Bloomberg flagging ~$1 trillion in bonds trading wider than their rating implies. The market is pricing calm at the index level while quietly repricing individual bonds underneath. This is a set-up for active managers to add value and for passive credit exposure to underperform.

As expected..didn't work. Right back to where it started. Can't contain something without solving the root cause.

This is a signal that Washington will actively manage long-end yields rather than let the market (or the Fed) do the work. Takes a bit of the wind out of the sails of Warsh's argument that financial markets are doing the work for them via higher rates, hence they don't need to hike rates.

AI isn't just an equity story, credit markets are absorbing record supply. Hyperscalers have issued $169B in bonds in YTD 2026, with plans for $725 billion in combined capex before YE, up 77% from 2025. The coupon income story is intact, but duration is the hidden risk, with a decisive shift toward the long end. Prudent to stay in the front end and belly of the curve and security selection beats broad beta from here.

Here is another inflation risk factor I don't think the market has fully priced in yet - 2026 Super El Niño Iran conflict disrupted fertilizer supply. Now a Super #ElNino is forming on top of it. → Two independent supply shocks → Same crop cycle → Same 2026–2027 window This is supply-driven inflation that monetary policy can’t fix. 🌡️ What @NOAA says: → 90%+ probability El Niño arrives Jun–Aug 2026 → 1-in-3 chance of a very strong event by year-end Peak pain in 2027 given 6–12 month production lag, with the most exposed being: 🔴 Sugar: India & Thailand production -20–30% 🔴 Cocoa: West Africa drought risk 🔴 Palm oil: Southeast Asia dry conditions 🔴 Wheat: Australia down ~9M tonnes in 2026/27 🔴 Rice: Indian monsoon failure risk The fertilizer double hit: → Urea prices doubled since Iran conflict → U.S. imports 90% of its potassium → Hormuz carries 1/3 of global fertilizer trade If the FAO food price index rises 50% by year-end ➡️ G7 food inflation hits double digits in 2027.

These guys just kept rowing, and rowing, and rowing. Hilarious. Thanks for hosting us @BNYglobal and @FIFAHospitality - above and beyond experience.

Here is a relatable inflation indicator - the Bacon Egg & Cheese w/Coffee Index. You don’t need a CPI report to feel inflation, just make breakfast. Markets largely looked through the inflation print, with Treasury yields little changed following the release. Attention now turns to next week’s FOMC meeting where policymakers will weigh the highest inflation print in three years against a resilient labor market. In the coming months, we remain focused on second-order inflation effects, specifically whether higher energy prices will feed into transportation and other energy-intensive categories, ultimately pushing core inflation higher.

“Only hawks get to go to central banker heaven” - former Dallas Fed President Bob McTeer At the end of the day, Warsh is a policy hawk. His more dovish comments last year were all about campaigning for the job. His focus will shift to his legacy - that means ensuring price stability. The word cloud below is based on Warsh’s prior communications.

Addepar and CNBC created the Family Office Portfolio Tracker – the first ever snapshot of the actual portfolios of family offices. 57% of UHNW investors are in illiquid and opaque asset classes. #Tokenization doesn’t change what they own but how they own it. We now have a better benchmark on the $6T family office market. 60/40 portfolio should really not exist in 2026.

30Y yields broke 5%. 10Y at 4.46%. Markets pricing a Fed hike. This is the environment liquidity and shorter-duration credit matters. → Private credit at 9.5% & locked up vs. public credit HY at 8%+ 👉~150 bps illiquidity premium.

Most divided since 1992 - but the dissenters weren't on the same side. A Fed divided between hawks and doves, a new chair with limited coalition support for cuts, sticky energy-driven inflation, and a geopolitical wildcard. Markets are currently pricing in no changes for the rest of 2026 and well into 2027. The 8-4 split today makes that more credible