this little market@ThisLittleMkt

small-cap value investor spanning 4 decades | CFA charterholder | top 10 MBA | on a MISSION to help you beat the market | weekly newsletter beginning in 2024

 in the market
Joined July 2018
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Pinehurst Resort@PinehurstResort
31 Dec 2024
We'll always remember 2024. What an incredible year for Pinehurst. To commemorate this great year on New Year's Eve, let's do a giveaway. Repost this for a chance for you and one guest to spend two nights at Pinehurst and play Pinehurst No. 2 - site of the 2024 U.S. Open - and Tom Doak's Pinehurst No. 10.
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“Be so good they can’t ignore you” —Steve Martin
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Of course, there’s a lot more to doing good company research than this. But if you are able to expand upon each of these items, it will save you a lot of heartache and prevent you from from making bad investments!
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If I had to boil it all down to one metric…always focus on free cash flow yield, and you can’t go wrong. Happy investing!
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Earlier this year I started a series about how to analyze companies to find 20% annualized returns… Life happened, and the series got interrupted, so here’s a short summary. Happy investing!
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10/ Compare your estimate of long-term intrinsic value to the company’s stock price 11/ Only invest if a margin of safety exists (i.e. the stock price is trading at a significant discount to your estimate of intrinsic)
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7/ Understand the true value of assets and liabilities on the balance sheet 8/ Estimate normalized free cash flow 9/ Capitalize FCF at an appropriate yield (usually 6-7% is appropriate for steady state growth)
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1/ Screen for value 2/ Read K’s & Q’s 3/ Build a spreadsheet of the company’s financial statements 4/ Identify the drivers of revenue and costs 5/ Get granular in your analysis 6/ Break down each line of the income statement into its component parts
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Regret is knowing you could have done something amazing, but instead you did nothing…because you were afraid.
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In 2007–2008, I was short $WERN stock. The damn stock never would drop, in spite of deteriorating fundamentals and a macro environment that suggested transportation should slow. Lesson: don’t fight the market’s long-term climb upward!
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All “investing” is value investing. Anything else is just speculation.
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There’s really only one metric above all others to determine long-term intrinsic value… Free cash flow yield captures everything!
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If you check the stock price of your long-term holdings more than once a quarter, shame on you. A watched pot never boils.
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Value is created over years… …not over days or quarters.
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It’s amazing to me how offended people can get when you tell them that index funds aren’t real “investing.” Sure…it’s a great start to saving and compounding over the long term, but investing involves weighing the “risks” too. There’s no risk assessment in index investing!
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You can’t really “invest” in something you don’t know.
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Free cash flow is the giver of life to a company. #ValueInvesting
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Value is created over years… …not over days or quarters.
Justin Welsh
@thejustinwelsh
2 Jul 2024
The longer I work for myself, the more I realize that "time in business" is the most important metric. Most people give up long before they'll see any real traction. Life and business aren't get-rich-quick. It pays to play the long game.
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Saw an article in the WSJ this morning. $CPB and $SJM are selling LESS volume at grocery stores. Prices are up. But volume is down. There’s an investment theme in there… Maybe private label $THS, or perhaps competitor $BGS, is worth a look?
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Do you know how many stocks you need to own to have almost the same diversification as owning the entire stock market? Research suggests that only 15-16 individual names will get you there. Over-diversification leads to under-performance.
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