Distressed PE Investor, previously BB IB
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Private equity firms when their PortCo CEO says he needs a few more quarters to come back to growth (they need to refi next quarter)
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I very much agree with this take. Analyst programs won’t get axed, but nobody is going to hire as large of a class as they used to.
I’ve heard from friends still at banks that return offer rates for interns were significantly depressed this year, unrelated to broader market conditions.
If you want the return offer you need to significantly stand out, and you certainly can’t be just a GPT wrapper.
Unfortunately, I think that we are at a point where AI has gotten good enough that new graduates add very little value to most jobs in finance
This was always the case, but the rationale for hiring young talent before AI was two-fold
1. They soak up grunt work around the office, including tedious number entry into Excel, logo aligning, calendar invites, and administrative tasks on a deal
2. Train up the next generation of talent who can go on to become senior leaders in the future
The first one has been pretty much already solved by AI to a large degree. Even if not fully replaceable today, the state of progress tells me that almost all finance grunt work will be handled by AI in the next 5-10 years. Probably even sooner
The second one still creates incentive for companies to hire young graduates, but at a much slower pace than before.
> AI leads to higher productivity across senior management and mid-level employees, freeing up their time to focus on bigger picture
> Need fewer senior management and mid-level employees in the future due to this productivity boost, which pushes down the need for young graduates even further
> Even if you dont completely shut down the analyst program, the number of analysts you need on the job certainly shrinks down by 20-30% at least, likely in the next 3-5 years
> New analysts coming in are lower quality due to being reliant on AI during their college years and requiring AI to do any sort of critical thinking. This in turn hurts their ability to get promoted down the line
All of these factors combined likely lead to a very difficult hiring environment for students studying finance in college today.
The best piece of advice I can really give is to embrace the tools as fast as you can and try to keep your critical thinking and imagination skills intact while doing so.
This is going to be much tougher than it sounds, especially as AI progresses in the next 5 years
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Tons of DMs, here is the insane list of departures
- Co Head of Real Estate (Kathleen McCarthy): left December 2025
- Head of Growth (Jon Korngold): left April 2026
- Head of Private Credit (Jonathan Bock): left July 2026
- Head of Real Estate (Nadeem Meghji): left September 2026
- Head of Private Equity (Joe Baratta): leaving December 2026
The fascinating thing?
Blackstone is not replacing them. Quoting Bloomberg on Meghji and Baratta departures:
"Their responsibilities are being spread among a wider group of chiefs, accelerating a shift away from an era when a few dealmaking personalities built investing empires and amassed enormous influence within the company."
(Below is from the current Blackstone website)
HOLY SHIT BLACKSTONE
Within 6 months:
- Head of real estate: pushed out
- Head of growth: pushed out
- Head of private equity: in talks to leave
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> be Joe Baratta, look like the stereotypical Private Equity billionaire investor
> you are born in California, in 1971, graduated from Georgetown University in 1993 and work at Morgan Stanley M&A
> join Blackstone 5 years after working in 1998, there are only 25 people in the PE group
>in 2001, Steve Schwarzman asks you to go start the European office as #2, you are 30
> kills it over there, builds European office and do stellar deals including Merlin and Center Parcs
> in 2004, at 33 years old (!), you become a Partner
> in 2010, you become Head of Europe
> in 2012, you become Global Head of Private Equity and return to New York
> in the 2010s, every Blackstone PE fund generates 8-12%
> you do not care, you become a billionaire
> in 2026, you say "Enough" you might make a splash in your home state of California and potentially explore a run for public office
HOLY SHIT BLACKSTONE
Within 6 months:
- Head of real estate: pushed out
- Head of growth: pushed out
- Head of private equity: in talks to leave
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HOLY SHIT BLACKSTONE
Within 6 months:
- Head of real estate: pushed out
- Head of growth: pushed out
- Head of private equity: in talks to leave
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Your barber thinks you could always use a haircut.
Same concept is true in finance. It’s why the majority of sell-side research recommendations are buys and why so many destructive M&A occurs. Always consider the underlying motives of those giving you advice.
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