh short exposure is entering the market, spot isn’t participating, and price continues to hold these higher levels well. I would never chase longs after a move like this, but I was open to shorting these prices following such a strong pump. As explained, I needed to see "traders flipping max bullish and new longs chasing the move" That isn’t happening. Instead, sellers are showing initiative, with no result so far. For me there is zero weakness to sell as of now. No confirmation. No new trade! nitter.net/The_JDK99/status/21016…