New on Cars and Capitalists:
Paul Gu (
@paulxgu), CEO and Co-Founder of
@Upstart.
@Upstart is an AI lender worth $2.5B today. They did $1B in revenue in 2025, up 64%, grew originations 86%, and were profitable. Paul took over as CEO from co-founder Dave Girouard (
@davegirouard) in May.
Before that, Paul was Upstart's CTO and built its first credit models. He's a Thiel Fellow and Yale dropout who came out of quant finance.
In this episode of Cars and Capitalists, we discuss:
0:00 - "The model's gonna suck": why you can't copy Upstart
2:02 - Three sheep, two breeds, one A/B test
8:13 - The core business: 50 million Americans the prime market won't serve
21:20 - Inflating away the debt vs. the hard choices nobody will make
29:58 - Cartoon math: $100 of loans, $5 of contribution, a 20% fund
41:33 - The real moat: Jane Street techniques pointed at consumer credit
58:03 - The golf trip problem, and paying dealers to pick you
1:06:03 - "No one wants to fund a new product. It's like nuclear waste"
1:16:51 - Killing auto refi, the product they were best at
1:24:42 - 2040: relevant to economic history, and unambiguously pro-human
Thanks to our sponsor
@rootvc.