I obviously could be super wrong here but I am still pretty damn confident despite this apathetic pa that we will get a violent break soon and a meaningful uptick in volatility. Personally think there is a 8-10 chance that red box gets sodomised and raided below I like these odds personally so im putting it out there for you to berate #BTC

Snapshot of Coinbase books as they stand at 'present' Subject to change offcourse but no real signs of exceptional bid side demand "yet" Let's see what Friday gives bitcoin:native

This seller is not playing games and defending the weekly vwap with his might Walls were filled and immidiately refreshed Who will crack?! #BTC

System check! $BTC

They still trying to tighten the screws Will be a big day for Risk today No buyers willing to lift this offer then logically we test lower today A big day in trade is in store Are we ready!? #BTC

Proper range this being pinned between large passive orders Looks like Binance sellers are keen on keeping price pinned below weekly vwap Looks like orders have been pulled on other avenues lower Will be interesting to see this play out but likely further shenanigans into Friday close $BTC

Current weekly candle Looks similar innit? #BTC

In regime shifts you need to pay attention to shift in behaviour People are tooting ydays oi flush as bullish I think it shows a change in guard and confidence Acceptance below weekly bracket and no retest of vwap Lower, much lower #BTC

"THE BULL MARKET IS BACK" PYVALUE CHECK $BTC

System check!

TOP IS IN I REPEAT TOP IS IN $BTC

So even if this is a bullish regime shift as many are stating why can't it wick into the rolling 365 or weekly 50 sma again? Would be completely what the Dr orders tbf #BTC

It is all about the qauter level rn Q4 2025 VAL is the boss. No Acceptance there then it is exactly as i have been stating This is simply $BTC trading within a yearly bracket Clean break back below would be a banger of a trigger for a larger mean reverting move south Needs to put time and structure above 88s otherwise cattle are sleep walking into an abattoir #BTC

I get it the vibes are running hot right now But I am here to remind you all that we are just trading within established value for the year Yet if i read the timeline I could swear we're on a rocket ship to new highs? Look if we can accept into 2025 bracket (so last year's yearly value for the lay which is 88 k) then I can see the cause for major excitement $BTC

Will come with a detailed post monday but wanted to update some thoughts in line with previous post Was not in the slightest surprised by this pop Range low shorters chasing breakdown shorts from value got carried out and it was lovely to play the bottom side of the range But my assessment is many longs have come in around this zone (not only in bitcoin:native but in many large caps as well) Spot orderbooks arn't budging for now as evidenced by this clear imbalance Does this mean this is inherently bearish? No But we need to distinguish our environment for context. In strong bull trends you expect the offer to be refreshed and lifted by willing participants (bulls), however, if we are still trading within the confides of a larger macro downtrending Range (my base case still tbh) then we need to be cognistant when the imbalances in the spot books happen like this as they often require too much capital (effort) to push through and spill into a trend changing move My invalidation is in and around May highs (the last time we tried to push through this region). We get a weekly close through 83 k then im flipping the script and going full bull where id expect us to hit the 90 k region swiftly bitcoin:native

As mentioned this is still very much adhering to range bound pa And is great for those with the system, skills and initiative to play it as it churns I personally wouldn't be shocked if we raided the 80s from here And would be welcome to another stab at the local highs I am playing both sides I still favour priortising shorts in range but you do you Cheers $BTC

Every post I see today wringing its hands about the Dems not voting for CLARITY is trying to frame them as anti-American. Maybe the outcome would have been different if the current president wasn't running a multi billion dollar crypto grift from the Oval Office. Just an idea.

Markets move on positional flows Whatever narrative you think is already priced in is usually just the market walking toward max pain and the path of least resistance When we gapped up a few weeks back, it wasn’t Bessent’s signal to the bond market or the debasement thesis suddenly taking center stage. It was overcrowded shorts, ripe for the picking Look at the tape now: bonds breaking, oil ripping, credit spreads slowly starting to widen, volatility still suppressed. Something will hit and trigger a messy flush of selling. You’ll call it a Black Swan. The market has already been telling you it wants to mean revert lower Circular reasoning is a curse

The prognosis 2 weeks ago when we first marked up that this was a serious momentum thrust that was going to be met with an impulse to 90 k with haste Notice what weve done since? Ranged Now, the problem is as a bull you realy should only be accepting shallow pullbacks to characterise this as a reaccumulation base like prior moves done If you find yourself moving the goal post (looking to bid lower for instance) maybe you should scrutinse the qaulity of your bias led thesis? Im calling it. If we get 72s will eventually get 52 k Thanks #BTC

74800 raided This was always part of my prognosis Can now see if we can wiggle our way back to the higher echelons of the range Perhaps all the way back But make no mistake, I am willing to bet this will all lead to a giant fade and unwind this upthrust You say Bullmarket? I call BS #BTC