Writer of Uncrewed's State Legislative Election Watch. Lauren Underwood Stan. Some people may know me as Chris. DM's are open! (He/Him)
Burbank, IL
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Since today is the start of Black History Month, here's a map of the black population of the United States by County. You can definitely spot the outline of the southern "black belt" here that stretches from Louisiana and Arkansas to Virginia.
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After losing #HD27 to a Turning Point USA activist in 2024, the Michigan Democrats are hoping that a more favorable environment will lead to them flipping back this downriver district.
They have their former State Rep here (Jaime Churches) running!
SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)
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2,393
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🚨NEW VERMONT POLL🚨
GOVERNOR
🔴Phil Scott (R) [inc] 46%
🔵Amanda Janoo (D) 43%
🟢3rd Parties: 4%
⚪️Undecided 8%
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
🔵Molly Gray (D) 59%
🔴Phil Scott (R) [inc] 32%
⚪️Undecided 9%
n=948 | ±3.2 MoE
articles.statenavigate.com/v…
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Massachusett's #HD8thBristol was a bit of a clustertruck back in 2024. Despite Trump winning it by 12 points, the Democrats held this open seat thanks to three Independents taking over 30% of the vote.
This year, it's a 1 vs 1, Democrat vs Republican battle
SLEW RATING: Toss-Up
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2,133
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🚨NEW POLL🚨
IA SD-35 (Trump +21)
Standard Weighting
🔵Zimmer 46% (incumbent)
🔴Stutting 43%
🔵Sand 47%
🔴Stutting 42%
Weighting with 2024 Recall
🔴Stutting 47%
🔵Zimmer 45% (incumbent)
🔴Stutting 45%
🔵Sand 45%
articles.statenavigate.com/i…
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419,476
Pritzker+20, Stratton+13, Kwame+14, Alexi+18, Croke+11
And Trump underwater 33-61. Yeah, Republicans are cooked in Illinois next month.
PPP poll | 9/30-10/1
Illinois statewide races 2026
Illinois Governor
🟦JB Pritzker 54% (incumbent)
🟥Darren Bailey 34%
⬜️Collin Corbett 6%
——
US Senate
🟦Juliana Stratton 49%
🟥Don Tracy 36%
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The Maryland Democrats are targeting #LD04 in suburban Frederick next month. They have the opportunity to flip 3 House seats and the Senate seat here.
With a strong Democratic top of the ticket, it's possible!
SLEW RATINGS: Lean D (2/3 House Seats), Lean R (1 House Seat/Senate)
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🚨@StateNavigate POLLS🚨
WV SD-1 (Trump +39)
🔴Chapman 48%
🔵Fluharty 43%
Trump Net Approval +2
Morrisey Approval Even
WV SD-8 (Trump +27)
🔴Wheeler 46%
🔵Hundley 40%
Trump Net Net Approval -7
Morrisey Net Approval -30
articles.statenavigate.com/w…
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Over in Maine's #HD44, the Independent incumbent there is term-limited. This should mean the Republicans are favored to flip this Trump+5 district right?
Well, another Independent is running and getting a lot of the same support the outgoing incumbent got.
SLEW RATING: Lean Ind
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The state legislative implications of a close Phil Scott race are obviously really bad for Republicans. They broke the House supermajority and nearly flipped the Senate in 2024 thanks to Scott's landslide win.
This year? Expect a lot of seats to flip blue
We've reached more 18-29 and non-college voters in our poll today and this is looking more like a Tilt R/Toss-Up race than Lean R. Final results will be slightly different but pretty similar, out Tuesday AM. VT-GOV is definitely competitive.
projects.statenavigate.com/i…
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State Rep. Eddie Morales Jr. (D) won re-election in TX HD-74 by D+3.4 in 2024, outperforming Harris by ~18.1%. His strong performance in his home county, Maverick, which saw the largest rightward shift in 2024, helped drive this. Morales and Garza will rematch this November.
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Despite the Kentucky Democrats losing their incumbent in #HD95, a Trump+58 district in the heart of coal country, it's still a competitive race there this year.
Why? They got former State Senator Johnny Ray Turner (who's really popular here) to run!
SLEW RATING: Toss-Up
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Y'know, I never considered the effects of the Dan Osborn/Brian Bengs Independent-types running for state legislature. Turns out, it might actually work!
PA SD-46 (Trump +28) LIVE POLL first topline results just went up...
🟣Jodi Borello 44.8%
🔴Camera Bartolotta 43.8%
⚪️Undecided 11.7%
projects.statenavigate.com/i…
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Despite Kansas's #HD41 backing Trump by 17 points, the Republicans have effectively conceded it. Why? A strong Democrat (former State Senator Jeff Pittman) and a Republican accused of abusing her children.
The House GOP cut her loose last month.
SLEW RATING: Likely D (FLIP)
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Iowa's #SD35 was the first district in the country to flip after Trump got inaugurated for a second term. This Trump+21 district was flipped blue by Mike Zimmer just a week after Trump was sworn in.
Now Zimmer has to defend it, a big ask, but possible
SLEW RATING: Toss-Up
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5,044
With the Republican incumbent in Indiana's #SD01 getting demolished in the primary after voting against redistricting, the Democrats have a chance to flip this Trump+7 district in Lake County blue.
It's bluer downballot too, which should help.
SLEW RATING: Toss-Up
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Can a Democratic Socialist flip a Republican-held seat in DuPage County? We'll find out in #SD24 as DSA-backed Ben McAdams challenges Republican incumbent Seth Lewis in this Harris+3 seat.
Lewis is a rare labor-backed Republican (AFL-CIO endorsed).
SLEW Rating: Lean D (FLIP)
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11,678
Covering the mighty city of Pocatello, Idaho's #LD29 will be a major battleground this year. This Trump+12 district is more Democratic-friendly downballot, especially in non-Presidential years.
SLEW RATINGS: Lean D (Senate), Lean R (House Seat A), Lean D (FLIP) (House Seat B)
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A chaotic three-way race has emerged in Hawaii's #HD14 (Lahaina) between a Democrat-turned-Republican incumbent, a Democrat, and a Green Party candidate who has attracted a LOT of union/progressive support.
Pure toss-up here, expect chaos.
SLEW RATING: Toss-Up
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22,413
In a year where Georgia Democrats look like they'll do good on all levels, there's one seat in the State House where that might not happen, #HD128 in rural Georgia.
This Trump+4 district has trended rightwards in recent cycles and has no incumbent running.
SLEW RATING: Toss-Up
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