Knowing when to be in the market, when OUT and on which side is #priceless CTM is roaring in the bliss. Learn how a mechanical systematic edge is developed and why it offers you a strong edge in the markets, piped.video/eiSuOfkywfM

Proof we live in a stimulation and the funniest outcome is the most likely. Remember when Bitcoiners went on a Tungsten campaign ... Look what happened with price appreciation since.

You've been following the wrong channel.

Inverted head and shoulders breaking out with authority. The measured move points to roughly 33K on the Nasdaq. But we’re going to need to see oil and the 10-year yield come down. Otherwise, this move could get violent to the upside and potentially even more violent on the downside afterward.

Glorious morning.

Touched and bounced off of the neckline resistance today. Break above and it's on. 10-year threatens 5%. TIPS rising. Those are my concerns. Watch oil.

In an extreme monetary debasement, scarce productive assets can outperform the monetary hedge itself. This is why CTM focuses on the big three, Bitcoin Gold Tech Select tech will outperform Bitcoin and gold. This is the hedge against the devaluation and how you protect your family and future. The unwind is underway and fiat will get destroyed.

The 10-year is effectively tomorrow’s scoreboard, not the S&P 500 I’d almost ignore the first S&P move and watch four things: 10Y/30Y yields, 2s10s/5s30s curve behavior, the 2027 dots/funds-futures path, and real yields versus breakevens.

Whoever wins AI, wins.

You should be able to trade a market even when you don’t understand why price is behaving differently than you think it should. Trade what the market is doing; not what you think it should be doing.

"We can't pause," Bessent said. "You can't, because the Chinese won't pause." "If they were to pull ahead of us on AI, then nothing else matters."

So it begins. The market is starting to push Treasury Secretary Bessent toward real yield curve control. The question now: how much pain does the bond market need to inflict before policymakers blink?

My thesis on gold continues to play out, with the macro and technicals remaining strongly aligned. Gold is trading directly off the probability of Fed hikes or the lack of them. If the market is mispriced and expectations for future hikes continue to get priced out, I believe we’ve already seen the low. If the Fed hikes at any point this year and the market interprets that as the beginning of additional hikes, I expect gold to retest the $4,000 area. If two or more hikes become priced in, I would expect $4,000 to break. For now, the technicals are confirming the macro thesis.

Perfect Storm Brewing? Here's What Would Make Me Cut Risk piped.video/live/YBnh6LHqFr0…

Everyone's going to call this a rounded top on the Nasdaq. Here's what they're missing: break the neckline to the upside and it was never a top. It's an inverse head and shoulders and the measured move points 11% higher into year-end. Same chart. Opposite outcomes. It all hinges on one line.

Thoughts on Warsh’s J-Hole speech: hawk or dove? I think it was a brilliant move to keep the market close to 50/50 heading into the next meeting, and potentially through the rest of the year. So far, Warsh has shown real competence in removing forward guidance and putting the focus back where it belongs: the data. Once again, the data matters. Next week’s jobs numbers and the coming inflation prints are going to be important. I expect both to come in softer. If they do, the path toward accommodation becomes much clearer.

The head of trading at the world's largest CFD broker (IC Markets), on discretionary vs systematic trading: "I've looked at hundreds of thousands of traders over the years... The client who I'd put my own money behind is the system trader... The discretionary trader is someone who looks good for a period of time and then blows up in spectacular fashion." Position systematically around momentum instead of trying to discretionarily time every top and bottom. Follow the signal. Manage the risk. Let the trend do the heavy lifting. That’s the edge. CTM all day long.