JUST IN: A prime 270k sq ft office building in Downtown Seattle sold for $12.5 million - a shocking $46 per sq ft The price represents an ~87% decline from it's $97M value in 2019 Absolute destruction happening in Seattle right now... But this isn’t just Seattle - a massive office/CRE repricing is still happening across the country Stay tuned and follow for more major real estate deals and updates like this

Real estate owners are still listing properties at ~3% cap rate... Meanwhile, current US Treasury Yields: 2Y: 4.9% 5Y: 5.0% 10Y: 5.2% 30Y: 5.4% And somehow there are still buyers/brokers looking at this 3 cap In-N-Out thinking: “Yeah, this is an attractive opportunity!”

Nothing eases my concerns about AI ending humanity, $100 oil and 10% mortgage rates quite like seeing Jake Paul at the Treasury Department Thank you, Mr. Secretary

JUST IN: Wendy's continues to TUMBLE toward levels not seen in over a decade The plunge comes as Meritage Hospitality, one of Wendy's largest franchisees, files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy They operate 314 Wendy’s It’s sad watching iconic fast food brands crash in real time But at this point, is anyone really surprised when we've seen: Spike in prices + Smaller portions + Declining food quality The value proposition that fast food chains used to offer is no longer there... There are simply better options

JUST IN: Shake Shack continues to PLUNGE towards 52 wk lows and is now down over 40% in the past yr and ~60% from its ATH I don't know about you, but I think they're in a lot of trouble First, let me say this - I like the food But the last times I've visited, I waited 20+ mins for the food and it wasn't busy 20+ mins at a QUICK SERVICE restaurant... That's unacceptable Then there's the price... You're looking at $20+ for a Shackburger, fries and drink I can live with paying $20+ What I can't live w/ is paying $20+ at a QSR and still being hungry when I leave So you've got: Slow service + Premium pricing + Small portions That is a recipe for disaster Something has to change at Shake Shack or they risk becoming another forgotten restaurant chain like so many before them...

JUST IN: Lululemon stock continues to PLUNGE and is now down over 80% from its all time high on Dec 2023 We are seeing is one of the fastest collapses of a beloved apparel brand not named Nike What on EARTH happened to Lululemon and can they turn it around?

"DON'T FIGHT THE FED" Absolutely insane seeing investors break the one rule they should be fully aware of I wouldn't be surprised if there's a 20%+ correction during this rate hike cycle Consider yourself warned

Remember when the GOAT Rick Santelli said the 10Y may go up to 13.5-14% on live television...? Would anyone be surprised if we saw 10%+ 30 yr mortgage rates?

McDonalds' stock has declined 20% and has lost nearly $50 billion of mkt value since the infamous viral CEO burger bite clip on Feb 3 The stock is down ~25% from its ATH just ~6 months ago and is experiencing a sharp drawdown What has gone wrong at McDonalds?

A lot of millionaires and billionaires are having this EXACT conversation And that can be a problem for stocks Why take equity risk at current valuations when you can lock in 5%+ on Treasuries right now? Every investor asking this question means more competition for the same capital Especially at 5% which seems to be the psychological threshold where 'risk-free' starts looking pretty damn attractive for many people So lets hear it - at what yield do treasuries make more sense than stocks for you right now?

You can get 5%+ risk free or buy this In-N-Out Burger for a ~3% cap rate This will get sold but the irrational decisions of some 'investors' will always blow my mind Which one are you taking?

Things are setting up for a VIOLENT market correction: -Ai bubble fears & leaders screaming for regulation -10Y at ~5% -Oil > $100 -Inflation risk back in play -Fed rate hike fears -Buffett indicator near historic extremes -Real estate cracking in major metros -30Y mortgage at ~7% -Speculative leverage showing cracks -Election uncertainty So we've got... Expensive stocks + 5% risk free + $100 oil + sticky inflation + Ai bubble fears + leverage + election uncertainty Buckle up cause it might get VERY bumpy...

Signs we’re near the top: -US stocks ATH -Home prices cracking -Consumer spending/confidence = low -Inflation back in play -Mega cap companies & indices (Kospi) moving like meme stocks -Long pipeline of mega IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) -Record margin debt What am I missing?

The white collar apocalypse we’ve been fearing is here… Tech employees are completely screwed How screwed? On a scale of 1-10 probably a 12 The only people more screwed are students that’ve been preparing their whole lives to become software engineers What comes next?

Signs it's very late cycle: -Middle class tapped out -Dining out = luxury -Layoff accelerating, hiring frozen -Mega IPOs lined up (ie. SpaceX) -Defensives ripping (gold/silver/Korea) -Risky assets unwinding -Home prices cracking -Card delinquencies elevated What am I missing?

Chicago office buildings continue to get massacred... A landmark Chicago Loop office building recently took a massive ~90% 'haircut' The 1.4M SF building sold for $41M or just $29 per SF It last sold for $306M in 2018, per Crain Absolutely brutal

Buying US rural/farm land in the path of growth is the most irreplaceable asset in the world There's ZERO substitute to owning land in the most powerful country in the world Ai/Claude or any new tech will not change this It's wild that hundreds or thousands acres of pristine land in the US can be bought for just a few thousand dollars an acre Is there an asset that's actually more irreplaceable?

Barry Sternlicht gives an insightful view about the challenges of real estate right now - and how to still make a lot of money in the current environment Here's what he said: "I think people, as they always do, tend to look in the rear view mirror and they look at a suboptimal performance of the real estate asset class across the last 3-4 years. Nvidia goes up a trillion dollars in four months. Like the hot kids on the block are everything AI, everything chatbot, etc... There are meme stocks that go from zero to $7 a share on a tweet. Crypto - there's worthless coins with $20+ billion dollar market caps. There's a coin called Useless. It's [literally] useless. It debuted in March 2025 and it went to a $700 million value. And the coin says "we are completely useless" In real estate people get rich but it's boring. You get rich holding on to it over long periods of time. It's not a day trading asset. The country right now is very impatient. So people want to play the hot thing. Real estate looks sort of sad in your portfolio right now. The only thing it beats is treasuries. And even then, it's not even beaten that. But you'll do well picking properties in the right cities... Everything is micro in real estate. For example, I built a building in South Beach. The first lease was $54. It's on the beach, and nobody built a new office building in 20+ years. We leased it up in the pandemic. It's 100% leased. A tenant actually needs to grow, and they called us last week. They're paying $125 and we'll re-lease it at $175. I mean, you can still make a lot of money if you get the micro market right."