Vacation towns are about to get decimated. Start in the 1960s. Somebody's grandparents bought a place like this on a middle class income. One earner, a decent job, a cabin on the water. Their kids did a little better. Upper middle class, bigger house in the suburbs, and they bought a second home too. That was still normal. Then look at now. Today the median first time buyer is 40 years old, an all time high, and first timers down to 21% of the market, an all time low. People are hitting middle age before they close on a starter house, and plenty never do. So the chain breaks right here. Three generations in, the handoff stops. Now run it forward. The boomers own a staggering amount of this stuff, and over the next decade it will all come to market in the same window. Lake houses, beach cottages, ski condos, desert casitas. The heirs mostly don't want it. Insurance on anything near water, fire or hail has gone vertical. Property taxes reset on transfer in some states and just keep climbing in the others. The dues on a resort condo run like a car payment and half these towns have cracked down on short term rentals, so the "it pays for itself" math doesn't pencil anymore either. And an inherited house rarely stays inherited. Somebody always wants the money instead. So it gets listed. Usually right after probate clears. Massive inventory is coming. But buyers aren't. Get ready for these prices to go to rock bottom.

PSA: If you're a new real estate agent here's why you should NOT quit A lot of people are leaving the industry right now The market’s tough Deals are fewer and farther between And the comfort of a steady paycheck every 2 weeks is hard to ignore But here’s a story that’s always stuck with me: There was a guy in my training class who gave it everything for a year He worked extremely hard, but hadn’t closed a deal for 12 months so he left and took a $120K salaried job Understandable, but here’s what happened next: Six months later, one of the meetings he went on with a huge property owner came back The owner tried to reach him, but his phone/email were deactivated They ended up calling a senior agent from his old team and listed 15 (FIFTEEN) properties with him All 15 sold in under 4 months The portfolio generated $1.5 million in gross commission His hard work paid off...for someone else So before you walk away, remember: You don’t fail in this business, you just quit too soon So hang in there, you're probably closer than you think

When you’re typing an important email Do you delete the recipient’s name so you don’t accidentally hit send too early? Or are you normal?

Burger King just paid $18.2 million to make a lawsuit disappear Up until recently, Carrols was the largest Burger King franchisee on earth They operated 1,000 restaurants at their peak Then the franchisor (Burger King) bought them, and Carrols shareholders said the whole thing was a setup Here's why: In 2012, Burger King gave Carrols something franchisees never get. The right of first refusal across 20 states. When another operator agreed to sell their stores, Carrols could step in front of the current buyer and take the deal at that price That power typically belongs to the franchisor. But Burger King handed it over to Carrols over a decade ago. Carrols used it to roll up store after store until they hit their 1,000 unit ceiling in 2019 Then the brand decided that franchisees getting too big was a problem... Burger King started saying it wanted franchisees with 50 stores or less Owners had to be close enough to drive to every restaurant And then the remodels came due... Carrols reported $800,000 to $1.7 million per store is what the BK required remodels cost them Carrols wanted to buy more locations But Burger King wanted that $ to be invested back into their current buildings So in January 2024, Burger King offered $9.55 a share, to buy Carrols (about a billion dollars) Analysts had the stock worth closer to $13 That's where the lawsuit came from Carrols shareholders argued the price was low because Burger King had already boxed Carrols in Carrols position is that they didn't sell because Burger King gave them the best offer They sold because it was their only move left Burger King's position is the opposite They say they bought Carrols to get the remodels done fast, then break a thousand restaurants into the hands of a lot of small operators instead of one giant one Strategy or squeeze, the result is the same The largest Burger King franchisee on earth no longer exists

Zillow listing of the day You can now buy your Laguna Beach dream home for under $2M The only catch? No garage. No parking. Well, there is one spot for the owner... On Pacific Coast Highway And to get to the house you walk up a practically vertical set of stairs So don't forget your wallet, because you're not going back up for it But the view is priceless. Someone is going to buy this.

I spent the last five days in San Diego If you want to see how badly Los Angeles has failed as a city, drive two hours south Here's the thing about downtown San Diego. It's basically what downtown LA and Santa Monica should be, combined into one place A real city center that also sits right on the water The parks downtown are full of families with their kids and dogs Downtown LA, people and businesses avoid like the plague Santa Monica and Venice beach are both infested with homeless How could the two largest cities in California be so drastically different? How could San Diego could have this problem under control while LA has gotten so far out of hand? So I looked it up... In 2023 San Diego passed a camping ordinance. No tents in parks, near schools, or on the beach Then they actually enforced it They decided it wasn't acceptable and they stuck to it San Diego has 3,000 people sleeping on the street LA has 30,000 San Diego decided it wasn't acceptable LA decided we'd get used to it

Last week the boys and I were hangin, yes we only speak via FaceTime. They are selling a vacant fast food bldg and were trying to convince me to get a 2nd HELOC to afford their list price. We harnessed our inner Knakal by grabbing a ‘bat.’ Anyhow new coffee store coming soon…

I knew it was too good to be true...

