Interesting lecture on “miscalculation” from someone who spent years as a TPLF spokesman, served as Tigray’s lead negotiator in Pretoria, then fell out with the party and is now an adviser to
@AbiyAhmedAli
And calling a TPLF–Eritrea alignment “unholy” is especially rich when Eritrean forces literally fought alongside Abiy’s federal army against Tigray in 2020–22. Alliances clearly become “disastrous” only when you’re no longer standing on that side of them.
You can criticize TPLF strategy all you want, but acting like you’re some detached observer of Tigray’s political history is comedy. You were inside the room for years. Now you’re advising the government you once negotiated against. History has receipts too. 😭
Taking calculated risk has never been the strong suit of the rump TPLF’s leadership. This was more than borne out by its recent disastrous miscalculation. What is more striking is how that trademark miscalculation was further compounded by the unholy alliance the TPLF leadership made with the father of disastrous miscalculations, Isaias Afeworki of Eritrea, not to mention the miscalculation of the other junior partners in this unholy alliance.
As it turns out, by making an unholy alliance the TPLF leadership and president Isaias have proved, if anything, their tremendous capacity to bring down with them all those who have the stupidity to count on their wisdom, and to absolute oblivion. History seems to have passed a rather cruel verdict on President Isaias’ penchant for geopolitical gamble. That, alliance with its worst enemy, the TPLF, is about to prove the undoing of the Grand fool in Asmara is the most cruel of ironies.