Let me help you understand my math here. I’ll use Parker County - my former home county.
In 2016, Trump won it by +67.1%, margin of 38,124
In 2018, Cruz won it by 62.6%, margin of 34,114. There were 54,495 votes, down from 56,817 in 2016. 95.9% of the 2016 turnout was there in 2018 for the Senate race.
In 2020, there were 76,128 votes in Parker for president. In 2022, for governor and with no threat of blue Texas, there were 63,437 votes, or 83.33% of the 2020 presidential total.
In 2024, Trump won it by 66.4%, a margin of 60,300. These mid-sized exurban counties are growing, keeping margin %, and expanding raw vote power a lot. There were 90,840 votes.
So in forecasting Paxton in Parker County, and keeping this exercise as beneficial to Talarico as possible, I am AVERAGING the 2016-18 and 2020-22 differentials, coming up with an expectation that 89.6% of the 2024 presidential vote will manifest in 2026 Senate - that gives me an expected vote count of 81,412.
I am then addressing margin and taking 5 points off Trump’s margin, getting Paxton down to 61.4% margin in Parker, down 1.2% from Cruz in 2018. Paxton taking 81,412 votes at a margin of 61.4% yields a raw margin of 49,971. That is +15,857 more votes of margin than Cruz in 2018.
If turnout equalizes to the 2016-18 differential, when people were worried O’Rourke would win, and the reduced margin stays the same as I’ve imputed it, then Paxton would see 86,770 total votes, and with a margin of +61.4%, win it by 53,277.
The ONLY way the Paxton/TX GOP can lose is for 2014 turnout to happen to the GOP only. That was 66.7% of the 2012 presidential vote in Parker, which Would bring us just 60,590. Paxton could even take a Trump margin of 66.4% and only win it by 40,232, still moving past Cruz by over 6,000 from 2018, but manifesting elsewhere, sandbagging his margins and allowing for the 10 or so counties Talarico really needs to pass him by.
Long story short, if Texas Republicans vote, Talarico can’t win the race. And I suspect that is what the millions and millions are for, to generate as close to a presidential turnout as possible.
I’m going to try to make the Texas math as simple as I can for everyone. Be sure to READ.
If the county is in red, I expect Paxton to win it by more votes than Cruz did in 2018, or lose it by fewer.
If it is in blue, my pessimistic forecast has Talarico winning it by more votes than O’Rourke in 2018, or losing it by fewer.
I expect Paxton to end up better off in 235 counties, having his largest margin expansions in El Paso, Hidalgo, Montgomery, Parker, and Comal Counties, with 18 counties putting him up between 3,000 and 10,000 additional margin, and 34 more between 1,000 and 3,000.
The total margin expansions in my pessimistic model for the red-shaded counties comes out to +292,179 additional margin, with turnout numbers blunted and margins lowered either by 5% from 2024 presidential, or lowered to 2020 presidential in the case of counties like El Paso and those in the Rio Grande Valley.
Cruz’s 2018 margin of 214,921 + 292,179 new margin out of 235 counties comes out to Paxton up by +507,100 before we begin assessing the 19 counties I expect Talarico to progress in by raw vote margin over 2018 Senate.
In order to get the race to dead even, Talarico will need to win these counties by this much MORE than O’Rourke did:
Harris +109k
Travis +88k
Dallas +67k
Bexar +65k
Williamson +19k
Hays +16k
Tarrant +40k
Lose by less or flip
Denton +10k
Collin +27k
Brazoria +8k
Kaufman, Bell, Ellis, Lubbock, Brazos, Bastrop, Caldwell, Brewster +15k together
And then scrape up another +43k margin throughout the state to TIE.
Approximate
Margin for Talarico required in the blues
Harris 61-39
Travis 77-23
Dallas 69-31
Bexar 62-38
Tarrant 53-47
Fort Bend 59-41
Williamson 54-46
Yes, there is a pathway to win. It requires this scenario:
Turnout between 2018/2022 thresholds for GOP
Turnout at same rate as 2018 Beto boom in the blue-shaded counties.
-5% or more Trump margin for Paxton + regression to 2020 presidential in El Paso/Rio Grande Valley
+5% or more Talarico margin over 2018 senate in blue-shaded counties.
If you’re tired of being gaslit by polls suggesting a +600,000 margin is possible, then there are other ways of doing election math. The opportunity is there. It requires a lot to go right for Talarico.