7+ years in markets. Flagged $60k as $BTC’s bottom. Called TSLA’s peak ~1% below it. Calculated gold’s peak months ahead within ~3.6%.
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4 months of correctly predicted price action so far.
Minor tweak: because Feb’s low was breached, the HTF MSB now sits at 82.8k. Break that level and the probability that we’re in a new uptrend rises above 90%.
$BTC #Bitcoin
$BTC HTF Update
As much as I’m a HTF bull, I must admit that the move from the February 6 low to the high 70s appears corrective. Therefore, it looks like the max pain scenario from here—for both bulls and bears—is more chop.
A month ago I flagged a possible expanding leading diagonal (see this post: x.com/TraderJBx/status/20351…), and then we got a correction down to the March 29 low. Normally, this 1-2 is followed by a strong wave 3, but the move from March 29 to now has been too slow, too overlapping, too easy to get into, and has left far too much stops/liquidity behind. There are LTF impulses, but they feel forced, the corrections between them are excessively long, and when you zoom out the structure simply doesn’t look like a true impulse. It could very well be an inverted ABC.
If this read is correct, it becomes more probable that the C wave of this HTF expanded flat contains an extended wave 1, the advance from the February 6 low to the present is wave 4, and we still have a final downward wave 5 to complete (as shown in the attached chart and the right-hand chart in the quoted post). It remains to be seen whether wave 5 will sweep the $60k low (full impulse) or truncate. Either way, what follows should mark the true start of the next impulsive uptrend.
I have to admit this scenario would be perfect from both a sentiment and technical perspective:
1) Price first pumps above the February high to test/fill the 1D inefficiency (see this post: x.com/TraderJBx/status/20445…). Bulls celebrate, call the correction over and new ATHs are coming… only to get rejected hard.
2) Price then delivers the final downward wave 5 of the expanded flat. Big players take all the liquidity below and shakes out retail.
3) At the lows, bears cheer and declare the “bear market” is back… only for price to find strong support and immediately begin the next uptrend.
4) Neither bulls nor bears get the outcome they want. The whole process can easily take considerably longer than expected, leaving both sides impatient, chopped out, and/or forced to exit positions.
The invalidation of this scenario is a clear impulsive HTF market structure break (from mid-air) above the previous HTF lower high: the $97.9k high of January 14.
#Bitcoin
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I haven’t seen anyone talk about this scenario.
What’s interesting is that $MSFT—an asset with more than twice the market cap of $BTC—just showed it’s possible.
I'm positioned if it happens. Are you?
The similarities between MSFT and $BTC never cease to amaze me. The first printed a downward impulse for its C wave, while the second formed an ending diagonal—yet at the end of the day, both are motive waves.
Microsoft’s reversal is already in wave ⓘ territory. If #Bitcoin follows the same path, price could reach the high 80s or low 90s within the next week or two, with the full impulse potentially extending to 100k. I know it sounds crazy, but that’s exactly what the MSFT chart has already done—and it’s certainly not what the majority is expecting.
Interesting times 🍿
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Cleaning in progress ✅ Closed my last long too early, but profit is profit. A reminder that real trading won’t always be perfect.
Ready to buy some stops again.
$BTC #Bitcoin
Alright, looks like she’s still too shy to break out for now. $82.8k remains the key level to hold or at most deviate below and reclaim. Acceptance below that and we likely get a deeper, longer correction.
I had a long running from the 82s but closed it in profit. I don't like today's rejection, we’re heading into the weekend, and there’s some juicy liquidity sitting lower. On to the next.
$BTC #Bitcoin
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$CRV
Looking good. Price is back inside the main range and reclaiming the first support.
Crypto gods, hear my prayers: make this run like ZEC or QNT.
#CurveFinance
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Intermediate wave (1), the 2022–2024 bull market, gained nearly 600%. In crypto, third waves rarely underperform first waves, regardless of degree. If that tendency holds and the wave count is correct, Intermediate wave (3) could push beyond $400k in the years ahead.
This is not a prediction or a claim that it must happen—just a look at what the math allows. The chart should give warning signs in due time, as a top approaches.
$BTC #Bitcoin
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TraderJB retweeted
If this is the "shortest" and "weakest" "bear market" you've seen then 126k wasn't the "cycle top" you think it was...it's really that simple.
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A bottom was supposed to happen today; it happened more than 3 months ago. An ATH was supposed to arrive after the 2024 halving; it came earlier. The “bear market” was supposed to be deeper; it was shallower.
A few historical coincidences do not make a cycle. Markets are not that simple, and the sooner you accept this, the sooner you can focus on what actually matters: waves and market structure. At this point, if you still insist on a 4-year cycle for $BTC, your ego is winning the battle—and ego doesn’t make money in markets.
