"The most important thing in the next 3-4 years is data centers in space.
In every way, data centers in space, from a first principles perspective, are superior to data centers on earth.
In space, you can keep a satellite in the sun 24 hours a day. The sun is 30% more intense, which results in six times more irradiance than on Earth. So you don't need a battery.
The cooling in these data centers is incredibly complicated. Space cooling is free. You just put a radiator on the dark side of the satellite.
The only thing faster than a laser going through a fiber optic cable is a laser going through absolute vacuum. Link satellites with lasers, and you have a faster and more coherent network than any data center on Earth."
This is my fifth conversation with
@GavinSBaker.
Gavin understands semiconductors and AI as well as anyone I know and has a gift for making sense of the industry's complexity and nuance.
We discuss:
- Nvidia vs Google (GPUs + TPUs)
- Scaling laws and reasoning models
- The economics of AI compute
- Why Blackwell's delay mattered
- The bear case on the AI capex buildout
- Data centers in space
- The mistake SaaS companies are making
Few people love investing more than Gavin. His closing answer about why he loves it turned into a full reflection on his investing origin story, which I had never heard before.
Enjoy!
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
5:03 The Blackwell Transition
23:15 The Prisoner's Dilemma
27:12 The Bear Case: Edge AI
37:19 Meta, Open Source, and Model Depreciation
43:08 Geopolitics and Rare Earths
50:42 Data Centers in Space
56:06 Power Constraints as a Governor
1:11:31 The SaaS Mistake
1:16:17 Nuclear and Quantum
1:22:25 Gavin’s Investing Origins