If we look at the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-Day Moving Average, fewer and fewer stocks trade above the 200-day moving average. Furthermore, I find it disturbing that so close to new all-time highs for the major Indices, 12-month new lows are now regularly exceeding 12-month new highs. Finally, the breakdown of so many important financial stocks is from my perspective an extremely negative omen for the entire market. That is why I am focusing on the gold and silver mining sector.
Friday Recap
Current (Last Week) -- (% from ATH | ATH)
AU: $4,139 ($4,279) -- 26% from ATH ($5,608)
AG: $60 ($64) -- 50% from ATH ($121)
HUI: 736 (786) -- 25% from ATH (986)
DXY: 101 (99)
S&P 500: 7,722 (7,443) - - 1% from ATH (7816)
10-Year: 5.2% (5.1%)
Long-term interest rates continued to trend higher, but the S&P didn't care, finishing the week near an ATH. Gold and silver didn't like the higher rates, both falling significantly and pulling the HUI down to 736. The higher dollar (DXY), rising from 99 to 101, also didn't help gold and silver. The dollar liked the higher rates.
What comes next for the S&P 500? Do we reach 7,800 in October or have a correction? I expect the latter. Wall Street only cares about GDP, earnings, and the jobs markets. GDP and earnings have been solid in aggregate because the AI trade has lifted them up. The jobs market is weak, but Wall Street thinks it is okay as long as there is some job growth. The average job growth over the past 12 months is averaging 45,000 a month, which isn't good. Replacing a job takes about 6 months on average. Plus, AI continues to be a job killer, replacing about 10,000 jobs a month. And Boomers keep retiring in large numbers, at around 150,000 per month.
The S&P is highly concentrated, with information technology at 40%. The last time it was this concentrated was in 2000, before the Dotcom bubble popped. Plus, many other sectors are being driven higher by AI, such as Caterpillar, materials, and financials from the AI buildout. The positive impact on the S&P from AI is huge. This impact is why the S&P refused to fall. But what happens when that impact slows? What picks up the slack?
I need gold to outperform the S&P 500, which hasn't happened since 2011, when gold was 60% higher than the S&P. The S&P has been winning for a long, long time. But I think that winning streak is about to end. I keep my eye on the S&P 500's ATH (7800), 100 DMA (7500), and 200 DMA (7200). I keep waiting for the next battle between gold and the S&P. I need the S&P 500 to drop below the 200 DMA and stay there for several months. Will it begin in October? Stay tuned.
Until Gold wins the final battle, all we can do is buy gold/silver miners (on the dips) and wait. Once gold wins, we can ride the train to the top of the mountain. Where is the top? At least $8,000 is my guess. Perhaps in 2028. I'm expecting a 5-6-7-8 outcome as follows: January 2027 ($5,000), June 2027 ($6,000), January 2028 ($7,000), June 2028 ($8,000). If I'm wrong, it won't be by much. Gold has already won. Wall Street just hasn't figured that out yet.