33 years ago today, The Program premiered.

do the math TBB 42c

Remember during COVID, everyone upgraded their backyards and built pools and Leslie's decided to expand past 1,000 stores like this was all permanent? Well, it wasn't. And now now they're preparing to file for Chapter 11. Its lenders are equitizing and taking control of the business. The pandemic literally pulled forward years of pool spending. $LESL

The bond market is sending a very loud message. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield just hit 5.196%, its highest level since 2007. The 30-year reached 5.4816%, its highest since 2004. That matters. When investors can earn more than 5% lending money to the U.S. government, the hurdle rate for every other asset gets higher. Stocks have to justify their valuations. Companies have to refinance debt at higher rates. Mortgage rates stay elevated. Speculative assets have to compete with a risk-free return that suddenly looks pretty attractive. And the move is accelerating. Markets are now pricing roughly a 71% chance of another Fed rate hike in October after the Fed already raised rates by 25 basis points last week. Demand at recent Treasury auctions has also been weak, adding even more pressure to yields. None of this means markets automatically collapse because the 10-year is above 5%. That is not how this works. The real question is how high yields can go, and how quickly they can get there, before something finally stops absorbing the pressure. So far, stocks and $BTC have held up surprisingly well considering how dramatically borrowing costs have risen. That resilience matters. But the bond market is now moving into territory we have not seen in decades. Bitcoin will get the headlines. The Treasury market may be the more important chart right now.