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$XRP
We’ve seen an impulse from $0.98 and now there’s also an impulse of one degree lower starting from $1.24. The best long setup I see to ride the trend is an entry at the bottom of wave (iv), since a lot of stops are likely sitting there—though I’m not sure it will reach that deep. The gray demand zone also offers a solid entry and the invalidation is clear.
Several altcoins are showing similar 1-2, 1-2 structures, which points to a possible wave 3 of 3 ahead. That would line up with the breakout in OTHERS.D and the scenario of an extension on BTC. It would be poetic if those pumps came in the month when BTC is supposed to be bottoming under the 4-year cycle theory, so don’t get caught off guard.
$XRP
As expected, the gray demand zone held, and the diagonal resistance (not visible on this chart) was broken to the upside. I previously labeled the correction from late 2024 as a combination, but given that the decline from the ATH looks like an ending diagonal, I believe it fits better as the C wave of a large expanded flat. Within this structure, waves 1, 3, and 5 all printed bullish RSI divergences relative to one another—exactly the kind of behavior I want to see at a bottom.
Considering how long this correction has lasted (20–21 months), I now view the entire price action from late 2024 as a huge 1-2 setup, with wave (3) probably starting now. Invalidation sits at the local low near $0.986.
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“Mid-cycle correction,” “bear market,” “new cycle,” “Supercycle,”…
Learn the Elliott Wave Principle, and you’ll realize they are all the same thing: waves.
Respect it, and it will give you the highest-probability compass for navigating markets.
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$TAO
Another full impulse has developed from $213 with a 3–5 RSI divergence. By now you should know how effective this divergence is for spotting local tops and bottoms, and why it is an essential part of my trading strategy.
The June 14 daily and weekly close acted as resistance twice in September before the breakout. We have not retested that level yet, and equal lows are sitting around $277. If price tests that area, I will look for another long targeting $378.
#Bittensor
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It’s a shame how toxic Crypto X can get. People attack you just because they disagree with you, criticize each other, pick fights, and expose other people’s wrong analyses as if their own were the only truth. In case you haven’t noticed, nobody here is going to be spared from being wrong. Nobody.
Hell, even I’ve let myself get poisoned by it sometimes, especially with bears who attacked me. It turns into an endless cycle of “you come at me, I hit back,” and nothing changes. Enough is enough. If anyone sees me acting like one of these misfits, please call me out so I can stop. I won’t become one of them.
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Alright, looks like she’s still too shy to break out for now. $82.8k remains the key level to hold or at most deviate below and reclaim. Acceptance below that and we likely get a deeper, longer correction.
I had a long running from the 82s but closed it in profit. I don't like today's rejection, we’re heading into the weekend, and there’s some juicy liquidity sitting lower. On to the next.
$BTC #Bitcoin
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$CRV
Extended the range as shown on the chart. Fourth RSI divergence on the 12h timeframe, SFP of the range high so far, range low remains unswept.
Mentally prepared for more chop, and treating any breakout as a welcome surprise if it comes.
#CurveFinance
$CRV
The bearish RSI divergence played out and price is now chopping inside the purple range, as suggested. The duration and depth of this correction will give a better read on the larger wave structure, so give it time to develop.
Expecting the green zone to hold on any retest, if needed.
#CurveFinance
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Can someone explain what the big deal is with ETF flows? They seem completely irrelevant to me.
“Positive net flows are good, negative ones are bad.” No shit. Price goes up when buying exceeds selling and vice versa. Groundbreaking insight.
If anything, they look more like a contrarian indicator: peak inflows usually show up at local tops, peak outflows at local bottoms.
$BTC #Bitcoin
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Educational note: an impulsive or corrective move does not have to be perfectly visible on every timeframe. In most cases it will stand out clearly on some timeframes and not on others, simply because of how candles are aggregated as you change timeframe. If a move already satisfies the rules of an impulse on one or more timeframes, it is impulsive. Period.
Tim is right: on the 8h chart and on several other timeframes, the advance from 75s to 87s is clearly impulsive. As long as its origin is not breached, those five waves up can still become wave 1 of a larger five-wave advance (extension), specially considering that waves 3 and 5 of this move do not show a bearish RSI divergence. Of course, this does not mean the move MUST extend; it only raises the probability of that scenario when combined with other factors such as sentiment and seasonal expectations.
$BTC #Bitcoin
Thank you. The hardest part for me is the TF. On the 8HTF there is a clear 5 waves up. On the DTF only three into four. I guess it's look wait see...
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Investing and waiting years for life-changing gains is hard.
Not investing and staying trapped in the rat race is hard.
Choose your hard.
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