In a shocking turn of events, 7 Brew just landed a haymaker on their rival Dutch Bros 7 Brew won the Salad and Go auction. All 73 sites are theirs for $143.2 million Dutch had this deal signed three weeks ago at $105M Then 7 Brew came over the top and Dutch chose not to swing back Dutch Bros took the $3.8M breakup fee and walked away from 73 finished drive-thrus Every one of those sites now goes to 7 Brew. 41 Arizona, 20 Texas, 6 Nevada, 6 Oklahoma. Roughly $2M a site to inherit somebody else's building. Not to own it. To rent it. That is how brutal the fight for drive-thru real estate has gotten And the landlords of these buildings have been on a rollercoaster Three weeks ago they had a bankrupt tenant and a 1,000 square foot vacant salad box. Now they potentially have the fastest growing coffee brand in America on their lease. But not everybody is clear yet. 7 Brew can still cut leases it can't operate. Objections are due September 17, hearing is the 21st

The luckiest landlords in America right now own a vacant Salad and Go ⠀ Salad and Go went back into bankruptcy court yesterday and asked the judge to blow up its own $105M sale to Dutch Bros ⠀ Instead, they want a head to head auction ⠀ Dutch Bros vs 7 Brew May the best beverage win ⠀ The hearing is this afternoon in Houston ⠀ If the judge signs off, they auction Monday Dutch offered over $2M a site for 51 of the leases in Arizona and Nevada ⠀ Not for the buildings...that's $2M per site for the right to be somebody's tenant ⠀ Then 7 Brew said they'd pay more ⠀ But they have to beat Dutch by $10M plus a $3.8M breakup fee ⠀ Timing of the Salad and Go bankruptcy could not have been more perfect This is a literal arms race over who can grow faster Both brands are willing to pay a premium to skip the entitlements, the permits, and the construction And more importantly....to keep their competitor from growing faster ⠀ Dutch Bros closed Q2 at 1,225 stores and wants 2,029 by 2029 ⠀ 7 Brew is north of 800 stores and opening more than 400 this year ⠀ Both want the exact box Salad and Go built ⠀ Let the games begin

“Goodfellas”

I recently sold a property in Compton ⠀ The rent was well above market and the tenant was national ⠀ We took it to market and got a ton of interest About 25 buyers toured the site ⠀ But 99% of them disappeared immediately after ⠀ The Buyer we ultimately went under contract with tried to retrade us the day before removing contingencies... ⠀ Not because of the rent. Not because of the tenant. ⠀ He did one last drive by the site and saw open prostitution on the sidewalk in the middle of the afternoon He sent me photos... So yes, Compton rents can be great But good luck ever selling the property

The Los Angeles mayoral race sums up the city so perfectly The incumbent allowed one of the most beautiful neighborhoods in the country to completely burn down And somehow her opponent is 10X worse

Be careful what you wish for

The greatest business/life lesson I ever learned: When someone shares a story, don’t try to one-up them Don’t pivot to your experience Be interested, not interesting People remember how you made them feel, not how impressive you tried to be

Honestly, why stop at 12? Let's remove all "anti-camping zones" Let everyone camp wherever they want And while we're at it, let's get rid of the rest of the laws that hold society together

Pizza Hut just sold for $2.7 billion ⠀ The new owners asked the CEO to stay ⠀ He said no ⠀ Aaron Powell has run Pizza Hut since 2021 Yum started a strategic review last November Quarters of falling store sales, ~250 U.S. closures in the first half of this year, and then they sold it ⠀ LongRange Capital gets everything outside China for $1.5 billion Yum China already closed on the China piece for $1.2 billion ⠀ Powell could have stayed, ridden out the transition, and taken credit for the turnaround ⠀ Instead, he walked ⠀ No successor. No next move announced. ⠀ A $2.7 billion pizza empire is changing hands and nobody knows who's driving

Third Street Promenade in Santa Monica used to be one of the most popular shopping destinations in America Now it's a ghost town, and everybody knows why, but nobody wants to say it out loud It's homelessness People didn't stop shopping on the Promenade over e-commerce They stopped because it doesn't feel safe anymore Especially at night, especially with kids Retail vacancy is near 30% Gap, Old Navy, H&M, Anthropologie, all recently closed their doors Now drive 20 minutes east to the Golden Triangle in Beverly Hills Vacancy is basically zero on the best blocks, and Rodeo is the second priciest retail street on earth Same county. Same weather. Same consumer with money to spend. The difference? This year's homless count Santa Monica: 718 Beverly Hills: 30 Simply put, Beverly Hills doesn't allow it Santa Monica does

Recently had dinner with a guy who bought a Texas Roadhouse property I asked him why he bought it? His response: "The parking lot" Just looked it up...yeah, he's never missing a rent check

There is a special place in hell for brokers who make you sign a full blown Confidentiality Agreement to access an Offering Memorandum for a Dollar General in Possum Trot, KY